中国通胀水平及其不确定性双长记忆统计特征研究——基于ARFIMA-HYGARCH-t模型

基于ARFIMA-HYGARCH-t模型对1985年1月至2015年12月间中国月度通货膨胀的均值过程和波动过程进行统计检验,发现通货膨胀水平及其不确定性表现出"双长记忆"行为。在此行为下,利用VAR模型、ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M-t模型及ARFIMA-GJR-t模型检验通货膨胀水平与其不确定性之间的影响关系、影响方向与影响程度,结论支持Friedman-Ball假说;通货膨胀水平正向冲击引发的不确定性程度强于负向冲击引发的不确定性程度。经济政策操作时既要考虑维持通货膨胀的稳定性,也要考虑政策期限结构的长期性。     

一种改进的动态偏离-份额分析法

为突破传统动态偏离-份额法存在的"由于同度量因素采用不同时期所造成的‘权偏误’问题,与无法将单因素纯影响从交互作用中单独剥离"两种局限性,借鉴对数平均迪氏指数法构建改进的动态偏离-份额分析法。结果表明:改进方法不仅弥补传统方法的两种缺陷,保证了分解结果的唯一性与精确性,而且具有很强的可操作性与实用性,是一种有效的以偏离-份额法为基础的增长因素分解分析方法。     

Stand By Your Man: Wives' Emotion Work During Men's Unemployment

Recent research on unemployment has not sufficiently acknowledged how unemployment reverberates within families, particularly emotionally. This article uses data from more than 50 in‐depth interviews to illuminate the emotional demands that men's unemployment makes beyond the unemployed individual. It shows that wives of unemployed men do two types of emotion work—self‐focused and other‐focused—and both are aimed toward facilitating husbands' success in the emotionally arduous white‐collar job‐search process. This article extends research on emotion work by suggesting that participants perceive wives' emotion work as a resource with potential economic benefits in the form of unemployed men's reemployment. The findings furthermore suggest that as a resource, wives' emotion work is shaped by the demands of the labor market that their husbands encounter.     

The Influence of Living in Two Places on Conjugal Relations: “Instrumental” Characteristic of Norm of Love in China

This research focuses on dual residences (living in two places) on Chinese married couples, a phenomenon with a unique Chinese social background, based on the analysis of 15 cases sampled in the form of interviews, exploring the influence of having dual residences on husband-wife relations and then further exploring its influence of the norm of love and how it works in China. There are three main conclusions. First, compulsory dual residence is closely connected to the rigorous systems of household registration and job allocation during the planned economy period. Voluntary dual residence is related to utilitarian values, including the pursuit of social status and income, against the background of the market economy. Second, at a time when to be working was the first and foremost goal for both men and women, compulsory dual residence was influenced by mainstream social norms that gave priority to work over relationships. Such recognition weakens the influence of dual residences on husband-wife relations. The influence of voluntarily having dual residences on husband-wife relations is mainly connected with how this situation comes to an end. Third, in China, the norm of love in coexistence with multiple values has not been shown to have a decisive influence no matter how the spouses were selected selection or how husband-wife relations are maintained.     

Joint influence of measurement error and non response on estimation of population mean

In this paper, we propose a method to jointly incorporate measurement error and non response in the estimators of population mean using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. We have not only studied some available estimators but also suggested three new estimators in the presence of two types of non sampling errors occurring jointly: the measurement error and the non response. The expressions for the bias and mean square errors of proposed estimator have been derived. A comparative study is made among the proposed estimators, the Hansen and Hurwitz (1946 Hansen, M.H., Hurwitz, W.N. (1946). The problem of non-response in sample surveys. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 41:517–529.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator, the Cochran's (1977 Cochran, W.G. (1977). Sampling Techniques, 3rd Edn. New York: John Wiley &; Sons, Inc. [Google Scholar]) estimator, and the Singh and Kumar (2008 Singh, H.P., Karpe, N. (2008). Estimation of population variance using auxiliary information in the presence of measurement errors. Stat. Trans. New Ser. 9(3):443–470. [Google Scholar]) estimator.     

Breastfeeding during pregnancy: A systematic review

Background

The consequences of breastfeeding during pregnancy (BDP) have not been clearly established. Available studies have addressed isolated aspects of this issue using different methodologies, often resulting in contradictory results. To our knowledge, no systematic review has assessed and compared these studies, making it difficult to obtain a clear picture of the consequences of BDP.

城乡社会“断裂”与“人口逆淘汰”再思

"人口逆淘汰"问题在人口学研究中已有明确的结论,但从社会学的角度出发,仍有进一步思考的余地。在梳理人口学研究成果的基础之上,从城乡社会"断裂"的社会学角度,对"人口逆淘汰"问题进行再分析、再思考。城乡人口素质差异等"社会统计事实"背后,是城乡社会"断裂"的现实。制度因素如户籍制度和教育健康资源占有与配置等结构因素深刻影响了我国人口素质的提高。     

Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: a modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia

Excess weight is fast becoming a serious health concern in the developed and developing world. The concern of the public health sector has lead to the development of public health campaigns, focusing on two-fold goals: to inform the public as to the health risks inherent in being overweight, and the benefits of a change in nutritional behaviour. Recent studies indicate that the effects of the average public health campaign on the target community is around 5%. In this study we aim to quantify the effect of different public health campaigns on lifestyle behaviour in the target populations in order to bring about weightloss in a significant number of people over the next few years.This study is based on recent works that consider excess weight as a consequence of the transmission of unhealthy lifestyles from one individual to another. Following this point of view, first a mathematical model is presented. Then, policies based on public health campaigns addressed to stop people gaining weight (prevention; this type of policy acts on individuals in order to maintain their weight and to stop an increase in weight) and, policies addressed to overweight individuals to reduce their weight (treatment; these campaigns act on overweight and/or obese individuals in order to reduce their weight) are simulated in order to evaluate their effectiveness. The study concludes that combination of preventive plus treatment campaigns are more effective than considering them separately.     

Low birth weight in Aboriginal babies--a need for rethinking Aboriginal women's pregnancies and birthing

Low birth weight in Aboriginal babies has become a persistent quandary as their average birth weight continues to be lower than that of non-Aboriginal babies. Arguments, reviews and research abound to explain this difference which is deemed unacceptable and needing resolution. A précis review of current theories and findings around low birth weight in Aboriginal babies is presented as a background for much needed alternative considerations of this issue. The low birth weight dilemma requires urgent rethinking of Aboriginal women's experiences and feelings of their pregnancies and possible effects on their unborn babies. There is a critical need for empowerment of Aboriginal women that goes beyond rhetoric and dominant ideologies about what is best for them and their babies, and genuinely enables them to assume control and self-determinism in ways that might make a significant difference, including importantly to their babies’ birth weights.     

基于熵权可拓理论建筑施工项目安全风险评价

针对当前建筑施工项目中安全风险管理现状,综合考虑人员、材料、机械设备、技术、环境、管理等六大影响因素,构建安全风险评价指标体系,通过采用熵权理论计算指标权重,引入物元可拓理论综合评价模型,得到建筑施工项目安全风险等级。最后通过实例验证了模型的可靠性和科学性,为建筑施工项目安全风险评价提供借鉴。