Improving Flood Risk Communication by Focusing on Prevention‐Focused Motivation

This article proposes an approach to flood risk communication that gives particular emphasis to the distinction between prevention and promotion motivation. According to E. Tory Higgins, the promotion system and the prevention system are assumed to coexist in every person, but one or the other may be temporarily or chronically more accessible. These insights have far‐reaching implications for our understanding of people's reasoning about risks. Flood risk communication framed in terms of prevention involves the notions of chance and harm, woven into a story about particular events that necessitate decisions to be more careful about safety issues and protect one's family and oneself from danger. The article describes how the insights worked out in practice, using a flood risk communication experiment among a sample from the general population in a highly populated river delta of the Netherlands. It had a posttest‐only control group design (n = 2,302). The results showed that risk communication had a large effect on the participants’ responses and that this effect was higher among chronic prevention‐focused people than among others. Any information that increased the fit between a prevention‐framed message and a person's chronic prevention motivation produced stronger situationally induced, prevention‐focused responses. This may significantly improve communication about risks. In contrast, the notion of water city projects, featuring waterside living, had more appeal to promotion‐focused people.     

宋教仁的帝国主义论与民族解放思想

宋教仁对帝国主义的侵略特点和战争本质都有深刻的新认识.他在20世纪初敏锐地预见到国际战略格局的新变化,认为日、美、英等国在亚太地区的激烈争夺,必然导致日美之间的战争;同时剖析了欧洲德、奥、意"三国同盟"与英、法、俄"三国协约"的形成与矛盾的尖锐化.认为这必将导致世界大战的爆发.他提出,中国应该利用帝国主义之间的矛盾,配合世界性民族独立解放运动的新潮流,争取中华民族的独立与解放.     

Postmining Management in France: Situation and Perspectives

Even if most French mines are definitively closed, potential risks remain above the abandoned sites. In addition to surface instability, some mining sites may be affected by dangerous gas emissions, flooding events, or environmental impacts. Those kinds of disorders strongly influence the land-use management of the concerned areas. The present article presents the French mining historical context and identifies the major kinds of residual risks and harmful effects that may affect abandoned mine sites. The prevention policy applied on the national territory is then discussed and prospects for further developments are proposed.     

Workplace Crisis Intervention

Summary

The workplace, where adults spend about one-third of their lives, would seem an ideal place from which to promote health and respond to crisis. This paper employs a systematic statistical review of experimental and quasi-experimental research on workplace-based crisis intervention programs. Nine studies were identified that met inclusion criteria for further analysis. Results suggest that the workplace can be a useful platform from which to provide crisis intervention programs.     

Economics of Disaster Risk,Social Vulnerability,and Mental Health Resilience

We investigate the relationship between exposure to Hurricanes Katrina and/or Rita and mental health resilience by vulnerability status, with particular focus on the mental health outcomes of single mothers versus the general public. We advance a measurable notion of mental health resilience to disaster events. We also calculate the economic costs of poor mental health days added by natural disaster exposure. Negative binomial analyses show that hurricane exposure increases the expected count of poor mental health days for all persons by 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.44–31.14%), and by 71.88% (95% CI, 39.48–211.82%) for single females with children. Monthly time‐series show that single mothers have lower event resilience, experiencing higher added mental stress. Results also show that the count of poor mental health days is sensitive to hurricane intensity, increasing by a factor of 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.10) for every billion (U.S.$) dollars of damage added for all exposed persons, and by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03–1.14) for single mothers. We estimate that single mothers, as a group, suffered over $130 million in productivity loss from added postdisaster stress and disability. Results illustrate the measurability of mental health resilience as a two‐dimensional concept of resistance capacity and recovery time. Overall, we show that natural disasters regressively tax disadvantaged population strata.     

从电影《2012》到"新灾变时代"——从气候变迁史解读"世界末日"问题

电影《2012》演绎的板块快速移动，引起世界范围内的毁灭性灾难其实是不科学的。古今所谓“世界末日”观念，均无科学依据。全新世以来，古气候发展有四个主要阶段，并具有2500-3000年的周期，先后分别是前北方期一北方期、大西洋期（黄金时代）、亚北方期（灾变时代）、亚大西洋期（新黄金时代）。目前，亚大西洋期接近结束，一个新灾变时代即将到来，并将对世界气候环境造成不可估量的重大影响。我国东部季风环流势必遭受干扰，西部干燥化将加强。     

高校腐败的变化趋势及其预防机制研究

随着高等教育的快速发展,国家对高校的投入力度不断增加,高校经费得到了急剧增长。与此同时,高校也成为腐败多发易发的重点领域,一些腐败案例引起了社会各界的广泛关注。文章基于对高校腐败现状的研究,分析高校腐败的特点和变化趋势,进而提出高校腐败预防机制,为高校反腐倡廉建设的创新和发展提供理论参考。     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

清末奉天万国鼠疫研究会考论

奉天万国鼠疫研究会是在清政府应对1910年末到1911年初东北三省鼠疫过程中,认识到亟须向国外学习先进的防控经验的前提下召开的。会议由中国倡议并主办,共有来自12个国家的34位正式代表参加。从1911年4月3日（三月初五日）至4月28日（三月三十日）在奉天（今沈阳）召开,其间共举行大会24次,形成决议45项,确定了许多国际通行的防疫准则,为此后的国际防疫合作奠定了基础;同时,这次国际会议也大大推动了中国近代公共防疫事业的发展。奉天万国鼠疫研究会是由清政府主办的中国近代史上第一次国际学术会议。