乌鲁木齐大气污染对呼吸系统疾病的影响

国内外大量流行病学研究证明大气污染影响人类健康,并与许多呼吸系统疾病间接或直接相关。针对乌鲁木齐冬季大气污染严重的现状,结合某医院呼吸系统疾病发病的门诊量和住院情况,分析了乌鲁木齐冬季呼吸系统疾病发病人数与大气污染的关系。     

论新时期女性文学对疾病主题的表现

文学与疾病有着源远流长的关系。如果从性别差异出发,我们会发现女性作家作品中的疾病主题与男作家有着本质的区别,它与患者的角色、自我意识发生关系。在女作家笔下,女性的疾病成了受害的隐喻,女性的疾病与女性的角色冲突、与女性性别紧密联系了起来。新时期女性文学对疾病主题的表现则主要集中在女性的生理疾病方面,病妇形象更多地患有生理意义上的疾病,遭受着身体病痛的折磨。在这些作品中,疾病变成了一个深刻地影响着我们思考生存方式的隐喻。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Finfish: A Model of Raw Horse Mackerel Consumption in Japan

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose‐response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose‐response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment from Farm to Fork and Beyond: A Global Bayesian Approach Concerning Food-Borne Diseases

A novel approach to the quantitative assessment of food-borne risks is proposed. The basic idea is to use Bayesian techniques in two distinct steps: first by constructing a stochastic core model via a Bayesian network based on expert knowledge, and second, using the data available to improve this knowledge. Unlike the Monte Carlo simulation approach as commonly used in quantitative assessment of food-borne risks where data sets are used independently in each module, our consistent procedure incorporates information conveyed by data throughout the chain. It allows back-calculation in the food chain model, together with the use of data obtained downstream in the food chain. Moreover, the expert knowledge is introduced more simply and consistently than with classical statistical methods. Other advantages of this approach include the clear framework of an iterative learning process, considerable flexibility enabling the use of heterogeneous data, and a justified method to explore the effects of variability and uncertainty. As an illustration, we present an estimation of the probability of contracting a campylobacteriosis as a result of broiler contamination, from the standpoint of quantitative risk assessment. Although the model thus constructed is oversimplified, it clarifies the principles and properties of the method proposed, which demonstrates its ability to deal with quite complex situations and provides a useful basis for further discussions with different experts in the food chain.     

改革开放后我国传染病防治政策的变迁逻辑研究——基于多源流理论的分析

我国在传染病防治领域取得诸多成就,应对传染病大规模暴发的能力显著提升。然而,新的传染病不断涌现、地区间医疗资源分配不均、病媒种类增多等问题仍存在,暴露出我国传染病防治政策还有不足。文章运用多源流理论进行分析,发现宏观场域的变化、传染病病种类型增多和传染病防治措施滞后等问题构成问题源流,专家学者建言献策、医疗体系积极参与传染病防治工作和社会力量呼吁政策更新构成政策源流,党的执政理念变化与国民情绪表达的双重效应构成政治源流,促使传染病防控领域相关政策的变化。