防疫救灾的社会自组织建设与韧性培育

从“社会脆弱性”视角看.武汉爆发的疫情因社会的存在方式而传播,“封城”等防控措施对切断人际传播、控制疫情具有积极作用.但在某种程度上也会伤及社会本身,呈现“疫情-社会”的存亡悖论。防疫救灾要依赖社会的活力被调动起来,防疫又会在某种程度上伤及社会,构成了两难困境。通过各种途径提升培育国民自我管理、自我服务等社会组织能力能够有效减轻传染病疫情对社会的伤害,培植社会韧性,使社会本身能够以主动方式在维护自身的时候战胜疫情灾害。     

How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods

Evaluating the economic impacts caused by capital destruction is an effective method for disaster management and prevention, but the magnitude of the economic impact of labor disruption on an economic system remains unclear. This article emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters. Based on the principle of disasters and resilience theory, our model integrates nonlinear recovery of labor losses and the demand of labor from outside the disaster area into the dynamic evaluation of the economic impact in the postdisaster recovery period. We exemplify this through a case study: the flood disaster that occurred in Wuhan city, China, on July 6, 2016 (the “7.6 Wuhan flood disaster”). The results indicate that (i) the indirect economic impacts of the “7.6 Wuhan flood disaster” will underestimate 15.12% if we do not consider labor disruption; (ii) the economic impact in secondary industry caused by insufficient labor forces accounts for 42.27% of its total impact, while that in the tertiary industry is 36.29%, which can cause enormous losses if both industries suffer shocks; and (iii) the agricultural sector of Wuhan city experiences an increase in output demand of 0.07% that is created by the introduction of 50,000 short‐term laborers from outside the disaster area to meet the postdisaster reconstruction need. These results provide evidence for the important role of labor disruption and prove that it is a nonnegligible component of postdisaster economic recovery and postdisaster reduction.     

自然灾害背景的公共危机动员模式选择

由于公共危机具有突发性及瞬时破坏力比较大等特征,确立有效的动员模式至关重要。在公共危机动员模式的选择上,学术界一致认为危机管理应该从政治动员为主走向社会动员为主,实现社会的自我动员。而实际上,从动员评价体系四个指标的比较来看,政治动员仍应是公共危机动员的主导模式。新时期应建构以政治动员为主导、政治动员和社会动员良性互动的混合动员模式。为此,须提升党的凝聚力和政府的公信力,实现动员话语的人性化,充分发挥社会动员的作用。     

信息公开背景下我国高校人事档案管理研究

信息公开为高校人事档案信息公开性研究提供了依据和借鉴。就高校人事档案信息公开的主要内容、依据以及人事档案信息公开的重要性进行阐述,并着重从思想方面、制度建设、公开范围、数字化建设以及专业队伍建设等方面提出了信息公开背景下高校人事档案管理工作的可行性对策。     

《综合减灾法》的立法构想

《自然灾害救助条例》在效力等级与调整内容上的缺陷与现行的大量分灾种单行法标志着《综合减灾法》的立法条件已基本成熟。该法在科学揭示减灾体系的特征、结构与功能的基础上,建立以防御、救助、重建三个系列为主干的综合性减灾法律体系,将有效调控、保障与监督我国的灾害防减工作。     

Empirical Estimation of the Conditional Probability of Natech Events Within the United States

Natural disasters are the cause of a sizeable number of hazmat releases, referred to as “natechs.” An enhanced understanding of natech probability, allowing for predictions of natech occurrence, is an important step in determining how industry and government should mitigate natech risk. This study quantifies the conditional probabilities of natechs at TRI/RMP and SICS 1311 facilities given the occurrence of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods. During hurricanes, a higher probability of releases was observed due to storm surge (7.3 releases per 100 TRI/RMP facilities exposed vs. 6.2 for SIC 1311) compared to category 1–2 hurricane winds (5.6 TRI, 2.6 SIC 1311). Logistic regression confirms the statistical significance of the greater propensity for releases at RMP/TRI facilities, and during some hurricanes, when controlling for hazard zone. The probability of natechs at TRI/RMP facilities during earthquakes increased from 0.1 releases per 100 facilities at MMI V to 21.4 at MMI IX. The probability of a natech at TRI/RMP facilities within 25 miles of a tornado was small (～0.025 per 100 facilities), reflecting the limited area directly affected by tornadoes. Areas inundated during flood events had a probability of 1.1 releases per 100 facilities but demonstrated widely varying natech occurrence during individual events, indicating that factors not quantified in this study such as flood depth and speed are important for predicting flood natechs. These results can inform natech risk analysis, aid government agencies responsible for planning response and remediation after natural disasters, and should be useful in raising awareness of natech risk within industry.     

Validating Resilience and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Natural Disasters

Due to persistent and serious threats from natural disasters around the globe, many have turned to resilience and vulnerability research to guide disaster preparation, recovery, and adaptation decisions. In response, scholars and practitioners have put forth a variety of disaster indices, based on quantifiable metrics, to gauge levels of resilience and vulnerability. However, few indices are empirically validated using observed disaster impacts and, as a result, it is often unclear which index should be preferred for each decision at hand. Thus, we compare and empirically validate five of the top U.S. disaster indices, including three resilience indices and two vulnerability indices. We use observed disaster losses, fatalities, and disaster declarations from the southeastern United States to empirically validate each index. We find that disaster indices, though thoughtfully substantiated by literature and theoretically persuasive, are not all created equal. While four of the five indices perform as predicted in explaining damages, only three explain fatalities and only two explain disaster declarations as expected by theory. These results highlight the need for disaster indices to clearly state index objectives and structure underlying metrics to support validation of the results based on these goals. Further, policymakers should use index results carefully when developing regional policy or investing in resilience and vulnerability improvement projects.     

灾害风险下应急资源调配的超网络优化研究

针对应急网络中具有不同属性特征的各主体、以及灾害风险演变与应急资源调配间的相互作用,本文构建了一个以资源调配量和灾害风险度为网络流、包含"出救点、分发中心、受灾点"的三层超网络结构,并将其转化成等价结构进行定量建模。通过分析模型的应急优化目标和对受灾点的资源救助行为,利用变分不等式理论推导出模型最优求解定理。设计算例进行数值求解和仿真分析,说明了各应急主体(间)的能力限制、各应急主体(间)的灾害风险度等关键参数对资源调配决策优化有重要影响。     

灾后四川羌族地区民俗文化旅游可持续开发模式研究

四川羌民族地区依托丰富的原生态民俗文化和自然景观发展了独特的羌民俗文化旅游,促进了民俗文化的交流,同时带来旅游区民俗文化和经济的发展。但突如其来的5·12汶川大地震不仅给羌族文化带来沉重打击,依靠羌文化发展起来的民俗文化旅游也受到严重的影响。为了让羌族的文化基因延续下去,羌文化旅游的开发不仅不该停止,更要通过可持续的开发模式来保护和传承原生态的羌文化。