Resilience Analysis of Countries under Disasters Based on Multisource Data

Disasters occur almost daily in the world. Because emergencies frequently have no precedent, are highly uncertain, and can be very destructive, improving a country's resilience is an efficient way to reduce risk. In this article, we collected more than 20,000 historical data points from disasters from 207 countries to enable us to calculate the severity of disasters and the danger they pose to countries. In addition, 6 primary indices (disaster, personal attribute, infrastructure, economics, education, and occupation) including 38 secondary influencing factors are considered in analyzing the resilience of countries. Using these data, we obtained the danger, expected number of deaths, and resilience of all 207 countries. We found that a country covering a large area is more likely to have a low resilience score. Through sensitivity analysis of all secondary indices, we found that population density, frequency of disasters, and GDP are the three most critical factors affecting resilience. Based on broad‐spectrum resilience analysis of the different continents, Oceania and South America have the highest resilience, while Asia has the lowest. Over the past 50 years, the resilience of many countries has been improved sharply, especially in developing countries. Based on our results, we analyze the comprehensive resilience and provide some optimal suggestions to efficiently improve resilience.     

自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究

关键基础设施保护是突发事件应急管理的重要对象构成,确定风险和保护排序是其保护机制的基本依据。在自然异动约束下,本文将信息扩散理论的超越概率引入风险分析模型,研究跨区域网络级联失效造成的风险,提出了确定关键基础设施网络构件的风险等级及保护排序的方法。以覆冰灾害下电网为例,研究了电网中不同支路在覆冰灾害下面临风险程度,与基本脆弱点进行对比,验证以异动风险作为保护参考的合理性。     

Exploring the Predictors of Organizational Preparedness for Natural Disasters

There is an extensive body of research on the determinants of disaster preparedness at the individual and household levels. The same cannot be said for the organizational level. Hence, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the predictors of organizational preparedness for natural disasters. Since leaders of organizations have an incentive to overstate their level of preparedness and because surveys of organizational leaders suffer from selection bias and low response rates, we take the novel approach of interviewing employees about the organizations that employ them. Using an online survey, we collected information from a national sample of 2,008 U.S. employees and estimated the predictors of preparedness at the organizational level. We find, among other results, that organization size (facility level) is a consistent predictor of preparedness at the organizational level. We conclude with policy recommendations and outline an agenda for future research on organizational preparedness for natural disasters.     

Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs

While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane.     

中国传统伦理情怀的当代价值——地震灾难引发的伦理反思

现代化社会对利益的追求使人们逐渐淡化了传统以血缘亲情为基础、以人与人情感关系为纽带的伦理情怀。人们过分张扬理性，追求个性，结果导致社会情感匮乏、精神贫困。2008年的汶川地震使得中国的传统伦理情怀重新被唤醒，血缘亲情的情感文化所具有的重大价值被彻底表现出来。相信这种人与人之间的血缘情感、民众对国家和同胞的大爱，势必会成为中国今后复兴最为重要的软实力。     

浅谈1941—1947年豫东黄泛区蝗灾

在1941～1947年间,豫东黄泛区频繁发生的蝗灾具有数量多、范围广、危害大等明显特点.肆虐的蝗灾,不仅给豫东泛区的农业生产造成惨重的损失,而且引发了饥荒.为防治蝗灾,当时的河南省政府制定了种种措施,并取得了一定成效.     

近代西北地区自然灾害特点规律初探——自然灾害与近代西北社会研究之一

西北地区是各种自然灾害频发地区，尤其是在近代，自然灾害成灾严重，对社会产生许多负面影响。研究近代西北地区自然灾害，对于更加深入地认识西北社会历史，探讨西北地区自然灾害的爆发规律以及更好地预防和控制自然灾害都有积极的现实意义。     

浅析人事档案用户需求及服务策略

分析了现实环境下人事档案的利用方面,概括了用户需求的特点并根据这些特点提出了人事档案工作人员的服务策略,以更好地满足用户需求。     

老人和孩子：灾难性事件的一个新闻图片框架分析——以《人民日报》报道日本3.11大地震为例

老人和孩子已经成了灾难性事件的一个常用框架,《人民日报》一周内对日本311地震的报道,运用框架理论,具体分析新闻图像的框架效果,使得该结论能够应用到更广泛的大众传播中,达到更好的传播效果。     

自然灾害与唐初东突厥之衰亡

唐贞观初年漠南地区发生了严重的自然灾害 ,东突厥的各种社会矛盾都在这场空前的灾害中被暴露和激化。灾害使东突厥社会陷入全面危机 ,并最终导致东突厥的衰亡。从东突厥的衰亡 ,我们也可以看出在古代社会中灾害对游牧民族历史发展的重要影响和维护民族团结对于游牧民族抗御自然灾害的重要意义