国外灾害经济研究的主要进展与启示

国外的灾害经济研究是20世纪50年代以后才正式展开的,其兴起在一定程度上是受到了技术进步、战争和战争威胁等因素的推动。经过早期逐步引入经济学分析方法用于灾害问题的研究,关于灾害损失评估框架、灾害经济后果与影响、自然灾害与经济发展等方面,国外（主要是西方）已经积累了大量的研究成果。从研究范围来看,已经从单一国家和单一的灾害事件发展到了全球范围的各类灾害事件,而研究思路和方法则在不断朝着经验分析和模型化的方向发展。通过对国外灾害经济研究成果的梳理,可以给我国的灾害经济研究带来有益的启示。     

重庆地区天气灾害模型研究

天气灾害对国民经济 ,特别是对农业生产影响很大。利用灰色系统理论和方法对原重庆地区天气灾害规律进行研究 ,有利于我们提前做好准备 ,减少灾害损失     

Why the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster is a Man‐made Calamity

The Fukushima nuclear disaster caused by the earthquake on 11 March 2011 is a man‐made calamity because technological failures were derived from the failure of multiple social safeguards. The insufficient social safeguards can be explained by highlighting the “nuclear complex.” Institutional frameworks assured the enormous economic power of electric power companies and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Using this power, the electric power companies effectively manipulated information, maintained strong political power and constructed the nuclear complex, which has imposed an overwhelming influence on the central sphere of control at a national level and has put economic profit before safety. Regulations for safety have not been insufficient because the organization charged with nuclear safety belongs to the nuclear complex. Consequently, Regulatory Guides concerning reactors defined by the government have not accounted for catastrophic accidents. Philosopher Mori Arimasa's concept of "binary combination" provides us with an insight into a profound sociological reason for the Fukushima nuclear disaster because it highlights the immaturity of subjectivity and the root of irresponsibility in Japanese society. Binary combination is defined as a relationship between two persons that is characterized by intimacy and a vertical relation. Binary combination tends to produce a group or organization that is closed to outsiders and often shows indifference as well as insensitivity to outside opinions. In order overcome the defects of energy policy as well as the decision‐making process, and to achieve a sustainable society, it is necessary to promote an energy paradigm shift and reforms for decision‐making through the enrichment of the public sphere.     

How Does the Restoration of Tōhoku Society Begin? Center and Periphery in the Great East Japan Earthquake

What can we learn from the Great East Japan Earthquake? In this article, I examine the effects of the overarching physical and social system that has developed in Japanese society for the last half century. I use the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident as an example. I will also look to the meaning of kuni (the Japanese word for country, state or nation), and emphasize the urgent need to advance sociological comparative analysis of different forms of nation, state and country in times of emergency.     

社会学视阈中的灾害损失评估研究

我国灾害损失评估尚未达到科学化要求,缺乏灾害损失综合评估方法,灾害统计数据调查采集渠道不畅,重复计算或信息失真,各地灾情报告夸大损失,救灾资源浪费,评估偏经济因素而少社会要素,难以及时准确地反映灾情并分析防灾减灾和应急措施的成效与不足。应当深入研究我国灾害损失评估状况,探讨完善灾害损失评估的标准、方法、程序,修正和改进灾害损失评估体系,拓展灾害损失评估的社会境域,形成全面准确的灾害损失评估机制,充分发挥灾害损失评估在应急处置、灾害救援和恢复重建中的信息、咨询、监督和评价功能,优化突发事件应急管理。     

灾变社会工作中的社会资本重构路径分析——以5·12四川地震灾区为例

5·12四川地震给灾区物质方面造成了巨大损失,还使灾区的社会资本受到了冲击并流失。灾后重建是一个系统工程,既包括物质重建,也需要社会资本的重构。灾变社会工作中社会资本重构路径主要有:重构灾民之间的关系,重构灾民与组织间的关系,增强灾后社区内凝聚力。     

基于适灾韧性理念的城市突发公共卫生事件应对策略研究——以新冠肺炎疫情防控为例

当前,全世界正遭受着新型冠状病毒引起的肺炎传染病疫情的侵害。目前提高城市的适灾韧性是规划者们所需要考虑的重要方面,此次疫情就是对我国城市适灾韧性的考验。对新冠肺炎疫情防控过程的韧性观察,可以为城市未来应对突发公共卫生事件提供经验借鉴。适灾韧性理念下城市应对突发公共卫生事件,要做到:灾前建立体系,多样防灾;灾中完善方案,快速抗灾;灾后总结经验教训,修复提升。     

离舍与回归:王闿运解说《春秋》灾异的两难

作为晚清时期的一位《春秋》公羊学者,王闿运在解说《春秋》灾异的过程中,与历代公羊学者言说灾异有较大差异:一方面,他对董、何所创立的灾异说不以为然,欲离舍其“天人相与”的神秘说教;另一方面,他既表现出灾异说的传统思维,又将人事与天象紧密结合在一起,似乎难以忘怀灾异说。这样就形成了王闿运春秋学之灾异说的两难困境。其主要原因在于王闿运尊经意识、今古不分、汉宋兼采的经学特色与对西学模糊认识所致。在晚清经学走向终结的时代,王闿运的“两难”灾异观无疑对此具有消解作用。     

Establishing Design Principles for Wildfire Resilient Urban Planning

This study elaborates on the built and natural environment disciplines’ potential to develop applied understandings of resilience, using the example of land-use planning design guides in wildfire-prone areas. It argues that land-use planning can develop and apply spatial and physical resilience principles to disasters, contributing to developing meaningful ways of achieving resilience by bridging the space between overarching goals and the specificity of individual contexts, focusing on physical resistance. It concludes that there are nine design principles that can improve settlements resilience in wildfire-prone areas to reduce risks, organized under two major categories: acting on resistance and facilitating response.     

震后多目标动态应急医疗设施选址-伤员转运问题研究

地震等灾害的突发性和破坏性常导致部分伤员无法得到快速有效的救治，同时会给伤员造成一定的负面心理，影响救援效率。本文综合考虑救护车辆（救护车、直升机）和医疗设施容量的动态变化、各类伤员生存概率随时间动态变化以及伤员心理状况变化，构建了最大化伤员生存数量和最小化心理成本的震后伤员二级后送模式的医疗设施选址-伤员转运双目标动态规划模型。运用epsilon约束法有效处理双目标模型，以玉树地震后伤员后送问题为例，采用CPLEX对模型进行求解，通过分析医疗资源数量对伤员转运数量的影响，表明在伤员后送过程中，增加临时医院数量或容量与救护车数量比增加后方医院数量或容量与直升机数量更有效；考虑伤员的心理成本，为了提高伤员存活率，在灾害前期，可以通过增加救护车数量，转运更多的重伤员，而中后期提高临时医院容量，尽量优先转运轻伤员。