Wiki-worthy: collective judgment of candidate notability

The use of socio-technical data to predict elections is a growing research area. We argue that election prediction research suffers from under-specified theoretical models that do not properly distinguish between ‘poll-like’ and ‘prediction market-like’ mechanisms understand findings. More specifically, we argue that, in systems with strong norms and reputational feedback mechanisms, individuals have market-like incentives to bias content creation toward candidates they expect will win. We provide evidence for the merits of this approach using the creation of Wikipedia pages for candidates in the 2010 US and UK national legislative elections. We find that Wikipedia editors are more likely to create Wikipedia pages for challengers who have a better chance of defeating their incumbent opponent and that the timing of these page creations coincides with periods when collective expectations for the candidate's success are relatively high.     

从白朗起义看袁世凯政府的危机应对

白朗起义是民初政府面临的重大政治危机。袁世凯政府在危机应对方面存在如下问题：官员重视不够,大意轻视;官军素质低下,腐败无能;官军之间协作缺失,关系不睦;基层政府力量薄弱,疏于防备;未能有效阻断白朗与革命派之间的互动联系。白朗起义之所以能够转战5省、持续3年有余,对民初袁世凯政府造成沉重打击,上述因素值得关注。     

Mentoring Siblings of Gang Members: A Template for Reaching Families of Gang Members?

Mentoring has become a popular model of intervention to reduce the risk of offending, and has been proposed as an effective tool to tackle the risk of gang membership. This paper reviews the existing literature on mentoring and reports on a qualitative evaluation of a mentoring programme targeted at young people ‘at risk’ of gang membership in an English city. The study highlights important issues around these interventions. Although we found it a useful way to engage otherwise hard‐to‐reach families, important limitations remain: their potential labelling impact and their limited impact in isolation from other more ambitious measures.     

The roller-coaster of experiences: becoming the parent of a deaf child

When early testing indicates a hearing loss, parents find themselves on a roller-coaster of experiences leaving little time or space for reflection. This study is based on interviews with families in the Flemish region of Belgium, one of the earliest in the world to introduce universal neonatal screening for hearing loss. Starting from a phenomenological approach, we explore parents’ accounts of their experiences in order to uncover the meanings of early parenting of a child identified with a label. Soon after birth, these parents encounter a different world in which intertwined discourses construct parenthood with a deaf child. During the process of becoming a parent, representations of deafness as impairment were omnipresent. In contrast to a medical and technological perspective that insists on the need to intervene as fast as possible, it is argued that the private and social implications of rapid intervention require explicit consideration.     

明末至清中叶白山派发展述略

本文首先考察了玛哈图木·阿杂木其人其事与白山派的关系,其次着重探讨白山派的早期沿革史,重点放在阿帕克和卓以前的历史活动上.因这段历史比较模糊,易产生混乱,而阿帕克和卓以后的历史发展较清晰,且学术界作过不少研究,所以就这段历史略加叙述.     

中国早期共产党人对马克思主义民族理论的传播与运用

五四运动前后,李大钊、瞿秋白等早期中国共产党人在当时的社会历史条件下,对马克思主义民族理论的一些重要观点,如民族问题产生的阶级根源及其解决途径、民族自决、民族平等等进行了积极的宣传和传播;运用马克思主义民族理论考察、分析中国的民族和民族问题,对如何解决中国的民族问题进行了早期探索。     

Maternal Education and Investments in Children's Health

Maternal education differences in children's academic skills have been strongly linked to parental investment behaviors. This study extended this line of research to investigate whether these same maternal education patterns in parenting are observed among a set of parenting behaviors that are linked to young children's health. Drawing on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (n = 5,000) and longitudinal models incorporating random effects, the authors found that higher levels of maternal education were associated with more advantageous health investment behaviors at each phase of early development (9 months, 2 years, 4 years, 5 years). Moreover, these disparities were typically largest at the developmental stage when it was potentially most sensitive for children's long‐term health and development. These findings provide further evidence of a developmental gradient associated with mothers' education and new insight into the salience of mothers' education for the short‐ and long‐term health and well‐being of their children.     

晚清广州邮政电报肇兴刍论

晚清广州邮政三足鼎立,传统民信局?各国开设的“客邮”和大清邮政并存,但邮政管理统一是发展的必然趋势?肇兴于中外交涉频繁?战火连绵的晚清广州电报业,极大地提高了通信效率,得到了迅速发展?近代邮政在广州商民生活中得到了较为广泛的使用,伴随电报的开设而兴办的电报学堂是广州早期现代化成果的重要组成部分?梳理广州近代邮政电报的开设情况及其特点,有利于较为全面地了解近代邮政电报的兴办对晚清广州的政治?经济?文化?军事国防以及社会生活的影响?     

辛亥革命与早期共产党人的思想启蒙

辛亥革命是近代中国一次伟大的民族民主革命,它开启了近代中国社会进步的闸门,为中国历史的演进赋予了全新的内容.本文主要从思想影响、人事联系等视角探讨辛亥革命之于中国共产党成立的重要影响,认为辛亥革命事实上是一场20世纪初的新文化运动,它与孕育中国共产党的五四新文化运动有着一脉相承的关联;从具体人事着眼,辛亥历练则是一干早期共产党人踏上革命之途的共同起点,为之后追求救国救民理想的持续努力提供了条件.     

清代前期商人之间的商业信用关系研究

清朝前期由于商品经济和商业贸易的发展,使商人之间形成了比较长的商业信用链条,从商品生产到流入市场,从高级市场到初级市场都不断有商业信用产生.就商人而言,贩运商与坐商之间、坐商与小商贩和摊贩之间都建立了信用关系.商业信用的建立,一方面加速了商品的流通量,盘活了整个商品流通的渠道;另一方面,商业信用的建立,解决了中小商人特别是小商贩资本不足的问题,促进了商业贸易的发展.