伊拉克战争后的中东战略格局

美国发动的伊拉克战争是美国试图建立美国控制下的单极世界的第一场战争．美国在取得战争的胜利后，将在中东建立美国主导下的中东格局，并加紧实施其全球战略．中东政治力量在战后纷纷重组，尤以伊朗的海湾安全战略和以色列的中东超级大国地位确立最为典型。美国主导下的中东虽不会发生大的战争，但中东依旧是动荡之源，未来走势充满变数．     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

Employment and filial relations: Is there a conflict?

Since children, particularly daughters, are among the most important sources of help and support for older Americans, it has been suggested that women's increasing employment will affect filial relations. Empirical evidence on this issue is inconsistent, in part due to the use of nonprobability samples. Few studies have measured effects for men. We attempt to broaden the scope of this question beyond help to the frail elderly by asking whether employment affects filial relations in general. We examine effects of hours employed on telephone contact, visiting, feelings of closeness, filial attitudes, and assistance to biological parents, for an area probability sample of men and women over 40. There are no effects of employment for men or women on contact, closeness, or assistance. For the vast majority of this population sample, contact and assistance involve few hours per week, and thus do not seem to conflict with employment.     

Work/Care Regimes: Institutions,Culture and Behaviour and the Australian Case

Increasingly around the industrialized world, labour markets rely upon the paid work of women, many of whom have dependents. Such changing patterns of paid work by women — and by men — are located within work/care regimes that are more or less hostile to the needs of paid workers who care for others. This article sets out a model of work/care regimes and locates the Australian case within international and historical contexts. In Australia, the unchanging normative male worker archetype dominates institutions of work and care, while the cultures of motherhood and fatherhood remain stoically resistant to renovation. In the meantime, the behaviour of working women runs ahead of these unchanging cultures and institutions, creating a policy interest in ‘reconciling’ work and care, but a failure to provide it. The reasons for this failure are outlined.     

Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall

What do we mean by progress and cumulation in the social and human sciences? Recent thinking in the philosophy and history of science has led to an abandonment of some versions of logical positivism and of verificationism that had a strong deductive and theory testing orientation. What is to replace them is less clear. This paper argues that progress and cumulation can be seen as a process of evaluation and retention within an epistemic community. Scholarly disciplines differ in their social structure and in their epistemic and normative commitments. Since sociology is a fragmented discipline, progress and cumulation differ within its multiple subdisciplines, which to varying extents represent epistemic communities. Brief sketches of progress (advance) and cumulation in several subdisciplines are offered.     

科技兴市:佛山跨世纪的战略选择

作者运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法对佛山市经济发展的实践予以深刻剖视后指出:佛山市经济建设处在从物质投入主导型向科技进步主导塑转变的转折点上,在跨世纪的经济发展与经济竞争中,佛山市必须实行科技兴市的新发展战略,作者对佛山市科技兴市战略的涵义,目标,条件作了深入分析,并进而设计了科技兴市战略的运行机制和政策落点。     

What to do with “I Don't Know:” Elicitation in Ethnographic & Survey Interviews

When a researcher enters an interview, she has already construed it as being a standard type of communicative event. This article considers how a researcher's construal of a communicative event as either an ethnographic or survey interview shapes the production of information. Interview standards entail epistemological assumptions that directly inform the type of information sought and produced. I consider this process through a comparison of the elicitation techniques I employed in survey and ethnographic interviews conducted during research in Mexico. I draw on theory in linguistic anthropology on the nature of meaning in language, examining how dialogicality and interaction are essential to understanding the construal of communicative events.     

唐代狩猎诗论

唐代狩猎诗数量虽不多,但作者涉及面广,无疑是辉煌灿烂的唐诗中一道独特亮丽的风景线。唐代狩猎诗创作的繁荣,与唐代朝野普遍尚猎的风尚及文人入幕、从军边塞活动密切相关。唐人狩猎诗内容丰富,形式多样,特点鲜明,于中还透露出崇猎尚武、积极进取的时代精神。     

论全球化背景下国际私法中的国家主权观--由国家利益本位向国际社会利益趋向的转化

主权原则是国际私法中的一项基本原则。在国际私法中长期以来都存在国家利益优先的倾向,但随着全球化趋势的日益增强,传统国际私法中的主权观已越来越不适应国际民商事交往蓬勃发展的现实。全球化带来的是全球法律文明的趋同化,由此伴随着全球共同利益的产生。国际私法作为处理国际民商事法律冲突的法律部门,必须对这种国际社会利益做出反应,把对人权的尊重和保护作为追求正义价值的基本向度。