中国农产品期货市场有限套利的证据

通过构建期现差价、期期差价与持有成本变量之间的回归模型和VAR模型,利用2004年1月—2014年1月中国玉米、强麦、棉花、黄大豆二号期货与现货价格日序列资料进行的回归分析和Granger因果检验发现：50%以上的单个合约期现价差率与市场利率、合约到期时间的变动关系与套利决定论不符;14%~60%的单个合约期现价差率与合约到期时间不存在显著关联或反相关;玉米、棉花期货的连续合约期现价差率、期期价差率与市场利率变动反相关;市场利率既不是这四种农产品期货连续合约期现价差率变动的Granger原因,也不是期期价差率变动的Granger原因。这些证据表明中国农产品期货市场套利不充分,应更重视预期在农产品期货价格形成中的作用。     

双重定价悖论与新世纪国际原油价格走势

新世纪以来,国际油价在基本上处于长时间高涨态势后又在近期保持了趋势性低迷。现有国际油价走势的研究难以对新世纪(尤其是近几年)国际油价走势给出充分解释。世界石油市场存在的双重定价悖论或许能够对新世纪国际油价走势提供另外一种有效分析视角。英国Brent原油价格日益成为世界石油市场最重要的基准油价格,但其所处区域市场的原油产量却逐年下降,直接导致Brent原油价格上扬,Brent原油价格通过基准油价格制度带动整个国际油价上涨,并在扩大效应的支撑下放大了国际油价上涨幅度。国际油价上涨和高位运行需要建立在旺盛的石油需求基础上,一旦世界石油需求增长出现不振甚至萎缩,国际油价就会大幅度下降,出现低迷趋势。     

社会化投资平台荐股能战胜市场吗——基于个人投资者角度

大数据时代是一个信息爆炸的时代,如何充分利用这些零散的信息进行有效荐股对投资者投资具有重要意义。本文以国内首个网页版的社会化投资平台股360为例,选取了自2012年初平台推荐股票以来的652个样本股票,通过计算市场持有超额收益率检验了股360荐股在中短线投资中战胜市场的能力。统计结果表明,股360能获得高于大盘的超额收益率,也间接地表明社会化投资平台荐股可以为个人投资者投资提供一定的决策参考。     

中国铀矿产品定价机制改革研究

在文献研究和实地调研的基础上,发现我国铀矿产品定价机制存在市场主体身份重叠,多重价格并行;定价依据模糊,价格不透明;市场结构不合理,供给价格偏高等方面的问题。文章认为定价机制扭曲为核能产业发展带来了巨大风险,同时铀矿产品价格机制改革不能简单地理解为采用国际市场价格。改革应该在高效利用和有限竞争原则下,建设民用市场体系,打造价格形成的市场机制;建立“互联网+”平台,打造价格形成的信息机制;改革核能产业链的结构,建立价格形成的竞争机制。     

北京开征交通拥挤费的政策探析——一项侧重有效性及困难性的研究

无论是北京"宜居城市"目标的实现,还是即将来临的2008年奥运会,都促使我们思考交通拥挤的有效缓解措施。但是,交通拥挤费政策在新加坡、伦敦等国外城市的成功实践,并不能表明北京就能简单地以与国际接轨为由照搬推行。针对北京开征交通拥挤费的有效性和困难性分析说明,目前北京不宜开征交通拥挤费,它必须要有配套措施,单靠该政策并不能稳定、有效地缓解交通拥挤。作为权宜之计,还应当研究其替代政策以更好地解决交通拥挤问题。     

有限关注、噪声交易与均衡资产价格

在单资产的两期定价模型中,刻画了关注和疏忽两类投资者,在市场出清的均衡状态下发现提高信息关注度可以降低资产的风险溢价． 将关注交易者进一步划分为信息关注者与噪声关注者后,关注度与风险溢价的关系依赖于噪声交易者在关注交易者中所占的比例: 当噪声关注者比例较高时,关注度的提高会增加风险溢价,当噪声关注者的比例较低时,则相反． 称这一结论为“关注者分类假说”． 引入理性预期的疏忽交易者后,其核心结论仍然成立．     

An empirical study on the threshold cointegration of Chinese A and H cross-listed shares

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the prices of Chinese A and H market cross-listed shares using the Enders–Siklos threshold cointegration approach. Our data are the daily closing prices of the Hang Seng China AH (A) index and the Hang Seng China AH (H) index from 4 January 2006 to 1 November 2013. We find a threshold cointegration between these two indices, instead of the linear cointegration well established in the literature. The short-term adjustment to the equilibrium shows an asymmetric effect according to the price deviation from the equilibrium. Moreover, using a Granger causality test, we find a bi-directional causality between these two markets, indicating a close relationship between them. A pairs trading rule, based on the estimated threshold cointegration model, demonstrates the usefulness of our results as it generates a significantly higher return than a naive buy-and-hold trading rule.     

A perspective on multinational enterprise’s national identity dilemma

ABSTRACT

This conceptual paper identifies gaps and contributes to the literature on ‘identity’ dilemmas faced by multinational enterprises operating in a globalised world. Various characteristics and business strategies of multinational enterprises are delineated and analysed through the lens of social identity theory and international business concepts such as market and institutional logic. Our analysis, based on multiple cases, and derived from a variety of industries and countries, associates the identity dilemma to informed business strategy. Our findings suggest that while multinational enterprises face identity dilemmas that they sometimes use to their advantage, it also poses several challenges. Through our conceptualisation, we derive five distinct propositions to shape future research directions.     

Derivative Pricing With Wishart Multivariate Stochastic Volatility

This paper deals with the pricing of derivatives written on several underlying assets or factors satisfying a multivariate model with Wishart stochastic volatility matrix. This multivariate stochastic volatility model leads to a closed-form solution for the conditional Laplace transform, and quasi-explicit solutions for derivative prices written on more than one asset or underlying factor. Two examples are presented: (i) a multiasset extension of the stochastic volatility model introduced by Heston (1993), and (ii) a model for credit risk analysis that extends the model of Merton (1974) to a framework with stochastic firm liability, stochastic volatility, and several firms. A bivariate version of the stochastic volatility model is estimated using stock prices and moment conditions derived from the joint unconditional Laplace transform of the stock returns.     

网上商品定价策略

针对网上商品的定价问题,采用文献归纳的方法,分析了网上消费者的购物心理,基于消费者追求时尚的心理、获得低价的心理、实现便捷的心理、感受快乐的心理等制定相应的定价策略。研究结果对网上商品定价具有指导意义。