近代西北自然灾害与人口变迁——自然灾害与近代西北社会研究

以往关于人口历史的研究,多注重战争等人为因素对人口下降造成的直接影响,而忽视了天灾在人口的变化中起到的作用。综现西北近代百年历史,自然灾害给西北地区带来的第一恶果即严重的人口问题。造成人口的大量死亡和迁徒。研究西北自然灾害与人口问题的关系是透视西北近代社会的重要窗口。为我们了解西北近代史提供了重要视角。     

Mutilation and metaphor: managing the Monongah dead*

This article documents the use of metaphor in coordinating ‘backstage’ responses to the greatest mine disaster in US history, which left hundreds dead, and many were mutilated beyond recognition. The use of metaphor is illustrated in the handling of the dead, from the point of discovery of carnage in the mines through to burial, including ‘identification’ of unrecognizable bodies and body parts – a system of actions that remained unintelligible for over a century. This research illustrates the importance of emergent, unprescribed, furtive, and coordinated actions in responding to an unexpected and catastrophic incident. Discussion suggests the general import of emergent order for systems of domination in history, command economies, and rational-legal administrations, including organized responses to mass death.     

Disaster Relief and Crisis Intervention with Deaf Communities: Lessons Learned from the Japanese Deaf Community

ABSTRACT

During natural disasters and crises, the deaf and hard of hearing community might not have full accessibility to all of the information shared with the larger hearing community. This could be due to the lack of awareness among social work professionals about these cultural and linguistic needs of this minority population. The purpose of this article is to explore the challenges faced by the deaf community and to discuss culturally and linguistically appropriate crisis intervention and mobilization to natural disaster situations based on the experiences of the Japanese deaf communities affected by the Kobe and Tohoku earthquakes.     

Disaster Preparedness among Older Adults: Social Support,Community Participation,and Demographic Characteristics

This study examined factors associated with disaster preparedness among older adults, with special attention paid to demographic characteristics, social support, and community participation. From a larger study about disaster preparedness of persons with disabilities, a total of 719 adults aged 55 years and older were used for this study. The results of the logistic regressions indicate that individuals who have higher levels of social support and more connections to community organizations are more likely to be prepared for disaster-related emergency situations. In another model, using resource preparedness as the dependent variable, an interaction effect between social support and income was found. Overall, higher income and higher informal support are related to a higher level of resources for disaster preparedness. However, the relationship between income and disaster preparedness is much stronger for those sub-groups receiving more informal support. The findings of this study expand knowledge regarding issues of disaster preparedness among older adults and demonstrates the importance of social resources and networks. This study suggests an intervention model for decision-makers and community leaders in terms of providing information and advice to members of their communities about how to adequately prepare for natural disasters.     

Considerations for the provision of prosthetic services in post-disaster contexts: the Haiti Amputee Coalition

Following the 2010 earthquake, Hôpital Albert Schweitzer and Hanger Prosthetics founded a prosthetics shop in rural Haiti. This research explored barriers to clients’ continued use of their limb, with the goal of improving programming and thus increasing rates of success. Methods used included ethnographic observation, semi-structured interviews and focus groups. The participants included retrospective and prospective prosthetic users as well as in-house clients. Data were collected from over 100 individuals. Despite gratitude for the services, many clients reported they did not utilize their limbs on a daily basis and provided insightful critiques to the programme and suggestions for improvement. Lack of clear communication with the clients was a major problem in the programme. Clients expressed gratitude for the sense of community within the programme but noted the lack of outreach after discharge. Other important concerns were programme sustainability and the provision of more holistic care for individuals with disabilities.     

Disaster preparedness among households in the Badakhshan Province in Afghanistan: A baseline evaluation study

This paper presents a critical analysis of the level of disaster preparedness among households in the Badakhshan Province in Afghanistan. Based on an analysis of baseline data collected as part of a project aimed at strengthening the disaster response in this province, this paper emphasizes the complexities of disaster preparedness among Afghan households, including a critical gap in knowledge, a lack of resources, and limitations in existing community responses to disasters. The findings reveal that less economic security, less knowledge of emergencies and emergency plans, being a female head of household, and having prior disaster experience tended to predict lower levels of preparedness among households. Disaster‐preparedness interventions targeted at improving the knowledge of hazards and hazard plans, as well as enhancing the livelihood and income security of affected households, could minimize the negative impact of disasters. Because most households relied on social networks and indigenous preparedness measures, future research should examine the nature of such measures and their effectiveness in mitigating the impact of disasters on this population.     

Targeting Disaster Aid in Post‐Tsunami Sri Lanka

In this article we examine the allocation of boats and houses, the two major types of aid made available to tsunami‐affected fishery households in Sri Lanka. We investigate the effectiveness of targeting by looking at the distributional impacts and the determinants of allocation of these transfers at the household level. We find that houses were much better targeted than boats in terms of compensating for the losses due to the tsunami. We also find that the ex post distribution of boats is much more unequal than the distribution that prevailed before the tsunami. The reverse is true for the distribution of houses, for which the government took a much more active role.     

An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay,NYC

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.     

Prioritized reconstruction of healthcare facilities after earthquakes based on recovery of emergency services

Earthquakes can disrupt the healthcare system heavily, leading to long wait times and many untreated patients for years after the event. Emergency services, in particular, must return to preearthquake functionality as soon as possible such that patients, especially critically injured ones, can be treated promptly. However, reconstruction and restoration of emergency services can take years. Due to limited reconstruction resources, decision-makers cannot reconstruct all hospitals simultaneously. They are typically forced to prioritize the reconstruction order, and this process is often poorly planned. This article models emergency services as an M/M/s queuing system that accounts for prioritized treatment of critical patients and formulates a greedy algorithm to plan for an effective healthcare system reconstruction. The algorithm finds the reconstruction ordering of hospital buildings such that emergency patients have the shortest time to receiving medical care possible. We show our greedy algorithm's good performance for small problem instances, with average deviations from the optimal solution below 16%. Further, we apply our methodology to a case study of Lima, Peru, under a hypothetical M8.0 earthquake. The application demonstrates that compared to typically implemented policies, a policy guided by our formulation results in shorter time to treatment and reduces the number of untreated patients over the course of the reconstruction period by more than a factor of 3 in a worst-case scenario with 70% hospital capacity disruption. Finally, we demonstrate that our formulation can be integrated into risk analysis through Monte Carlo simulations to inform decision-makers of reconstruction plans after future earthquakes.     

灾害社会科学:基于脆弱性视角的整合范式

灾害的社会与自然双重属性共同形塑了灾害多学科交叉研究谱系,灾害研究方法与话语体系亦呈现区隔性。随着现实与理论的双重驱动,灾害研究迈入整合研究的全新阶段,新范式的发展与完善便成为核心议题。本文聚焦灾害社会科学中的脆弱性研究范式兴起与演进过程,并基于脆弱性视角提出研究灾害发生与演化的本土化整合分析话语体系。