绍兴市贷款产出效率分析

通过对1991-2004年绍兴市实现的GDP与占用贷款变动关系的统计分析,指出贷款产出效率持续走低存在的问题,在分析了贷款产出效率下降的主要原因后,提出了相应的对策建议.     

高校德育低效的内因分析

高校德育低效除社会大环境的负面影响外,高校德育自身的问题也不可忽视。智德分离;不尊重学生的主体地位;忽视培育和发展学生的情感、忽视学生的差异和个性;德育与学生的生活和需要脱节;育德者的人格不适应德育的要求等德育自身的缺陷是德育低效的内在原因。     

On the Convergence of the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Method for Latent Variable Models

While much used in practice, latent variable models raise challenging estimation problems due to the intractability of their likelihood. Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML), as proposed by Geyer & Thompson (1992 ), is a simulation-based approach to maximum likelihood approximation applicable to general latent variable models. MCML can be described as an importance sampling method in which the likelihood ratio is approximated by Monte Carlo averages of importance ratios simulated from the complete data model corresponding to an arbitrary value of the unknown parameter. This paper studies the asymptotic (in the number of observations) performance of the MCML method in the case of latent variable models with independent observations. This is in contrast with previous works on the same topic which only considered conditional convergence to the maximum likelihood estimator, for a fixed set of observations. A first important result is that when is fixed, the MCML method can only be consistent if the number of simulations grows exponentially fast with the number of observations. If on the other hand, is obtained from a consistent sequence of estimates of the unknown parameter, then the requirements on the number of simulations are shown to be much weaker.     

钢纤维混凝土基本性能试验研究

通过对30个立方体试块抗压强度试验,分析了钢纤维对普通混凝土的增强作用;通过对30个小梁试件三分点加载抗折试验,研究了体积率对钢纤维混凝土(SFRC)荷载-挠度关系及荷载-极限应变关系的影响.在脆性基体中掺入钢纤维,有效地提高了复合材料承受荷载时阻止裂缝引发与扩展的能力,达到对混凝土的增强效果,尤其是对于抗折强度的增强作用,使混凝土的破坏形式由脆性破坏变为塑性破坏.     

公平与效率关系的再思考

公平已成为当代中国的热点问题。市场经济是科学认识公平与效率关系的逻辑起点。而市场扭曲和政府错位是目前社会公平陷于困境的主要原因。只有当政府和企业各司其职 ,也就是政府致力于公平 ,企业专注于效率时 ,公平和效率的冲突才能得到有效缓解     

完善我国合同法应借鉴《国际商事合同通则》

1999年10月1日后正式实施的《中华人民共和国合同法》已经借鉴了当今发达国家先进的合同法立法经验和国际惯例,但与其它国家和有关国际公约的立法相比较,若干条文和规定仍然是粗线条的。文章以《国际商事合同通则》为例与我国合同法对比,探讨了我国合同立法在合同的成立、合同效力问题、精神损害赔偿、“意外条款”的效力、合同的解释等方面的一些缺陷,以期对我国合同法的完善有所借鉴。     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

GMM tests for the Katz family of distributions

Generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to develop tests for discriminating discrete distributions among the two-parameter family of Katz distributions. Relationships involving moments are exploited to obtain identifying and over-identifying restrictions. The asymptotic relative efficiencies of tests based on GMM are analyzed using the local power approach and the approximate Bahadur efficiency. The paper also gives results of Monte Carlo experiments designed to check the validity of the theoretical findings and to shed light on the small sample properties of the proposed tests. Extensions of the results to compound Poisson alternative hypotheses are discussed.     

A Note on the Role of the Propensity Score for Estimating Average Treatment Effects

Hahn [Hahn, J. (1998). On the role of the propensity score in efficient semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects. Econometrica 66:315-331] derived the semiparametric efficiency bounds for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) and the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). The variance of ATET depends on whether the propensity score is known or unknown. Hahn attributes this to “dimension reduction.” In this paper, an alternative explanation is given: Knowledge of the propensity score improves upon the estimation of the distribution of the confounding variables.     

英语写作中有效反馈信息的探讨

文章简要阐述了反馈信息,论述了作文工作研究的意义及在作文写作中有效的信息反馈形式,提出了增强写作能力的可行措施。