新时期贪污贿赂犯罪防控问题研究——基于法经济学视角的实证分析

贪污贿赂犯罪人员利用职权谋取私利具有经济学理性特征，因此，其行为必然遵从经济学的基本法则。用经济分析的方法研究了贪污贿赂犯罪的产生机理，探讨了贪污贿赂犯罪的预防措施。基于犯罪经济成本收益理论，通过实证分析，认为应增大犯罪成本，控制犯罪收益，以有效预防和减少贪污贿赂犯罪。     

Economic and economic statistical designs for three-level control charts

In some situations, an appropriate quality measure uses three or more discrete levels to classify a product characteristic. For these situations, some control charts have been developed based on statistical criteria regardless of economic considerations. In this paper, we develop economic and economic statistical designs (ESD) for 3-level control charts. We apply the cost model proposed by Costa and Rahim.[Economic design of X charts with variable parameters: the Markov chain approach, J Appl Stat 28 (2001), 875–885] Furthermore, we assume that the length of time that the process remains in control is exponentially distributed which allows us to apply the Markov chain approach for developing the cost model. We apply a genetic algorithm to determine the optimal values of model parameters by minimizing the cost function. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed models and to compare the cost of the pure economic and ESD for three-level control charts. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted in this numerical example.     

基于同城化视角的人口空间动态与区域经济发展耦合关联机理研究

人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关系是同城化区域间共同面对的重要课题。本文在解构人口空间动态维度主体的基础上,将人口空间动态的诉求机制与动因机理架构于更低交易费用的利益诉求之上,解析人口空间动态的模式选择,深入探讨人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关联性。在此基础上,提出引导人口流动与合理分布的策略。研究成果将有助于更好地理解同城化态势下人口空间演变的动因机理,为同城区域的经济发展、城市规划、文化交融等方面的科学设计提供重要参考。     

城市经济圈发展助推区域一体化——兼论南沙新区与港澳的经济合作

根据区域一体化理论,结合新时期广东省在推进珠三角一体化中,建立和发展广佛肇、深莞惠和珠中江三个经济圈的实践,分析了区域经济一体化对区域整体发展的新意义、地位和作用,讨论了珠江三角洲通过建设和发展若干个以经济发展为核心的现代都市圈,对于新时期加强与港澳经济合作,促进区域经济一体化的更好发展颇具深远的意义和作用。     

基于熵理论的河北省可持续发展水平评价研究

根据2000—2009年国家统计年鉴中河北省的有关数据，选取有代表性的指标，构造评价可持续发展水平的指标体系，并采用熵理论确定各指标的权重，以观察近10年来河北省经济社会可持续发展的具体情况。实证研究结果表明：河北省正逐渐迈向可持续发展的道路,但任重道远。根据省际具体情况，在实证研究的基础上，就河北省经济社会的长期可持续发展提出了若干建议。     

从农村基层民主制度运行成本看当前农民政治冷漠的根本原因

我国农村基层民主近年来在广度和深度上都得到了较大发展。但是,在这种发展的表象背后,却隐藏着农民政治冷漠的客观真象。对此,既有的"复合因果论"具有一定解释力,但也有值得补遗之处。农村基层民主制度运行成本与运行绩效的不对称、农民个体承担的基层民主制度运行成本过高才是导致当前农民政治冷漠的根本原因。     

Trying to stay ahead of the curve in Chile's economic development: exploring a way out of the middle‐income trap through pragmatic export development

Underneath impressive growth levels, the Chilean economy displays signs of being caught in a middle‐income trap. It has been unable to improve its productivity, increase the added value of its exports or upgrade its value chain. Its economy cannot compete either with low‐wage countries or highly productive, innovative countries. Its export strategy based on export promotion seems to have outlived its usefulness. It achieved remarkable quantitative success, but must now attend qualitative attributes. Instead of regarding market‐driven export promotion and state‐led export development as substitutes, this article proposes to view them as alternatives in different stages of development. To choose the appropriate time, more attention should be given to non‐traditional, structural indicators, like export sophistication and political‐institutional capabilities.     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

高铁网络下的中国十大城市群旅游交通格局及其经济联系的比较研究

旅游交通是旅游经济发展中重要的内容之一,通过对中国十大城市群城市旅游交通可达性、铁路交通流分布情况与旅游经济联系、总量和隶属度进行计算,借助Arcgis10.2对中国十大城市群交通空间流分布情况和旅游经济联系进行空间可视化处理,并对计算结果进行综合比较分析。研究发现:高铁使得中国十大城市群城市旅游交通可达性水平得到大幅提升,且交通流分布均衡。中国十大城市群城市可达性的提升给城市旅游经济带来了一定的积极影响。高铁网络下中国十大城市群旅游经济联系分布不均衡。     

井壁稳定性分析在靖边气田水平井钻井设计中的应用简

井壁稳定性问题（即井壁坍塌破裂）会引起系列严重的井下卡钻井漏等事故。靖边气田在钻井过程中,钻遇的地层当中存在多煤层,井壁稳定性问题十分突出,在该地区水平井钻井设计当中进行井壁稳定性分析有着重要的意义。分析了井壁围岩应力分布规律并建立地层坍塌（破裂）压力计算模式,根据库仑-摩尔强度准则和最大拉应力破裂准则,计算井壁坍塌（破裂）压力与钻井液安全密度窗口。通过实验研究分析煤层坍塌压力和破裂压力随井斜角、方位角变化规律,提出合理的方位角优选方案,指导水平井钻井方案设计。