基于ARIMA模型的2009年山东省手足口病疫情分析及预测

对山东省2009年第13周至第35周(3月30日至8月30日)手足口病发病数作时间序列分析,应用 SPSS软件建立 ARIMA模型,并对预测效果进行评价.结果表明ARIMA (0,2,1)模型很好地拟合了既往时间段上的手足口病发病率序列,发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势.     

强化干预代谢综合征改变心脑血管事件发生风险的纵向随访研究：社区人群心脑血管事件前瞻性研究系列之四

目的了解药物综合干预代谢综合征（MS）是否可以改变发生心脑血管事件的风险。方法采用随机整群抽样南宁市两个社区的1215人符合纳入标准为本次综合干预治疗的研究对象,随机分为强化干预组和对照组。强化干预组人群按照是否患有MS及其相关疾病、疾病前状态（包括高血压、血压前期、肥胖、超重、糖尿病、糖耐量减退、血脂异常）等分别采取不同的强化治疗方案进行干预;对照组人员维持志愿就诊和志愿服药的正常医疗状态,每年随访1次,按WHO—MONICA方案心血管病事件（CVD）的诊断标准登记本年度发生的CVD和死亡事件。结果前瞻性随访研究43．5个月后：①经比较对照组中MS亚组与非MS亚组,MS患者发生心脑血管事件比非MS显著增高（P=-0．02）;②经比较干预组中MS亚组与非MS亚组,干预后MS心脑血管事件下降明显,MS患者发生心脑血管事件与非MS相比无差异（P〉0．05）;③经比较干预和对照两组MS亚组之间心脑血管事件的发生率,干预组为2．7％,对照组为10．1％,差异显著（P=0．03,OR值=4．01,95％CL：1．07—15．10）;两组非MS亚组之间心脑血管事件的发生率分别为2.3％和4．2％,无显著性差异（P=0．12）。结论药物综合干预代谢综合征（MS）可以改变发生心脑血管事件的风险,与对照相比干预后风险降低了约4倍。     

Entry into Consensual Unions and Marriages Among Finnish Women Born Between 1938 and 1967

This study, based on a survey undertaken in 1989, clearly illustrates the dramatic changes in family formation behaviour that have occurred in Finland. Whereas only about one-tenth of the first unions of women born between 1938 and 1942 began as consensual unions, after the cohort of 1962 only one-tenth were formal marriages. These changes lagged some ten years behind the corresponding ones in Sweden, but were about five years ahead of Norway. In Finland, up to the present, most consensual unions have constituted a temporary state which precedes proper family life. Most couples married in connection with the birth of the first child. Consensual union as a permanent lifestyle is generally connected with a low level of education of women.     

HIV testing,perceptions of AIDS risk,and condom use motivation among US women

As STD infections including HIV increase in the United States, it has become increasingly important to policy makers to ascertain the extent to which knowledge and perceptions of AIDS risk affect an individual's probability of altering their sexual or contraceptive behavior to avoid infection. This paper examines the extent to which women's perceptions of their own and their partners' risk of HIV infection affects the probability of using a condom for protection against sexually transmitted diseases. This paper also examines the extent to which HIV testing may affect motivation for condom use. Crosstabulations reveal that prophylactic condom use is more prevalent among women who have been tested for HIV and increase as perceptions of their chance (and their partner's chance) of being positive increases. The multivariate results from this study indicate that having an HIV test significantly predicts the likelihood of using a condom for STD prevention for US women. Furthermore, women who perceive themselves to be at least somewhat likely to be HIV positive have a higher probability of using a condom to prevent sexually transmitted disease, and women who perceive their partners to be HIV positive are twice as likely as other women to use a condom for STD prevention. However, women who consider themselves likely to be HIV positive are no more likely to use a condom than those who consider themselves not at risk.     

College and University Health Care Professionals: An Expanding Team

Abstract

Factors contributing to students' compliance with mass vaccination programs during meningococcal outbreaks have not been well described. A 1997 mass vaccination campaign at Michigan State University provided an opportunity to study such factors. Of 34 024 students in the target population, 17 538 (51.5%) were vaccinated in 5 days. Vaccination rates were higher for women (47.9%) than for men (43.1 %) and higher for on-campus residents (65.3%) than for off-campus residents (35.6%). For each year of students' age beyond 19, the adjusted odds of vaccination were reduced by 0.82. Adjusted odds ratios for vaccination, with White students as the reference group at 1.0, were 1.33 for Asian American students, 0.97 (not significant) for Hispanic students, 0.82 for African American students, and 0.80 for Native American students. Students from the Colleges of Business, Engineering, Communication, and Natural Science had the highest vaccination rates; those from the College of Arts and Letters had the lowest rates.     

Waterborne Disease‐Related Risk Perceptions in the Sonora River Basin,Mexico

Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human‐waste‐related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater‐management‐related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally‐related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human‐wastewater‐related risk communication within the region.     

性病隐喻与两性身体叙事——中国现代文学中的“性病”意象探析

性病是中国现代文学中最典型的疾病意象之一，对性病的关注涉及对妓女生活的想象，而性别文化身份的差异在对妓女的叙事上体现为两种不同的身体叙事方式。男性主体的中心意识使文学创作更多地表现为人民伦理的宏大叙事，体现着“民族一国家”的“大意义”；女性的历史边缘处境使女性书写更多地呈现为自由伦理的私人叙事，作为一种“小意义”而存在着。对于文学作品中出现的性病，宏大叙事侧重于把女性身体编织进政治、道德、历史的意义圈，强调女性身体的公共性；私人叙事强调性病之于女性的私人经验，呈现女性身体的私人性。     

论《沉沦》的“病态叙事”

试图通过对《沉沦》中郁达夫有意识无意识的“病态叙事”，来发掘小说的深刻内蕴；指出在郁达夫的作品中，主人公大都是“有病”的人，作者采取了“病态叙事”这种方式来展现和表达自己的内心痛苦，从而揭示五四一代先进知识分子普遍的痛苦和绝望。     

灭虫丁和敌百虫同用治疗家兔螨病试验

将患螨病的家兔24只随机分成3组,每组8只,Ⅰ组以灭虫丁注射液O.2mg/kg皮下注射1次,Ⅱ组用2％敌百虫溶液外擦,每天2次,连续3d,Ⅲ组则前两种方法都用,考察疗效及增重情况。结果表明:用药后14d,Ⅲ组疗效最好,平均增重140g,差异极显著。     

妨害传染病防治罪的立法缺陷及其补救

对妨害传染病防治罪存在的立法问题作出评述,提出该罪的可罚范围有待拓宽、行为方式有待明确、与刑法其他罪名需要进一步衔接及统一、刑罚设置上有待进一步完善。