中心与边缘的关系重建：南京国民政府时期的西北开发活动分析

时势危机促使国人关注西北。南京国民政府时期的西北开发经由朝野互动,最终演变成中心与边缘关系的重建,其最终目标仍是指向国家生存和复兴。它依赖的路径则是在中心与边缘的身份认同中通过文明与野蛮的界定,尤其是通过把“野蛮”标注于西北的具体人物阶层,使作为文明的代表者、阐释者的中央获得了无上的威权,使中央威权能在地方重建。这也是传统的经营边疆的政治手法在近代中国向现代民族国家转型过程中的再次回归。     

遗传算法在入侵检测中的应用

介绍了基于模型推理和基于模型两种入侵检测系统,提出了一种新的基于智能体技术的入侵检测系统体系结构,解决了传统集中式入侵检测系统的弊病,将任务处理和数据分布到网络各个结点上,充分利用网络资源协同完成入侵检测任务;介绍了遗传算法在该系统中的应用,因系统安全的先验知识体现在对原始数据中有价值特征属性变量集的选择上,故利用遗传算法对特征属性变量子集的选择进行优化,找到相对最优的由特征向量表示的特征属性变量集,以降低入侵检测系统的负荷。     

基于二阶段嵌套锡尔系数的人口分布的差异研究

文章首先提出了人口分布锡尔系数的概念及其一阶、二阶分解方法,接着以江苏省为研究区域,基于三大地带（苏南、苏中和苏北）、13个地级市、106个县（县级市、市辖区）三级结构的地域行政单元,分别运用一次、二次分解对全省的人口分布的区域差异进行细分测度．将江苏省人口分布的差异性分解为苏南、苏中、苏北三大地带闯的差异、三大地带内地级市之间的差异以及各地级市的内部差异三部分。其主要结论为：以地级市为计算单元的一阶段分解结果显示．苏南、苏中和苏北三个地带间人口分布的差异性是造成一阶段分解的全省人口分布差异的主要原因;以县级行政单元的二阶段分解结果表明．地级市内部的差异是江苏省人口分布的整体差异的主要构成部分;通过运用局部G统计量对各县级单元人口分布的热点探测发现,“热点”地区的人口分布差异性大．“冷点”地区的差异性小．     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

Notes on authors

Social network analysis (SNA), a method which can be used to explore networks in various contexts, has received increasing attention. Drawing on the development of European smoke-free policy, this paper explores how a mixed-method approach to SNA can be utilised to investigate a complex policy network. Textual data from public documents, consultation submissions and websites were extracted, converted and analysed using plagiarism detection software and quantitative network analysis and qualitative data from public documents and 35 interviews were thematically analysed. While the quantitative analysis enabled understanding of the network’s structure and components, the qualitative analysis provided in-depth information about specific actors’ positions, relationships and interactions. The paper establishes that SNA is suited to empirically testing and analysing networks in EU policy-making. It contributes to methodological debates about the antagonism between qualitative and quantitative approaches and demonstrates that qualitative and quantitative network analysis can offer a powerful tool for policy analysis.     

A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth‐based enumeration tests

This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth‐based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are functions of correlated count data. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the type I and type II error rates. For a balanced experimental design, the likelihood ratio test and the main effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) test for microbiological methods demonstrated nominal values for the type I error rate and provided the highest power compared with a test on weighted averages and two other ANOVA tests. The likelihood ratio test is preferred because it can also be used for unbalanced designs. It is demonstrated that an increase in power can only be achieved by an increase in the spiked number of organisms used in the experiment. The power is surprisingly not affected by the number of dilutions or the number of test samples. A real case study is provided to illustrate the theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于solaris平台的DNS服务器侦测和阻止DOS攻击的实现

DNS服务器所面临的威胁集中表现出了互连网的脆弱性,针对DNS服务器的拒绝服务攻击是DNS服务器面临的最大威胁.提出了一种针对查询攻击进行侦测和阻止的思路,并且在solaris的平台上用perl语言来实现,能够保证DNS服务器有效地抵御常规攻击,为正常用户提供及时的服务.同时,本文也对伪造源IP的分布式拒绝服务攻击提出了一种解决方案.     

“It's the Beast Thing”

This article examines the representations of men and masculinities in contemporary crime narratives featuring a female protagonist. These “chick dick” stories (which adapt elements from the hardboiled detective novel, film noir, chick lit, and chick flicks) repeatedly engage with the gendered power dynamics made visible and problematic through the intersection of “chick” and crime genres, most particularly the sexualization of violence. In these narratives, popular masculinities operate as deployable concepts to dramatize contemporary gender relations. By tapping into the popular sentiment of a “crisis in masculinity,” chick dick texts also mobilize a rhetoric of unrepresentable male victimization and individual male pathologies. This strategy highlights the spaces and places in which masculinities are made vulnerable at the same time as it offers simplistic and individualized explanations for the systemic sexualized violence that dominate these narratives.     

Asymptotic behaviour of a test statistic for detection of change in mean of vectors

The paper gives an asymptotic distribution of a test statistic for detecting a change in a mean of random vectors with dependent components. The studied test statistic has a form of a maximum of a square Euclidean norms of vectors with components being standardized partial cumulative sums of deviations from means. The limit distribution was obtained using a result of Piterbarg [1994. High deviations for multidimensional stationary Gaussian processes with independent components. In: Zolotarev, V.M. (Ed.), Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, pp. 197–210].