经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

构建科学的教坛新秀评选体系

青年教师是高校教学科研的主力军,培养和造就一批高素质的青年教师队伍是推进高校素质教育的一项重要的战略任务,但他们中有许多人存在人文精神缺失及修养不足的问题,对高校的改革与发展产生了消极影响。为切实加强青年教师队伍建设,高校在广大青年教师中开展“教坛新秀”评选活动,以此激励广大青年教师的荣誉感和责任感,促进师德水平和教育教学质量水平的提高,意义深远。从评选理念出发,对教坛新秀的评选指标、评选条件、评选方法做了微观定位,以期为构建科学的教坛新秀评选体系提供参考。     

有机构成调整下劳动就业问题的思考

资本有机构成理论是马克思分析资本积累三大历史趋势的首要内容,深刻认识资本有机构成的内涵,特别是深刻认识有机构成发展趋势的内涵,对于调整社会产业结构、经济结构以及就业结构;对于充分认识经济形势变化形成劳动就业给社会带来的压力,进行事前引导和调整;在理论和实践上都将有着重大影响和深刻的指导意义。     

现代化的扩散与乡村政治文化的变迁——以改革开放以来安徽和县浏塘村为例

文章遵循从基本理论到实证调查再到一般性结论的研究路径,从实证的角度去描述安徽一个普通村庄因现代化的扩散而导致的乡村政治文化的变迁,从而试图说明现代化的扩散对乡村政治文化变迁的影响。     

Tree health mapping with multispectral remote sensing data at UC Davis, California

Tree health is a critical parameter for evaluating urban ecosystem health and sustainability. Traditionally, this parameter has been derived from field surveys. We used multispectral remote sensing data and GIS techniques to determine tree health at the University of California, Davis. The study area (363 ha) contained 8,962 trees of 215 species. Tree health conditions were mapped for each physiognomic type at two scales: pixel and whole tree. At the pixel scale, each tree pixel within the tree crown was classified as either healthy or unhealthy based on vegetation index values. At the whole tree scale, raster based statistical analysis was used to calculate tree health index which is the ratio of healthy pixels to entire tree pixels within the tree crown. The tree was classified as healthy if the index was greater than 70%. Accuracy was checked against a random sample of 1,186 trees. At the whole tree level, 86% of campus trees were classified as healthy with 88% mapping accuracy. At the pixel level, 86% of the campus tree cover was classified as healthy. This tree health evaluation approach allows managers to identify the location of unhealthy trees for further diagnosis and treatment. It can be used to track the spread of disease and monitor seasonal or annual changes in tree health. Also, it provides tree health information that is fundamental to modeling and analysis of the environmental, social, and economic services produced by urban forests.     

转型时期中国城市社区经济类型、特征及发展

改革开放以来，适应经济社会的转型与变迁，中国城市社区经济逐渐兴起并在城市社区生活中日益发 挥着越来越重要的作用，类型多样、特点鲜明的城市社区经济不仅为社区建设与发展提供了强大的物质经济支持，而且 吸纳了大量的城市社区富余劳动力，从而有利于增强社区凝聚力，提高了社区整合程度，促进整个社会的和谐发展。为 此，一方面我们要切实转变思想、更新观念，实现传统社区经济向现代社区经济的转变，另一方面因地制宜，结合实际，不 断创新发展社区经济思路与模式，切实提高社区居民生活水平，同时，提高管理水平，积极推进社区经济发展。     

常德市区域可持续发展评价指标体系构建

区域可持续发展能力的评价 ,是实现区域可持续发展的关键与前提。利用层次分析法和主成分分析法 ,构建常德市区域可持续发展能力的评价指标体系 ,从总量规模和结构协调两个方面对常德市区域可持续发展能力进行评价 ,可为常德市区域可持续发展的实施提供科学的依据     

科技兴市:佛山跨世纪的战略选择

作者运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法对佛山市经济发展的实践予以深刻剖视后指出:佛山市经济建设处在从物质投入主导型向科技进步主导塑转变的转折点上,在跨世纪的经济发展与经济竞争中,佛山市必须实行科技兴市的新发展战略,作者对佛山市科技兴市战略的涵义,目标,条件作了深入分析,并进而设计了科技兴市战略的运行机制和政策落点。     

First Nations and community economic development: a case study

A training project in a northern Canadian community providedan opportunity to examine participatory planning approachesand the meaning of work in First Nations communities. Focusgroups conducted three years after the unsuccessful interventionof a community economic development (CED) project suggest thatcomplex factors such as lack of support from community leadersand rate of pay for workers determine whether CED is alwaysappropriate in northern, First Nations contexts.     

An alternative to farmer age as an indicator of life-cycle stage: The case for a farm family age index

In studies of farming, the age of the principal decision-maker (PDM) has been associated with numerous farm structural and managerial features and has been widely accepted as a good indicator of the influence of life-cycle factors on decision-making. As such, it has become an important aspect of many quantitative studies of agricultural change. However, contemporary studies of family farming demonstrate that the concept of a single PDM in family farms is becoming an anachronism as alternative enterprises, pluriactivity and the scale of family farms force more diffuse management/operating systems. This raises questions concerning whether the age of the PDM can still be taken as representative of farm structure, strategy or life-cycle stage? Using a study conducted in the Grampian Mountains region of Scotland in 2003 this note investigates the impact of using an alternative index—compiled by averaging the age of family members working on the farm. It suggests that PDM age is a relatively poor indicator of farm structural and managerial features compared to a family age index and calls for researchers to think about alternative approaches to measuring ‘age’ as an indicator.