农村集体土地流转演化趋势分析——基于政府主导型流转模式的视角

我国农村集体土地流转配置的格局不仅关系到农民增收、农业增效与农村增福,而且关系到城乡资源优化配置的格局与和谐社会机制的构建。以“三种流转模式”演化的最新地理与经济特征为对象,并以政府主导型的演化机制为主线,重点分析有利变量与不利变量对具有“大跃进”特征的政府主导型演化趋势的影响,最终得出土地流转未来格局是:政府主导型短期扩张难以替代长期衰落的趋势,农户主导型短期停滞并不意味长期衰落,集体主导型依附特征将随政府主导型一损俱损、一荣俱荣。     

动荡环境下的非传统供应链的动态协同运营能力研究

针对动荡环境下的非传统供应链战略的实施问题,采用文献研究方法,以动态能力理论和运营能力理论为指导,结合非传统供应链的运营特点,提出了动态协同运营能力的概念和七种具有不同功能的次级能力概念。在目前动荡的环境下,要实施非传统供应链战略,必须要使得供应链具有如下能力：协同运营感知能力、协同运营创新能力、协同运营整合能力、协同运营重构能力、精益协同运营能力、敏捷协同运营能力和智能化的自主运营管理能力。     

Determining optimal placement for pop-up messages: evaluation of a live trial of dynamic warning messages for electronic gaming machines

Dynamic warning messages are a harm minimization strategy aimed at preventing or reducing gambling-related problems by assisting individuals to make informed choices about their gambling. Laboratory studies have demonstrated the efficacy of dynamic warnings in facilitating responsible gambling. This article presents the results of a trial of the related effectiveness of dynamic warnings appearing either in the middle or on the periphery of electronic gaming machines (EGMs) screens in commercial gambling venues. Regular gamblers (n = 667) were surveyed to assess their recall of warning messages and the perceived impact of message placement on thoughts and behaviours. Messages appearing in the middle of screens were recalled to a greater extent, and respondents reported that these were more impactful and useful than messages on the periphery of screens. As one of the first trials of dynamic warning messages in operating EGM venues, the results provide important verification and validation of previous laboratory research. Results demonstrate that dynamic warning messages appearing in the middle of an EGM screen during play are likely to be a more effective harm minimization intervention than messages on the periphery of EGM screens.     

不同交叉销售结构情境下竞争供应链运营决策研究

不同的销售主体可以销售不同的产品数量。考虑竞争供应链系统由两个制造商和两个零售商组成,下游每个零售商都可以选择垂直上游制造商或者对方的制造商进行产品订购,构建了排他性、单交叉和双交叉三种销售模型,研究不同的竞争强度如何影响零售商订货策略、制造商批发价格和系统绩效。结果表明,当纵向竞争强度不变时,排他性销售下供应链的系统利润随着横向竞争强度的增大而逐渐减小,单交叉销售下供应链的系统利润随着横向竞争强度的增大而逐渐增大。而双交叉销售下供应链的系统利润的变化不仅与横向竞争有关,而且也与纵向竞争相关。     

农户借贷过程中信任机制的构建--一种基于完全信息动态博弈模型的分析

农户“借贷难”产生的根源在于借贷过程中信任的匮乏。从农户借贷过程中信任的形成机理出发,运用完全信息动态博弈理论,提出构建信任机制的四种方法,并指出构建信任机制的三点配套措施。     

成渝地区双城经济圈高等教育一体化发展的动力机制探析

区域高等教育一体化发展离不开动力和动力机制的支撑。其发展动力主要由区域高校革新发展范式的内源驱动力和政府主导力、区域市场一体化带动力、地域文化联结力等外源推动力构成;动力机制主要由激励机制、导向机制、约束机制三部分构成。动力机制具有激发引导、约束控制动力作用方向及力度的功能。成渝地区双城经济圈高等教育一体化发展在当前存在内源驱动力韧劲不足、外源推动力强而不均的动力结构失衡问题,这与动力机制不健全及其功能作用弱化密切相关。常态化推动成渝地区双城经济圈高等教育一体化良性发展,应以增强、聚合、控制内外源发展动力为目的,从完善激励机制、导向机制、约束机制等方面健全动力机制。     

Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models

Estimating structural models is often viewed as computationally difficult, an impression partly due to a focus on the nested fixed‐point (NFXP) approach. We propose a new constrained optimization approach for structural estimation. We show that our approach and the NFXP algorithm solve the same estimation problem, and yield the same estimates. Computationally, our approach can have speed advantages because we do not repeatedly solve the structural equation at each guess of structural parameters. Monte Carlo experiments on the canonical Zurcher bus‐repair model demonstrate that the constrained optimization approach can be significantly faster.     

Endogenous Completeness of Diffusion Driven Equilibrium Markets

We study the existence of dynamic equilibria with endogenously complete markets in continuous‐time, heterogenous agents economies driven by diffusion processes. Our main results show that under appropriate conditions on the transition density of the state variables, market completeness can be deduced from the primitives of the economy. In particular, we prove that a sufficient condition for market completeness is that the volatility of dividends be invertible and provide higher order conditions that apply when this condition fails as is the case in the presence of fixed income securities. In contrast to previous research, our formulation does not require that securities pay terminal dividends, and thus allows for both finite and infinite horizon economies.     

The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry

The typical cost analysis of an environmental regulation consists of an engineering estimate of the compliance costs. In industries where fixed costs are an important determinant of market structure, this static analysis ignores the dynamic effects of the regulation on entry, investment, and market power. I evaluate the welfare costs of the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act on the U.S. Portland cement industry, accounting for these effects through a dynamic model of oligopoly in the tradition of Ericson and Pakes (1995). Using the two‐step estimator of Bajari, Benkard, and Levin (2007), I recover the entire cost structure of the industry, including the distributions of sunk entry costs and capacity adjustment costs. My primary finding is that the Amendments have significantly increased the sunk cost of entry, leading to a loss of between $810M and $3.2B in product market surplus. A static analysis misses the welfare penalty on consumers, and obtains the wrong sign of the welfare effects on incumbent firms.     

基于代表性异质投资者的汇率动态模型

传统汇率模型通常忽略投资者的异质性对市场造成的影响。随着对外汇市场高频动态行为研究的深入,异质投资者模型显示出对金融市场运行规律强大的解释能力。本文依据异质投资者理论,结合外汇市场的实际特点,对由供求关系主导的孤立的外汇市场,推导并建立了基于投资者异质决策的汇率的非线性离散动态模型;并采取试验经济学的研究方法,对该模型进行了仿真。通过对不同条件下的仿真结果的研究可知,在由投资者主导的外汇市场中,基础投资者的投资行为是汇率发生振荡的原因,技术投资者的投资行为使汇率的振幅放大。