Assessing the Playing Field: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Internet Sports Gambling Behavior

Internet gambling is growing rapidly, as is concern about its possible effect on the public’s health. This paper reports the results of the first prospective longitudinal study of actual Internet sports gambling behavior during eight study months. Data include recorded fixed-odds bets on the outcome of sporting contests and live-action bets on the outcome of events within contests for 40,499 Internet sports gambling service subscribers who enrolled during February 2005. We tracked the following primary gambling behaviors: daily totals of the number of bets made, money bet, and money won. We transformed these variables into measures of gambling involvement. We analyzed behavior for both fixed-odds and live-action bets. The median betting behavior of the 39,719 fixed-odds bettors was to place 2.5 bets of €4 (approximately $5.3 US) every fourth day during the median 4 months from first to last bet. This typical pattern incurred a loss of 29% of the amount wagered. The median betting behavior of the 24,794 live-action bettors was to place 2.8 wagers of €4 every fourth day during the median duration of 6 weeks at a loss of 18% of the amount wagered. We also examined the behavior of empirically determined groups of heavily involved bettors whose activity exceeded that of 99% of the sample.     

论文化产业内部结构的划分与演进——基于核心要素的视角

当前理论界对文化产业内部结构划分没有一个令人信服的方法,本文提出“核心要素”的新视角,将文化产业划分为资源型文化产业、制造型文化产业和创意型文化产业。文化产业内部结构的演进是一个客观的历史进程,遵循着由资源型文化产业向制造型文化产业再到创意型文化产业的发展路径。解构文化产业结构并深入研究其演进规律,对文化产业的发展具有重要的指导意义。     

State transition modeling of complex monitored health data

This article considers the analysis of complex monitored health data, where often one or several signals are reflecting the current health status that can be represented by a finite number of states, in addition to a set of covariates. In particular, we consider a novel application of a non-parametric state intensity regression method in order to study time-dependent effects of covariates on the state transition intensities. The method can handle baseline, time varying as well as dynamic covariates. Because of the non-parametric nature, the method can handle different data types and challenges under minimal assumptions. If the signal that is reflecting the current health status is of continuous nature, we propose the application of a weighted median and a hysteresis filter as data pre-processing steps in order to facilitate robust analysis. In intensity regression, covariates can be aggregated by a suitable functional form over a time history window. We propose to study the estimated cumulative regression parameters for different choices of the time history window in order to investigate short- and long-term effects of the given covariates. The proposed framework is discussed and applied to resuscitation data of newborns collected in Tanzania.     

有效产业政策的具体准则构架

随着政策科学在西方的兴起,产业政策评估已经成为各国经济学家和政治学家共同关心的课题,并日益受到各国政府的重视。但对何为有效的产业政策,至今仍是一个需要进一步探讨的重要理论和实践问题。目前,最大多数人的最大福利原则、综合效应标准、生产力标准和国际竞争力标准是评价产业政策是否有效的原则和一般标准,本文拟在此基础上,试从产业政策的制定和执行两大环节中,以制约产业有效性的六个主要因素,来构架有效产业政策的具体准则。     

论港口产业规制契约的重新设计

20世纪70年代以后,在世界范围内出现港口产业规制改革浪潮,竞争机制和私人部门被更多地引入。那么在港口产业规制的新框架下,有必要对规制契约进行重新设计,以满足港口规制实践的需要。对包括价格上限规制、投资规制等在内的港口产业规制契约的核心内容进行了说明,并探讨了契约重新设计中若干关键要素的确定。     

解苦以求安宁：韧性视角下老年人的临终生命质量探究

随着人口死亡模式的转变与老龄化进程的加快,老年人的临终生命质量已成为大众关注的社会问题。本研究参考“身心灵平衡”韧性整合模型构建分析框架,运用半结构式访谈法与实物分析法,深入探索影响老年人临终生命质量的风险性与保护性因素及其作用路径。研究指出,身体的衰弱与疾痛和心理的情绪困扰是老年临终生命质量的风险性因素,它们均会损害老年人原有的平衡状态,且身心二者的负面影响存在相互强化的作用;而内在的灵性能力和外在的社会支持作为保护性因素,能够帮助老年人增强死亡准备、重构生命状态。基于上述结论,研究从身心社灵四个维度重点讨论了社会工作介入老年安宁疗护的发展方向。     

河流健康与水安全思考

河流健康不是严格意义上的科学概念而是一种河流管理的评估工具。人类在开发利用流域水资源的过程中,由于保护不够或滥加利用,一些河流发生污染、断流现象,影响了河流的自然和社会功能,失去了河流的自身价值,危及河流的健康生命。维系河流的健康生命和水安全密切相关。河流污染是我国河流健康的最大威胁,治污是我国现阶段河流生态环境建设的首要任务,同时在水电工程建设中应强化对生态环境的监管。     

国际教育服务贸易:我国的对外贸易地位与对策

近年来国际教育服务贸易的发展呈现出了贸易额增长迅速、留学服务成为国际教育服务的主要提供方式、发达国家在国际教育服务贸易领域占据巨大优势和主导地位、高等教育日益国际化等特点。这对我国教育产业面临严峻的挑战,我国教育产业应正视挑战参与国际竞争。     

国际金融业的产业融合对我国金融业的启示

自20世纪80年代起,发达国家的金融业由产业分立转向产业融合,产业融合成为国际金融业发展的主流。改革开放以来,我国金融业发展迅速,处于产业分立阶段。进入21世纪,我国金融业已经出现了产业融合的萌芽,但是产业融合还未成为金融业的主要发展潮流。论文首先分析国际金融业的产业融合趋势及效应,进而探讨了我国金融业的融合现状,指出了阻碍我国产业融合产生与发展的因素,并在此基础上提出相应的政策与建议。     

贫困大学生心理健康教育工作浅论

本文在分析贫困大学生普遍存在的心理问题的基础上,阐述了加强大学生心理健康教育的主要内容,并积极探索通过心理健康知识宣传、心理评估、个体咨询、团体咨询等途径加大对贫困大学生的心理健康教育力度,以达到提高贫困大学生心理健康水平,促进贫困大学生健康成长的目的。