东北林区社会保障发展刍议

东北林区社会保障制度覆盖面窄、社会化程度低、保障功能没有得到充分发挥。这主要是由社会保障法律制度缺失、东北林区经济发展水平相对滞后、林区劳动者社会保障意识淡薄，以及东北林区管理体制不顺造成的。为了进一步完善林区社会保障制度，东北林区应该提高相关参与主体的社会保障意识，实现政企、企社、政社分开，实施社会保障属地化管理，促进林区劳动就业，保障林区劳动者的最低生活水平，加快社会保障立法的进程。     

Balanced Asymmetrical Nearly Orthogonal Designs for first and second order effect estimation

A method for constructing asymmetrical (mixed-level) designs, satisfying the balancing and interaction estimability requirements with a number of runs as small as possible, is proposed in this paper. The method, based on a heuristic procedure, uses a new optimality criterion formulated here. The proposed method demonstrates efficiency in terms of searching time and optimality of the attained designs. A complete collection of such asymmetrical designs with two- and three-level factors is available. A technological application is also presented.     

Designing Experiments with Respect to 'Standardized' Optimality Criteria

We introduce a new class of `standardized' optimality criteria which depend on `standardized' covariances of the least squares estimators and provide an alternative to the commonly used criteria in design theory. Besides a nice statistical interpretation the new criteria satisfy an extremely useful invariance property which allows an easy calculation of optimal designs on many linearly transformed design spaces.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Bosq, D. Nonparametric Statistics for Stochastic Processes: Estimation and Prediction
Khuri, A.I., Mathew, T. & Sinha, B.K. Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models
Latouche, G. & Ramaswami, V. Introduction to Matrix Analytic Methods in Stochastic Modeling
Maitra, A.P. & Sudderth, W.D. Discrete Gambling and Stochastic Games
Rolski, T., Schmidli, H., Schmidt, V. & Teugels, J. Stochastic Processes for Insurance and Finance
Chung, K.L. & Williams, R.J. Introduction to Stochastic Integration     

开放经济条件下我国总铸币税最优化分析——基于成本最小化视角

开放经济条件下我国不仅有国内铸币税收入,还有国际铸币税收入,不仅有国际铸币收入,还有国际铸币税支出,同时国内铸币税和国际铸币税还互相影响。本文从成本最小化角度分析开放经济条件下我国总铸币税的最优化条件,并分析其对我国政策的启示。     

Plans And Decisions

Counterexamples are constructed for classical decision theory, turning on the fact that actions must often be chosen in groups rather than individually, i.e., the objects of rational choice are plans. It is argued that there is no way to define optimality for plans that makes the finding of optimal plans the desideratum of rational decision-making. An alternative called locally global planning is proposed as a replacement for classical decision theory. Decision-making becomes a non-terminating process without a precise target rather than a terminating search for an optimal solution.     

A procedure for optimal augmentation of multidimensional designs

The augmentation of an existing multidimensional design is discussed from the point of view of estimability of certain two-factor interactions which are nonestimable from the original design. A general procedure is proposed which achieves this with a minimal number of additional assemblies and which is optimal in a certain sense. The individual steps in this procedure are described in detail and illustrated by an example.     

Novel criteria to exclude the surrogate paradox and their optimalities

When the primary outcome is hard to collect, a surrogate endpoint is typically used as a substitute. However, even when a treatment has a positive average causal effect (ACE) on a surrogate endpoint, which also has a positive ACE on the primary outcome, it is still possible that the treatment has a negative ACE on the primary outcome. Such a phenomenon is called the surrogate paradox and greatly challenges the use of surrogates. In this paper, we provide criteria to exclude the surrogate paradox. Our criteria are optimal in the sense that they are sufficient and “almost necessary” to exclude the paradox: If the conditions are satisfied, the surrogate paradox is guaranteed to be absent, whereas if the conditions fail, there exists a data-generating process with surrogate paradox that can generate the same observed data. That is, our criteria capture all the observed information to exclude the surrogate paradox.     

优选论比较标记理论的解释力

比较标记理论是优选论发展过程中的重要进展之一,它将经典优选论中的标记性制约条件拆分为“新有标记性制约条件”与“旧有标记性制约条件”,并通过它们的不同等级排列来解决传统理论框架内很难解决的一些复杂的语音现象。本文将概述这一理论的基本思想,并通过阿拉伯梅肯语和澳大利亚拉尔地尔语中的音变现象来探讨该理论的解释力。     

Optimizing the test power for a radiation retention model in the human body

The model that describes the retention in lungs of radioisotope particles is studied in this paper, considering the situation of an accident in facilities that handle radioactive materials. Optimal times to make the bioassays are computed for D‐ and c‐optimality, and efficiencies for the computed designs are provided and compared. Moreover, the test power is checked by means of simulations and replications. After that the inverse of the Fisher information matrix is compared to an estimation of the covariance matrix of the parameters. Finally, a study taking into consideration the randomness of the designs space is performed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.