A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

传统农业乡镇城镇化的实践逻辑--以山东省平阴县孝直镇为例

随着城镇化进程不断加快,城镇功能和城市文明向农村地区的扩散已成为一种必然。对于传统农业地区,城镇化的关键在于立足自身资源禀赋,对城镇化的路径和推进机制做出切合实际的选择。在这方面,山东省平阴县孝直镇借助新型农村社区建设和农业现代化推进新型城镇化的模式为研究分析此类问题提供了一个可资借鉴的案例。     

基于社会转型视角的区域乡村文化体系重构策略研究

借鉴管理学有关组织文化的层次结构,构建了包括生态文化﹑物态文化﹑制度文化﹑行为文化﹑精神文化五个方面在内的乡村文化体系构架。在此基础上,深入分析了社会转型对传统乡村文化的冲击,最终针对上述问题,提出了社会转型背景下重构传统乡村文化体系的策略,从而为引导乡村文化的合理演变提供了有益的参考与借鉴。     

Europe’s Role in China’s Transition to Superpower Status

What can Western powers do today to ease an eventual global power shift resulting from the rise of superpowers such as China? This paper suggests that part of the answer lies in the same power-binding institutions that allowed the US to rise post WWII without threatening its allies. Continuity in the rules of the global system during a great power transition would promote stability by reducing uncertainty, as well as the extent to which material power can be used coercively. I argue that current superpowers, the EU among them, have an interest in ensuring an equitable distribution of the gains from cooperation. While distributional issues are usually treated in normative terms, they take on very real, material meaning in the context of a great power transition. With this in mind, I look at three aspects of the current global institutional framework that would benefit from reform: international trade and aid, institutional design, and institutional proliferation. In all three cases, a more equal distribution of the gains from institutions today increases the odds that those institutional arrangements will remain in the future.     

The Tunnel at the End of the Light: the Crisis of Transition in Hungary

The economic, political and social transition processes of the last two decades, far from being in harmony, clearly have a detrimental rather than an enriching influence on each other. These processes will never become harmonised just by themselves in a natural fashion. The worst obstacle of a successful transformation is that the chief actors, such as the government, the market and the representatives of the society. The Prince, the Merchant and the Citizen do not show the necessary commitment, competence and determination to create a new, effective type of partnership. This is a challenge which urgently demands answers on all levels of governance, economic and social life. This must be done in the frames of local communities, and on the regional, the European and the global levels. Nearly twenty years after the political turnabout, Hungary now needs a new social contract and must lay down the ethical, political, institutional and intellectual foundations for its twenty-first century democracy.

大都市近郊工业区的转型研究——以广州黄埔区产业布局更新为例

本文借鉴当前城市转型和公共交通引导发展（TOD）的理念,探讨了TOD模式在广州黄埔区转型中的适应性,并在此基础上提出TOD的转型规划策略,为当前我国大都市轨道交通发展背景下的近郊区转型规划提供参考。     

政党权威与当代中国政治发展

政党权威是中国现代政治发展中的重要内容.中国在实现从人治社会到法治社会的转型过程中,需要政党权威的保障与促进作用.本文首先分析了中国政党权威形成的过程及其对中国政治发展的意义,重点探讨了政党权威在当前所面临的挑战以及应对措施,并对中国政治发展中的权威转型提出了自己的设想.     

转型期中国人的信仰问题解读

存在决定意识,社会存在的转型必然会冲击人们原有的信仰和原有的精神支柱,导致社会公众思想上的混乱。当今中国的社会转型已带来了人们社会主义信仰的倾斜、精神失落、物欲膨胀等信仰危机。强化社会公众对中国共产党和社会主义的信仰,寻找失落的精神支柱,已成为目前中国社会实践所面临的一项艰巨而伟大的任务。     

俄罗斯社会转型的历史动态轨迹

千年以来,俄罗斯的社会发展经历了六次重要的社会转型,以国家定位、治理体制和社会结构三者的关系为主线通过梳理和对比分析,认为俄罗斯社会转型的历史轨迹表现在:第一,治理体制与社会结构之间一直存在着无法弥补的张力。因此其社会转型具有“突变”性。第二,社会发展道路上存在着“西化”与“东方化”的矛盾。这反映在两个方面,一是治理体制的“东方化”和现代化实现路径的“西化”矛盾,二是文化的“西化”与社会结构的“东方化”矛盾,因此其社会转型存在着“西化”与“东方化”摇摆不定性特征。第三,在国家定位上存在着帝国意识膨胀与自身实力欠缺的冲突。也就是通过国家资源的垄断而导致的形式上的强大缺乏社会后劲的支持,因此其社会转型存在着间断性与跳跃性共存的特征。     

瞻望21世纪中国的社会转型和道德发展

社会转型包括经济转型、政治转型和文化转型,三者相互作用、依次推进、螺旋上升。改革开放是中国历史上最新一轮的社会转型,它意味着经济上由计划经济转向市场经济,政治上由人治社会转向法治社会,文化上由封闭状态转向开放状态。社会转型期存在诸多道德问题,"道德滑坡"和"道德爬坡"都是道德转型和重建的必然表现。瞻望未来,我国伦理道德的发展趋向将显示出三个特征:发展模式将是民族开放型的,发展速度将是渐进型的,发展途径将是综合创新型的。