论“莱西会议精神”对新时期全面深化农村基层党组织建设的价值和意义

农村基层党组织是党在农村的神经末梢,也是党的路线、方针、政策的"终端"推动者和实践者。现阶段农村党组织建设面临新兴组织不断涌现与党组织作用削弱的不适应,"权力和资源缺失"与服务刚性增强的不适应,村民自治进一步发展与群众政治参与欠充分的不适应,群众诉求多样化与满足渠道单一的不适应,部分党员党性不强、意识淡化与始终保持先进性的要求不适应等问题。在加强以党支部为核心的农村基层组织建设的"莱西会议精神"指导下,全面深化农村基层党组织建设:思想上高度认识是前提,加强支部建设是核心,坚持法治、完善村民自治是重点,紧扣服务、创新制度是关键,统筹协调、综合配套是保障。     

Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

湖北省乡镇企业1978—2002年发展概况、问题及对策研究

1978～2002年,湖北省乡镇企业在企业单位数量、对经济增长贡献及转移农村剩余劳动力等方面对该省经济产生了重要的推动作用。然而,随着市场经济体制的深入发展和不断完善,乡镇企业发展也遇到了前所未有的困难。本文在深入分析当前乡镇企业所面临的问题基础上,提出了乡镇企业未来发展的战略对策。     

Comprehensive neighbourhood mapping: developing a powerful tool for child protection

This paper proposes ‘comprehensive neighbourhood mapping’ as a schema for gathering and interpreting information within a given geographical area which is informed by imaginative thinking about the safety of children and young people from sexual crime. It would build upon current forms of profiling by local authorities, health authorities and central Government. CNM would actively involve local people, in partnership with agencies, in ‘mapping’ danger points and support points. Eight components are discussed, including environmental issues, locations of sex offenders, sites where teenagers meet and share information, supportive individuals and organizations. Some issues for pilot projects are discussed, including the need to set up planning and implementation groups and to integrate CNM into wider child protection and community safety strategies. CNM is grounded in an ecological perspective which sees partnership approaches as essential and believes an overarching view of neighbourhood needs, based on detailed local information and understanding of how different forms of harm interconnect, is crucial in developing child protection strategies. At times of acute official anxiety about community ‘lynch‐mob’ reactions to known paedophiles, CNM aims to build communities which instead are informed and thoughtful about child protection. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从社会文化价值因素和社会结构看中国近代科学落后的原因——李约瑟难题再探

半个世纪以来 ,李约瑟博士提出的难题 ,引起了我国学者的热烈讨论。本文仅从中国社会文化价值因素和社会结构的角度对中国近代科学落后的原因进行再探讨。中国近代社会是封建专制、封闭禁锢的社会结构 ,其特征是高度集权、封闭禁锢、以人治代替法制 ,这种社会结构形成了一种内向的、稳定的、隔绝的文化机制。因此 ,阻碍了中国近代科学的发展。     

人力资本投资与个人收入能力

讨论了人力资本的经济价值，通过建立教育投资模型，训练投资模型及流动投资模型，指出了正规教育投资，在职培训投资，迁移与流动投资对人力资本收入能力的影响。经分析表明，个人的人力资本现时存量与个人的未来收入能力之间存在正相关。     

论《四库总目》文学批评的经世价值取向

明末清初 ,宋明理学已经发展到极端 ,于是清初文人倡导儒家传统的经世致用思想以救理学空疏浮泛之弊 ,经世思想成为一时社会思潮的主流。《四库全书总目》的文学批评无论是功用价值论、创作主客体论还是艺术风格论都由此而带上浓郁的经世色彩     

从不同价值领域看中国传统价值观

对不同价值领域间关系的定位与评判是反映人们价值观的一个重要维度。中国传统价值观在道德价值与非道德价值领域、家庭生活与政治生活领域、道德价值与超道德的神圣价值领域、不同文化领域之间的关系上都表现出一元论的倾向。我们应立足于领域分离、价值多元的现代背景对其进行反思 ,以构建有中国特色的价值观念体系     

20世纪六七十年代泰国经济开发中的民族矛盾

2 0世纪六七十年代 ,随着经济开发活动的展开 ,泰国的民族矛盾也呈激化趋势。之所以如此 ,原因在于政府在对少数民族地区的经济开发过程中实行了一些不妥甚至是错误的政策和措施。文章对此进行了深入探讨