Coordinating Production and Marketing with Dynamic Transfer Prices

Decentralized decision making is a fact in the modern business world accompanied by extensive research that looks into its consequences for overall firm profits. We study the interactions of decentralized marketing and operations divisions in a corporation and explore their impact on overall firm profits in the case with and without coordination of the two decentralized units. We assume that the marketing department is responsible for the price that influences the demand (sales), and the operations department is responsible for the production rate. We allow for backlogging over time. We model the interdependence involving marketing and operations decisions as a non‐cooperative differential game, with the two divisions as strategically interacting players. We find that, without coordination, strategic interactions of marketing and production result in inefficiencies that can quantitatively be substantial. Next, we introduce a dynamic transfer pricing scheme as a coordination device and evaluate if it establishes efficient (first best and fully coordinated) outcomes. We show that if production and marketing play a game with pre‐commitment strategies, there exists a dynamic transfer price that efficiently (fully) coordinates decentralized decision making and hence results in Pareto‐efficient company profits. If the two decentralized divisions play a game without pre‐commitment, dynamic transfer prices can partially coordinate decentralized decision making but fail to fully eliminate overall inefficiencies arising from strategic interactions among decentralized divisions.     

Clickstream Data and Inventory Management: Model and Empirical Analysis

We consider firms that feature their products on the Internet but take orders offline. Click and order data are disjoint on such non‐transactional websites, and their matching is error‐prone. Yet, their time separation may allow the firm to react and improve its tactical planning. We introduce a dynamic decision support model that augments the classic inventory planning model with additional clickstream state variables. Using a novel data set of matched online clickstream and offline purchasing data, we identify statistically significant clickstream variables and empirically investigate the value of clickstream tracking on non‐transactional websites to improve inventory management. We show that the noisy clickstream data is statistically significant to predict the propensity, amount, and timing of offline orders. A counterfactual analysis shows that using the demand information extracted from the clickstream data can reduce the inventory holding and backordering cost by 3% to 5% in our data set.     

亚健康"青睐"知识分子吗? --中国知识分子健康研究报告之二

本文研究了中年高级知识分子的亚健康状况及其影响因素.本文通过对北京市中关村科技园区海淀园及北京市所属企事业单位共计2500名中年高级知识分子以及505名普通人群的调查资料进行对比分析,发现亚健康状态在中年高级知识分子与普通人群间并没有显著性差异,从而得出中年高级知识分子并不是亚健康的高发人群的结论.同时对造成中年高级知识分子亚健康状态的影响因素进行了分析,结果表明中年高级知识分子的亚健康状态主要是由于生活压力和工作压力过大,缺乏体育锻炼,以及与不能落实体检制度和休假制度有关.     

影响循环经济发展的人口因素分析

由于人口、资源、环境与经济发展的矛盾日益尖锐,循环经济逐渐成为世界各国发展生态经济的实践模式。本文以人口与经济发展的关系为基础,对影响循环经济发展的人口因素进行分析,指出控制人口数量,提高人口素质,优化人口结构,加快人口城市化进程,使人口发展与经济发展相适应,才能促进循环经济发展,最终实现可持续发展的目标。     

影响朝鲜族生育水平的因素分析

中国朝鲜族育龄妇女的生育水平迅速下降,其影响因素是多方面的。因子分析的结果表明,计划生育政策和经济社会发展对朝鲜族生育水平的下降起了一定的作用,但是,朝鲜族独特的传统文化起了决定性的作用。     

福建省人口重心移动路径及其影响因素的人口学分析

通过对1964、1982、1990、2000、2004年人口重心的计算,得到福建省40年的人口重心变化趋势,发现福建省几何中心在尤溪境内,人口重心始终在德化境内;人口分布一直处在不平衡状态,人口密度东部高于西部,南部高于北部;人口重心在东西方向上经历了先向西然后向东的过程,而南北方向上则始终向南移动;40年来人口重心移动路径大约是16公里。我们通过进一步分解人口重心公式,发现福建省1990年人口重心移动的主要影响因素是新增人口;而2000年主要影响因素是流动人口。     

我国老年人健康自评影响因素分析

健康自评是研究对象对自身健康的主观感受,是调查中经常运用的变量。健康自评能够反映健康状态的主观和客观两个方面,因此健康自评可以作为评价老年人健康状况的一个重要指标。采用2002年全国老年调查数据,做不同老年人群体的健康自评的差异性分析并进一步探究影响因素。旨在回答我国老年人健康自评的影响因素,对老年人自身和政策制定者提供参考依据。健康的生活方式对健康自评有积极的影响,身体的健康和健康自评有很强的相关性,老年人的社会人口学特征对健康自评影响十分有限。     

甘肃省出生缺陷1：2配对病例对照研究

为了解甘肃省出生缺陷死亡率及易患因素,为“甘肃省出生缺陷干预工程”项目的实施提供可干预的核心因素。根据甘肃地理特点及经济状况,按随机分层整群抽样方法,抽取了4个县,共42个乡为调查点。结果显示四县市婴儿总死亡率15.8‰(98例),出生缺陷死亡率7.7‰。甘肃省出生缺陷前五位的致病因素依次为:母亲孕早期接触农药史;母亲孕前一月服药史;母亲孕期接触农药史;母亲孕早期感染史;既往流产史。     

Random Choice as Behavioral Optimization

We develop an extension of Luce's random choice model to study violations of the weak axiom of revealed preference. We introduce the notion of a stochastic preference and show that it implies the Luce model. Then, to address well‐known difficulties of the Luce model, we define the attribute rule and establish that the existence of a well‐defined stochastic preference over attributes characterizes it. We prove that the set of attribute rules and random utility maximizers are essentially the same. Finally, we show that both the Luce and attribute rules have a unique consistent extension to dynamic problems.     

“结构困境”到“内生聚合”：特色小城镇复合生态发展的现实逻辑

特色小城镇作为新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略背景下推动城乡融合和农村城镇化的新模式,对于地方实现特色发展和典型引领,实施基层治理创新具有重要靶向功能。围绕"多源化-差异化-依赖互补-生态系统平衡"的要素耦合与"动态化-调试化-创新化-可持续发展"的行动建构整合思路,对地方生态特色化发展进行理论阐释和政策建构。基于江苏省南京市Y镇的生态发展经验,依据"政治合法-政策合理-行动合意"的路径对该镇复合生态治理的机制进行分析,提炼出特色小城镇内生聚合发展的新模式,即特色小城镇生态复合发展应基于复合生态系统治理的特征诉求,协调好经济、社会和生态的平衡关系,推动"三生"空间体系建设,促进民生保障与经济发展,创新治理体系,引导城镇更新和社会有序发展。对于现实存在的结构化困境问题,需运用复合生态治理的要求加以矫正和规范,培育多源要素耦合的基础,将其重新整合最为关键的要素及对应体系,发挥内生聚合效应,重新实现新的生态均衡。