浅谈发展中国家的经济安全

对影响发展中国家经济安全的因素进行了系统地分析 ,认为 :发展中国家参与经济全球化的起始条件是决定其经济安全的内在因素 ;发达国家推行经济全球化的战略意图和政策举措是影响发展中国家经济安全的深层次因素 ;经济全球化是影响发展中国家经济安全的环境因素。文章在此基础上对发展中国家经济安全的内涵进行了较为深入地探讨     

WTO与政府经济管理

加入WTO不仅使政府的经济管理理念、方式、程序等产生全新的变革,而且引发了政府经济管理的重新定位,更进一步强化了政府的服务职能。重新建构政府经济管理体制,转变政府职能,以应对WTO的挑战,从而实现政府经济管理的创新,增强政府经济管理能力。     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficient designs based on orthogonal arrays of type I and type II for experiments using units ordered over time or space

For a wide variety of applications, experiments are based on units ordered over time or space. Models for these experiments generally may include one or more of: correlations, systematic trends, carryover effects and interference effects. Since the standard optimal block designs may not be efficient in these situations, orthogonal arrays of type I and type II, which were introduced in 1961 by C.R. Rao [Combinatorial arrangements analogous to orthogonal arrays, Sankhya A 23 (1961) 283–286], have been recently used to construct optimal and efficient designs for many of these experiments. Results in this area are unified and the salient features are outlined.     

地力山土族生计方式与家庭经济结构

地力山是甘南藏族自治州卓尼县杓哇土族乡的一个纯土族自然村。由于特定的历史、自然和社会原因,形成了以农为主牧业为辅的传统生计方式。随着时代的变化,兼事务工成为了传统生计方式的补充。在地力山土族家庭经济过程中,生计方式支配着资源要素的投入方向,而资源要素在不同方向上的配置最终构成其家庭经济的各个形态,形态之间以及具体形态内部存在的动态性,为其进一步调整提供了内在条件。     

悼红轩里增删遍,料定知音旷代存——拜读贺信民先生《红情绿意——<红楼梦>点面论》

三十多年的耕耘,《红情绿意——〈红楼梦〉点面论》的面世,成为贺信民先生贡献于红学界的又一丰硕成果。书中宏观运幄与微观烛照兼长,用生命体验来感悟红楼,在慧眼洞察的缕缕新意之中折射着贺信民先生“研红”的风雨征程,折射着红学界积火传薪的优良学术传承。     

潘懋元谈大学教学改革

改革开放以后我国的高等教育是从体制改革入手的，而后逐步过渡到课程、教学改革。改革的前提是增加投入，关键是体制改革，核心是教学改革，其中必须认识“关键”与“核心”的辩证关系。在教学改革中，要辩证地处理好教学过程中知识与智能的关系；专才与通才的关系；教师主导与学生主体等几对关系。除关注学习国内外的先进教学方法之外，教师还可以根据学科专业特点和学生实际，改革和创新教学方法。信息化时代的到来，使得传统教学面临许多新的难题，还需要不断改革探索。大学教学管理制度方面的改革目前主要应在修正学分制和构建内外结合的教学质量保障体制方面下工夫。     

语调变体解构

正确把握语调变体是言语交际成败的关键;口语中不同语调的使用表述了说话人不同的思想感情和态度.也正是这种语用语调的变异导致了语义理解和思想表达的细微差别,差之毫厘,谬以千里.本文从语调功能,常规语调运用及语调变体三个角度,以翔实的例句分析,对英语语调变体进行解构.     

文化科学的意蕴：意义理解和价值判断——马克斯&#183;韦伯《社会科学方法论》对人文社会科学研究的启示

《社会科学方法论》是马克斯·韦伯方法论著述的代表作，书中突出了韦伯方法论学说的主要概念。文章着力探究了韦伯方法论学说的思维元点和维度方法，并通过理解这些概念和思想所处的理论境域，分析和讨论了在此基础上其所涉及的一般性问题，揭示马克斯·韦伯《社会科学方法论》对我们进行人文社会科学研究的意义和价值。     

阜新经济转型发展方向研究

在分析总结法国洛林和德国鲁尔等地区煤炭产业转型的成功经验基础上,对阜新与国外煤炭产区的经济转型进行了宏观对比分析,并根据阜新实际,对经济转型的接续产业和劳动力转移途径进行了研究探讨。在此基础上,提出了阜新经济转型重点应向现代农业和现代服务业转移,调整优化第二产业,并就经济转型中的劳动力就业、转型资金筹集和环境保护等问题提出了政策和措施建议。