民间组织参与我国贫困治理的角色及行动策略

民间组织是参与贫困治理的重要社会力量。在我国扶贫开发进程中,民间组织在贫困治理中扮演了扶贫资源有益补充、践行微观贫困治理理念/技术、专业扶贫服务供给等多种角色。民间组织的贫困治理行动是民间组织汲取各类资源并将其传递到扶贫对象的过程。在大扶贫格局中,民间组织扶贫资源汲取已由传统的社会领域延伸至政府部门和市场领域,形成了慈善捐助、政府购买扶贫服务、市场化运作（社会企业）等多种扶贫资源汲取策略。相应的,主要形成了项目机制、市场机制两种扶贫资源传递策略。项目机制的运用表明了民间组织在分化发展的过程中扶贫资源传递的整合,以及民间组织与政府部门协同推进贫困治理的制度化和规范化。市场机制（社会企业）是民间组织扶贫行动的策略创新,对民间组织独立实施贫困治理具有重要意义。     

竞争市场中生产与碳交易策略

在碳排放约束下,利用动态古诺模型,分析厂商如何优化产量、交易碳排放权的规模、净化节约额以实现利润最大化的问题,得到相应的均衡量和各阶段最优量,并给出竞争市场中的企业减排策略以及政府的行为和碳排放权价格对企业减排策略的影响,阐述在竞争市场中减排和碳排放权交易的运行机制。研究发现: 双寡头竞争市场中存在均衡状态;在减排率较低时,制造上获得最高利润,而企业追求过高的减排率将会导致过分依赖碳减排市场而获得较低的利润;制造商应该适时低价购入过量碳排放权,而在高价时卖出多余的碳排放权,以充分利用碳排放权市场以增加利润降低成本;制造商的利润会随着政府碳排放权分配系数的增加而增加。     

减排约束下中国天然气供需安全评价:2006-2014年

为准确把握中国天然气供需安全状态,以2006-2014年的数据为样本,在模糊隶属度函数量化指标值的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵值法确定指标权重,基于线性加权和函数计算均方根进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)中国天然气供需安全指数呈现"N形"波动,2006-2007年天然气供需安全指数上升。2007-2013年天然气供需安全指数年均下降1.7979。2013年以来天然气供需安全指数开始回升,天然气供需安全压力有所缓解。(2)天然气供应安全指数从2006年的17.5914下降到2013年的0.1556,峰谷差17.4359。天然气需求安全指数呈现"W形"波动。天然气市场安全指数相对稳定,2013年以来略有上升,天然气市场风险逐年下降。(3)天然气供需安全很大程度上取决于天然气供应是否安全。因此,建议从确保天然气稳定供应、提高天然气使用效率和降低市场风险方面采取措施,维护天然气供需安全。     

An Empirical Process View of Inverse Regression

A common approach taken in high‐dimensional regression analysis is sliced inverse regression, which separates the range of the response variable into non‐overlapping regions, called ‘slices’. Asymptotic results are usually shown assuming that the slices are fixed, while in practice, estimators are computed with random slices containing the same number of observations. Based on empirical process theory, we present a unified theoretical framework to study these techniques, and revisit popular inverse regression estimators. Furthermore, we introduce a bootstrap methodology that reproduces the laws of Cramér–von Mises test statistics of interest to model dimension, effects of specified covariates and whether or not a sliced inverse regression estimator is appropriate. Finally, we investigate the accuracy of different bootstrap procedures by means of simulations.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Functional Computer Output: A Simulation Study in Inverse Problems

Computer models with functional output are omnipresent throughout science and engineering. Most often the computer model is treated as a black-box and information about the underlying mathematical model is not exploited in statistical analyses. Consequently, general-purpose bases such as wavelets are typically used to describe the main characteristics of the functional output. In this article we advocate for using information about the underlying mathematical model in order to choose a better basis for the functional output. To validate this choice, a simulation study is presented in the context of uncertainty analysis for a computer model from inverse Sturm-Liouville problems.     

Functional Partial Linear Single‐index Model

This paper deals with the problem of predicting the real‐valued response variable using explanatory variables containing both multivariate random variable and random curve. The proposed functional partial linear single‐index model treats the multivariate random variable as linear part and the random curve as functional single‐index part, respectively. To estimate the non‐parametric link function, the functional single‐index and the parameters in the linear part, a two‐stage estimation procedure is proposed. Compared with existing semi‐parametric methods, the proposed approach requires no initial estimation and iteration. Asymptotical properties are established for both the parameters in the linear part and the functional single‐index. The convergence rate for the non‐parametric link function is also given. In addition, asymptotical normality of the error variance is obtained that facilitates the construction of confidence region and hypothesis testing for the unknown parameter. Numerical experiments including simulation studies and a real‐data analysis are conducted to evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed method.     

基于家庭策略的贫困代际传递治理

家庭是贫困治理的社会基础,有效阻断贫困的代际传递是贫困治理的重要方式。基于家庭策略的视野,通过对两个贫困家庭在减贫过程中不同减贫方式的分析与比较,探讨家庭策略如何被自主运用来解决贫困问题。研究发现,“反馈模式”的代际关系下,多子女所带来的路径可选择性与关系灵活性让家庭有更大空间采用有效的家庭策略,以“代内合力”和“代际合力”为一部分子女的成长和发展提供更充分的资源及“资源变现”的空间与条件,从而为实现“家庭减贫”创造机会。在巩固脱贫成果和实现乡村振兴进程中,家庭作用的有效发挥能充分激发家庭自我发展的内生动力,从而实现脱贫致富。     

再探政府机构改革“黄宗羲定律”破解之法

被动适应性改革、机构撤并与职能转变缺乏有效互动、改革重横轻纵等诸多原因导致我国历次政府机构改革难以摆脱精简--膨胀--再精简--再膨胀的循环,终陷入"黄宗羲定律"怪圈.建设学习型与服务型政府,实现政府结构与功能互动,横纵改革结合,形成网络化改革治理格局,建立现代公共人力资源管理制度,加强财政监督与立法等,是21世纪我国政府机构改革跳出这一怪圈的出路所在.     

“双碳”目标下农业生态效率测度及影响因素分析

农业生态效率是农业经济和生态环保协调发展的重要体现。文章首先引入农业碳汇效应,构建农业生态效率测度指标体系;其次,基于2010—2019年中国31个省市面板数据,运用熵权法改进的超效率SBM测算各地区农业生态效率;然后运用面板Tobit模型探究农业生态效率影响因素。结果发现：2010—2019年中国农业生态效率总体呈现平稳上升态势,空间上呈现东北地区最高、东部次之、西部较低、中部最低的分布格局;财政支农程度、工业化程度、农业自然环境、农业机械密度对农业生态效率产生负向影响;农业环境规制、科技支持力度、农业资源禀赋、农业人力资本和农业生产能力对农业生态效率产生正向影响。最后,提出合理投入农业要素资源;促进农业生产增长;加大农业科技研发和推广力度;提高农业劳动力素质等建议。     

A dimensionality reduction method of continuous dependent variables based supervised Laplacian eigenmaps

Dimensionality reduction is one of the important preprocessing steps in high-dimensional data analysis. In this paper we propose a supervised manifold learning method, it makes use of the information of continuous dependent variables to distinguish intrinsic neighbourhood and extrinsic neighbourhood of data samples, and construct two graphs according to these two kinds of neighbourhoods. Following the idea of Laplacian eigenmaps, we reveal that on the low-dimensional manifold the neighbourhood structure can be preserved or even improved. Our approach has two important characteristics: (i) it uses dependent variables to find an informative low-dimensional projection which is robust to noisy independent variables and (ii) the objective function simultaneously enlarges the distance between dissimilar samples and pushes similar samples close to each other according to the graph constructed with the help of continuous dependent variables. Our experiments demonstrate that the effectiveness of our method is over their traditional rivals.