Crises and Natural Disasters: a Review of Two Schools of Study Drawing on Australian Wildfire Experience

The connection between “schools” of study focusing on crises and on natural disasters is explored. After considering the rise of separate schools, the article notes significant attempts to integrate them and suggests that, while natural disasters and other big crises have much in common, there are still some important differences that need to be taken into account in designing relevant management systems. Drawing particularly on Australian wildfire experience, the article then looks more briefly at the question of political leadership in disaster situations, and at serious problems that often occur in the reporting of those situations.

抗战时期的贵州灾荒特点及原因研究

抗战时期的贵州是一个自然灾害非常严重的省区。这时的贵州灾荒具有年年有灾、灾害种类齐全、灾荒程度严重等方面的特点。究其成因,既有自然环境因素,也有社会条件因素。前者包括多峻山、梯田,少河流、平原,多草房木屋,多火灾、虫灾发生的有利环境等方面。后者指政治的不良、劣绅奸商的欺压盘剥以及农民本身素质的低下等因素。     

基于情景的社区应急疏散管理系统框架

在回顾总结关于应急疏散理论与系统设计研究现状的基础上,考虑灾害应对的不确定性与复杂性,提出基于情景的社区应急疏散管理系统框架。该系统结构在基本应急疏散管理及数据集成的基础上,构建致灾因子、疏散对象与抗灾因子的三类模块,对社区疏散系统功能与架构作出再设计,并结合案例推理技术辅助疏散方案的生成与修正。     

北京农村社区防灾减灾问题浅析

农村防灾减灾对于农村经济社会发展乃至国家现代化建设全局都有特殊重要性。社区是开展危机预防和应对的最基层管理组织,农村社区开展防灾减灾工作具有迫切的必要性和积极的意义。为构建系统的、可持续的防灾减灾体系,北京针对其自身的灾害风险类型及特点,在探析当前农村社区防灾减灾能力建设不足的同时,借鉴国内外的经验启示,提出应明确农村社区灾害风险,健全灾害应急预案、开展防灾减灾宣传教育与培训、完善减灾基础设施,并动员各种社会力量参与减灾活动,提高社区综合防御灾害能力。     

自组织特征映射在鄱阳湖地区洪涝灾害研究中的应用

自组织特征映射是一种人工神经网络方法, 可以同时实现模式识别和数据分类。它可以将高维数据间复杂、非线性的统计关系转换为低维形式中简单的几何关系。该文利用自组织特征映射方法对鄱阳湖地区月降水强度和月高水位变化模式进行分析, 对鄱阳湖地区洪水灾害形成原因进行归纳。     

Risk Perception and Disaster Preparedness in Immigrants and Canadian‐Born Adults: Analysis of a National Survey on Similarities and Differences

Research has documented that immigrants tend to experience more negative consequences from natural disasters compared to native‐born individuals, although research on how immigrants perceive and respond to natural disaster risks is sparse. We investigated how risk perception and disaster preparedness for natural disasters in immigrants compared to Canadian‐born individuals as justifications for culturally‐adapted risk communication and management. To this end, we analyzed the ratings on natural disaster risk perception beliefs and preparedness behaviors from a nationally representative survey (N = 1,089). Factor analyses revealed three underlying psychological dimensions of risk perception: external responsibility for disaster management, self‐preparedness responsibility, and illusiveness of preparedness. Although immigrants and Canadian‐born individuals shared the three‐factor structure, there were differences in the salience of five risk perception beliefs. Despite these differences, immigrants and Canadian‐born individuals were similar in the level of risk perception dimensions and disaster preparedness. Regression analyses revealed self‐preparedness responsibility and external responsibility for disaster management positively predicted disaster preparedness whereas illusiveness of preparedness negatively predicted disaster preparedness in both groups. Our results showed that immigrants’ risk perception and disaster preparedness were comparable to their Canadian‐born counterparts. That is, immigrant status did not necessarily yield differences in risk perception and disaster preparedness. These social groups may benefit from a risk communication and management strategy that addresses these risk perception dimensions to increase disaster preparedness. Given the diversity of the immigrant population, the model remains to be tested by further population segmentation.     

The Return Period Analysis of Natural Disasters with Statistical Modeling of Bivariate Joint Probability Distribution

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters’ formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk‐based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis.     

吴兴沈氏的士族化及其相关问题

沈氏各房支的士族化,尽管途径有差异,时间有先后,却莫不通过依附皇权而得实现,且在士族化后,仍将党附、卫护皇权作为隆身显家之道。同时也正因为沈氏宗人有意通过党附皇权而渔利,故难免卷入权力斗争的漩涡而深受其害,是以该宗族屡罹祸难。然而,一则得益于乡里根基的雄厚,二则受惠于尚武特质的保持,吴兴沈氏在刘宋一代始终厕身于士族行列。     

可持续灾害运作管理的概念与绩效测量指标研究

为了挽救生命,缓解幸存者痛苦和促进发展,全面理解可持续灾害运作管理的内涵并建立相应的绩效测量指标已成为当前亟待解决的重要问题。在梳理灾害运作管理与可持续发展定义的基础上,界定可持续灾害运作管理的概念与内涵。从社会、环境和经济三个方面,提出了可持续灾害运作管理绩效测量的潜在指标。研究表明：提出的可持续灾害运作管理的定义及其绩效测量指标有助于加强可持续发展理论与灾害运作管理决策之间的联系;为建立面向可持续发展的决策模型提供科学依据,从而改善救援效果,满足救援过程的可持续要求。     

《周礼》备荒救灾思想浅论

《周礼》中已形成了较为完备的备荒、抗灾、救灾思想,其主要措施有储粮备荒、禳天弭灾、节财省用、减赋免役、调粟赈民等。救荒赈灾的费用主要来源于国家财政,同时,积极鼓励邻里互助,共度灾荒。