基于进度计划分形特征的缓冲确定方法研究

经典关键链项目缓冲确定方法只考虑了一级链路上活动的信息,导致最终计算出的缓冲量不准确。基于此,本文首先通过对项目计划进行分形调整,利用一维关联维数确定不同级别链路之间的相关性,然后利用Logistic增长模型构建缓冲模型,将缓冲的确定分散到分形网路中相关链路的各个活动上,通过利用逆向选择原理确定均衡缓冲截取位置,并进一步确定项目缓冲。最后将本文方法与C&PM,RSEM,APD三种方法进行仿真实验对比分析,实验结果表明,本文方法能够在保证按时完工率的前提下,有效缩短项目工期,并降低项目总成本。     

“有界时段”与“无界时段”

语言中的时间状语与动词之间的关系既是一个语法问题,也是一个认知问题。合乎语法正确的句子,不一定是合乎交际意义的句子。为此,通过分析"有界时段"(DTP:Defined Time Period)和"无界时段"(NTP:Non-defined Time Period),从认知角度讨论二者,即时间状语与动词之间的合理搭配问题。     

The Association between head Start Enrollment and Children's Mental Health Scores

This study examined the association of the children's entry age and enrollment duration of Head Start on children's mental health, using secondary data analysis. Children were of three groups: one group of children entered Head Start at age 3 and maintained enrollment for 1 year (Group 1), the second group of children entered Head Start at age 4 and stayed for 1 year (Group 2) and the third group of children entered at age 3 and stayed in Head Start for 2 years (Group 3). Research questions are (1) Do child and family characteristics have any association with mental health scores? (2) Do children's mental health scores differ among the three groups? Compared with children who entered at age 4 and stayed for 1 year, children who entered Head Start at age 3 and stayed in Head Start both for 1 year and for 2 years had higher mental health scores. Controlling for other factors, boys and children with special needs had higher mental health scores. Black and dual bilingual children had lower mental health scores.     

“了”与“没（有）”共现句式的再考察

句尾“了”与副词“没（有）”共现句式,通常带有时段状语;而王灿龙认为,时段成分不是“了”与“没（有）”共现的必要条件。经考察得知,“了”与“没（有）”可以共现于不带时段状语的句子,但该类句子要有时量起始标记,或者有“就”、“再”等副词的介入。     

基于订单持续期的投资者订单提交策略研究

运用ACD模型,采用2003年12月深成指43只成份股共计1 825 415条的逐笔委托记录,通过对订单持续期的实证检验分析了中国证券市场投资者的订单提交策略,研究发现:1)价差假说、深度假说、波动性假说、交易强度假说、信息透明度假说和订单积极性假说被证实,说明市场微观特性、市场状况、信息和订单提交者成交愿望等都影响投资者的订单提交策略;2)涨跌假说得到支持,说明股票价格涨跌影响该股票的订单持续期;撤单是机构投资者制定订单提交策略的重要手段.     

一类新的SBO及其在GM(1,1)中的应用研究

利用缓冲算子提高数据序列光滑性是提高灰色GM(1,1)模型预测精度的重要途径之一。在对缓冲算子和已有强化缓冲算子研究的基础上,构造了一类新的强化缓冲算子(strengthening buffer operator,SBO),有效地解决了冲击扰动数据序列在建模预测过程中常常出现的定量预测结果与定性分析结论不符的问题,实例分析结果表明:这类新的强化缓冲算子能显著提高数据预测模型的预测精度。     

不完全信息转递下美元国债期货投资路径与久期对冲方法研究

本文基于2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主法玛的有效市场为基础,解析当面对不完全信息条件下国债的投资策略,并以此逻辑线索线进行分析,在不完全信息条件下可以完成通过寻找美元债券定价差价来增加收益,从而在避免利率波动的同时被动提高债券投资组合的收益率. 本文最后就如何正确对待债券定价提出了合理化建议.     

Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling: Development and Sensitivity Analysis

In this article, we propose an integrated direct and indirect flood risk model for small‐ and large‐scale flood events, allowing for dynamic modeling of total economic losses from a flood event to a full economic recovery. A novel approach is taken that translates direct losses of both capital and labor into production losses using the Cobb‐Douglas production function, aiming at improved consistency in loss accounting. The recovery of the economy is modeled using a hybrid input‐output model and applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using six different flood events (1/10 up to 1/10,000). This procedure allows gaining a better insight regarding the consequences of both high‐ and low‐probability floods. The results show that in terms of expected annual damage, direct losses remain more substantial relative to the indirect losses (approximately 50% larger), but for low‐probability events the indirect losses outweigh the direct losses. Furthermore, we explored parameter uncertainty using a global sensitivity analysis, and varied critical assumptions in the modeling framework related to, among others, flood duration and labor recovery, using a scenario approach. Our findings have two important implications for disaster modelers and practitioners. First, high‐probability events are qualitatively different from low‐probability events in terms of the scale of damages and full recovery period. Second, there are substantial differences in parameter influence between high‐probability and low‐probability flood modeling. These findings suggest that a detailed approach is required when assessing the flood risk for a specific region.     

Impact of acupressure on onset of labour and labour duration: A systematic review

BackgroundThere is worldwide concern with increasing rates of pharmacologically induced labour and operative birth. Many women would like to avoid medical or surgical interventions in childbirth; a desire that may contribute towards the popularity of complementary and alternative medicine/therapies.MethodThis systematic review examines the effects of acupressure on labour onset and duration of labour. We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, AMED, Cochrane Collaboration, and Science Direct from 1999 to 2013 for published randomised controlled trials and controlled trials comparing acupressure with placebo and no treatment. Studies recruited primiparous and/or multiparous women with either spontaneous or induced onset of labour. The outcome measures were labour onset and duration of all stages of labour.FindingsSeven trials with data reporting on 748 women using different acupressure points and methods of administration were included in the review. One study examined the initiation of labour and six studies examined labour duration and/or pain levels. The two most studied acupoints were Sanyinjiao/Spleen 6 and Hegu/Large Intestine 4. Results suggest acupressure may reduce the length of labour particularly in the first stage.ConclusionFurther research is required on whether acupressure can shorten labour duration, augment prolonged labour or initiate onset of labour by stimulating uterine contractions. Clinical trials should report the basis for acupressure treatment described in the STRICTA (minus needling) and CONSORT non-pharmaceutical guidelines.     

中国商业银行资本缓冲的周期性研究——基于16家上市银行的实证分析

基于中国16家上市银行2000—2013年的非平衡面板数据, 使用Driscoll和Kraay(1998)的方法对中国商业银行的资本缓冲与经济周期之间的关系进行再检验, 并且考虑银行之间可能存在空间截面自相关问题, 实证结果显示:经济周期缺口系数显著为正, 商业银行规模系数显著为负, 贷款损失拨备系数为负但不显著。研究结果表明:中国商业银行资本缓冲存在一定的逆周期性;商业银行“太大而不能倒”理论不适用于中国现实情况;贷款损失拨备计提不仅基于利润理论, 也会受到成本费用理论的影响, 这两个理论之间的权衡造成贷款损失拨备系数并不显著为负。