A structural model for the markov chain of change in vote intention

Assuming a first-order Markov chain, we propose a structural model for the transition probabilities in vote intention. The proposed model utilizes the ordering among the categories representing vote intentions and carries the flavor of distance models. It also allows a stochastic ordering among distributions reflecting the extent of change. The model is easy to fit and provides a nice interpretation of the data. The model is applied to a panel study of vote intention acquired through six successive interviews before the 1940 Presidential election in Erie County, Ohio.     

Bayes and empirical bayes estimation of survival function under progressive censoring

The purpose of this note is to derive the Bayes and the empirical Bayes estimators of an unknown survival function F under progressively censored data with respect to the squared error loss function and a Dirichlet process prior using the fact that the posterior distribution of F given the data is a mixture of Dirichlet processes, and the assumption that the survival and the censor in0- distributions are continuous.     

社会信任水平对腐败的影响

采用1994—2008年世界95个国家和地区的数据,从社会文化的角度系统考察了社会信任水平对腐败的影响。通过运用多元线性回归模型,我们发现社会信任可以降低腐败水平,对于转型经济体国家和其他国家这种影响不显著,对于OECD国家这种影响是显著的。     

试论韩国政治转型对中国民主政治建设的启示

由成熟的市民社会以及政治精英共同推动的韩国政治转型,其在政治变革前所面临的社会背景与中国有一定的相似之处。韩国的政治民主化进程中的经验说明,应加强市民社会的建设,重塑现代民主政治文化,改善经济政治二元结构,健康、平稳地发展中国民主政治建设。     

经济转型形势下苏州乡村旅游人才培养途径研究

为了适应苏州城市转型升级、城乡一体化建设发展的形势,随着苏州乡村旅游业的不断发展,乡村旅游人才问题也渐渐突显出来,高素质的旅游管理人才和旅游服务人员的缺乏严重制约了苏州乡村旅游的发展,要进一步发展苏州乡村旅游,应该通过做好旅游人才的规划、培养高素质的旅游人才、对现有乡村旅游人员进行培训等途径来提高乡村旅游人才的数量和素质,进一步提升乡村游的管理水平。     

Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition. The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in developed and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This conclusion implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility in late transitional countries and that low levels of schooling can be a cause of stalling fertility.     

Men's influence on the onset and progress of fertility decline in Ghana, 1988–98

While lower fertility is commonly associated with women's reproductive autonomy, we demonstrate that the influence of men's education on reproductive decision-making increased during the first decade of rapid fertility decline in Ghana. Husband's education exerts a stronger influence on wife's fertility intentions than does her own education, and the magnitude of the effect of his education increased significantly from 1988 to 1998. Lower fertility in Ghana seems to be associated more with men's declining fertility desires than with women's increasing reproductive autonomy. Nevertheless, there is some indication that women's education may play a relatively greater role in reproductive decision-making as fertility decline progresses still further.     

Is There a Jump in the Transition?

This article develops a statistical test for the presence of a jump in an otherwise smooth transition process. In this testing, the null model is a threshold regression and the alternative model is a smooth transition model. We propose a quasi-Gaussian likelihood ratio statistic and provide its asymptotic distribution, which is defined as the maximum of a two parameter Gaussian process with a nonzero bias term. Asymptotic critical values can be tabulated and depend on the transition function employed. A simulation method to compute empirical critical values is also developed. Finite-sample performance of the test is assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. The test is applied to investigate the dynamics of racial segregation within cities across the United States.     

Error bounds for the perturbation solution of the transition density under a multi-factor CIR term structure model with weak mean-reversion effect

Abstract

We consider a multi-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model of the term structure of interest rates with weak mean-reversion effect. We use perturbation theory to analyze its conditional characteristic function illustrated by a system of Riccati equations and derive the error bounds for the perturbation approximations. Using the Fourier inversion theorem, we clarify that the perturbation approximation of the conditional characteristic function can be applied to estimate the transition density and likelihood function. We provide their error bounds and accuracy orders. Finally, we discuss the performance of the perturbation approximation in estimating the transition density via simulation.     

“Without women,the war could never have happened”: representations of women’s military contributions in non-state armed groups

Feminist international relations theory argues that male consolidation of power in the aftermath of armed conflict often occurs as men gain the status of heroes in the post-war appraisals. Explorations of republican commemoration in the North of Ireland have uncovered the dominance of the male protagonist with a notable relative absence of militant republican women. Militarized masculine narratives and patriarchal understandings of what is deemed a combatant role, and therefore deemed worthy of commemorating, consistently fail to value or recognize women’s multiple and vital wartime contributions. This article argues that conventional definitions of military contributions and combatant roles are imprecise, highly gendered and ultimately function as a mechanism to denigrate and exclude women’s wartime labor. Based on in-depth interviews with former combatants, the article critically explores the ways in which republican women themselves conceptualize their contributions to armed struggle. Emerging from this is a theoretically rich narrative of women’s multiple and diverse military roles which firmly challenge the limited definition of “a person with a weapon.” It is suggested that by paying careful attention to the lives of combatant women, feminist scholars can use their experiences, narratives and meanings to challenge existing frameworks and discourses, and redefine combatant roles and wartime contributions.