基于Petri网的微博网络信息传播模型

微博网络中的信息传播模型是分析用户行为,找出传播路径,确定领袖人物,发现舆情热点等研究的基础。虽然多种不同角度的信息传播模型已经得到广泛研究,但缺乏对信息动态传播过程的直观描述。本文基于Petri网的结构和特征,针对微博网络信息传播过程,提出了一种简单直观的描述模型,该模型首先对微博网络的信息动态传播过程中的对象进行结构化描述。本文根据微博网络的用户结构关系,并利用Petri网的相关理论,形式化解释和定义信息传播基本对象,从而更加直接描述了微博网络中的转发、评论、回复等多种用户行为。在此基础上,本文利用Petri网能够描述信息流动问题的特征,结合颜色Petri网和时延Petri网,从Petri网系统的角度表示信息动态传播路径,并研究网络的动态性质和传播条件,使得信息传播模型更加真实地模拟信息传播情况。最后本文分析信息传播算例和新浪微博真实数据实验,验证了模型的有效性和可行性,为舆情态势分析以及用户行为的研究提供帮助和支持,同时也为其它社交网络信息传播的用户行为描述提供了新的思路。     

长期执政条件下中国共产党密切联系群众动力研究

社会主义国家普遍实行的是一党长期执政。在我国当前一党执政的新时期、新形势下,中国共产党要坚定党的既定方针,带领中国人民实现中华民族的伟大复兴使命,更加需要同广大的人民群众保持密切的联系。在贯彻落实群众路线时,要切切实实地关注广大百姓的切身利益与实际问题,特别是要建立起一种能够将我党同广大人民群众密切联系起来的长效机制。     

河北省普通高等教育发展的动态评价

在综合评价的方法中,主成分分析能浓缩信息,使指标降维,简化指标的结构,使分析问题简单、直观、有效,许多动态评价问题,都可采用主成分分析来进行评价。针对区域普通高等教育发展的特点,建立综合评价指标体系,利用主成分分析评价了2000年以来河北省普通高等教育发展的情况,分析了影响因子情况,可以为河北省普通高等教育发展政策提供依据。     

公务员责任实现机制探析

行政责任的履行和实现是一个制度化的责任规范过程,是对客观责任进行设置并加以监控的过程,也是取得公务员个人主观责任意识与责任认同并在此基础上作出主动行为选择的过程。行政责任的实现是依赖于一套完整的动力系统实现的,这个动力系统既包括公务员个体主观道德意识、职业价值观所决定的内在动力,也包括对行政责任实施管理和监控的制度所形成的外部动力,只有内部动力与外部动力达成统一和协调,行政责任才能得以有效实现。     

论诗歌的再生--兼论翻译过程中影响跨文化交流的动态因素

文章以功能翻译理论为基础,以中国古典诗歌、日本诗歌、英美现代意象主义诗歌和中国早期白话诗之间的传承影响为例,论证了原语诗歌是通过翻译过程中的一些动态因素,如原诗文本、译者、译语读者等的共同影响,来实现译语诗歌的再生,从而促进文化间的交流发展.     

当代形式语义研究新进展——意义研究从静态向动态的转向

形式语义学把语言处理为一种静态系统,而动态语义学则认为语言理解是一个动态的、变化的过程,更加注重对话语意义的研究.而对动态语义学的基础概念"信息状态"有"个体的理解"和"社会的理解"两种,应正确对待意义研究动态转向给意义的理解带来的深远影响.     

What does Brunei teach us about using Human Development Index rankings as a policy tool?

The Bruneian Government has set an ambitious target to achieve a top 10 ranking on the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) by 2035. To achieve its objective (described in a national strategy document called the Wawasan 2035), Brunei's economy needs to grow by 6% to 7%. Is setting an HDI target a good way to govern Brunei's policy‐making? Is it a good way to govern any country's policy‐making? In this article, we look at the role of HDI‐rank targets in economic and fiscal policy. We show that such a headline target (much like a profit target in a private company) automatically sets targets for growth in various economic sectors and fiscal policy targets. As such, HDI‐rank targeting may provide a useful mechanism for co‐ordinating development policies and for monitoring progress against a wide range of development goals using only one number.     

集体行动视角下的制度逻辑演化机制研究

通过对我国专车服务市场制度变革过程的纵向案例研究,探讨了组织场域中的集体行动如何推动制度逻辑演化的内在机制问题。研究发现：制度逻辑的演化过程主要经历了分离、冲突和共存三种状态,不同的制度逻辑的演化是由行动主体能动性策略和资源利用所构建的集体行动模式差异性驱动的。制度变革机会的涌现促使场域中的行动主体采用协调性的集体行动模式,促成了新制度逻辑的生成,并导致了新、旧两种制度逻辑的分离;在制度变革机会变得模糊的场域中,行动主体非协调的集体行动促使新、旧两种制度逻辑之间的激烈冲突;而在制度变革机会沉没的情境下,行动主体再协调性的集体行动最终促成了新、旧两种制度逻辑的共存。研究结论对我国当前复杂制度环境下新兴业态的发展以及传统业态的协同治理提供了重要的借鉴和启示。     

Progressive Learning

We study a dynamic principal–agent relationship with adverse selection and limited commitment. We show that when the relationship is subject to productivity shocks, the principal may be able to improve her value over time by progressively learning the agent's private information. She may even achieve her first‐best payoff in the long run. The relationship may also exhibit path dependence, with early shocks determining the principal's long‐run value. These findings contrast sharply with the results of the ratchet effect literature, in which the principal persistently obtains low payoffs, giving up substantial informational rents to the agent.     

A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding

Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio‐temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis. To overcome this limit, we move from the analysis of extreme events to the modeling of continuous stream flow records preserving spatio‐temporal correlation structures of the entire process, and making a more efficient use of the information provided by continuous flow records. The approach is based on the dynamic copula framework, which allows for splitting the modeling of spatio‐temporal properties by coupling suitable time series models accounting for temporal dynamics, and multivariate distributions describing spatial dependence. The model is applied to 490 stream flow sequences recorded across 10 of the largest river basins in central and eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Waser, Meuse, Rhone, Seine, Loire, and Garonne). Using available proxy data to quantify local flood exposure and vulnerability, we show that the temporal dependence exerts a key role in reproducing interannual persistence, and thus magnitude and frequency of annual proxy flood losses aggregated at a basin‐wide scale, while copulas allow the preservation of the spatial dependence of losses at weekly and annual time scales.