基于风险规避和公平偏好的供应链收益共享契约协调研究

在一个简单的二级供应链系统中,建立了供应商和零售商同时具有风险规避和公平偏好的收益共享契约协调模型,通过修正、扩展FS效用收益模型,先后考察并分析了分散决策和集中决策下供应链的协调状态,研究发现,供应商和零售商的风险规避系数和公平偏好系数及收益份额必须满足特定的条件,收益共享契约才能使系统供应链整体达到协调状态;在此基础上,对风险规避和公平偏好因素进行敏感度分析,得到供应商和零售商行为偏好系数对供应链及成员最优订货量的影响;最后进行演化博弈算例分析和结论验证,体现了该协调模型的有效性和实用性。由此说明供应商和零售商的风险规避和公平偏好因素同时作用会改变系统供应链协调时的最优订货量,并对决策人的决策行为产生很大的影响。     

重要数据跨境流动背景下风险路径的识别与分级

重要数据的跨境流动引发了数据安全、国家安全等风险挑战。风险路径的识别和分级是对重要数据跨境流动进行预警管理的重要内容。本文基于复杂网络中的二分网络模型,对重要数据的跨境流动进行研究。首先,通过重要数据跨境流动的二分网络和关联网络识别风险路径;其次,构建基于网络结构和接收节点属性的目标风险路径方法以计算其风险值;最后,对我国某重要行业跨境流动的数据开展实证分析,验证算法的有效性和精准度。本文旨在为重要数据跨境流动的预警管理提供量化方法,有效预防重要数据跨境流动带来的风险,提升我国数据治理能力。     

基于成本核算的政府绩效评价指标体系构建与应用

政府绩效评价是政府评价主体运用一定的评价方法对政府绩效进行考核评价的过程。由于我国政府绩效评价起步较晚,部分地方还存在重投入轻管理、重支出轻绩效的问题,绩效考核结果的导向作用不强,成本核算成为提升政府绩效的核心。因此,文章在成本核算的基础上对政府绩效进行评价,采用层次分析法从经济发展、社会管理、教育科技、资源环境、成本管理、公共服务六大方面构建基于成本核算的政府绩效评价指标体系,将其应用于H市政府的绩效评价工作,从而有效地提高政府的公信力和执行力,同时也有助于推进我国政府绩效评价工作的发展。     

领导风格对员工知识隐藏行为的影响:心理安全感的中介效应和动机氛围的调节效用

企业知识隐藏行为会抑制创新与合作氛围,探究员工知识隐藏行为的诱因对企业团队氛围和价值实现具有重要意义。本研究基于社会交换理论,探索不同类型领导风格与员工知识隐藏行为之间的关系以及内在影响机制,具体包括:剖析谦卑型领导和辱虐型领导与员工知识隐藏行为之间的关系;探究员工心理安全感是否发挥中介作用;分析心理安全感与知识隐藏的关系是否受到不同类型团队动机氛围的调节影响。本研究通过对长三角地区某省的6家科技型公司共820名员工进行问卷调查,利用层次回归模型进行数据处理,结果显示:不同风格的领导行为对知识隐藏行为都产生影响,心理安全感发挥着重要的中介作用。具体而言,谦卑型领导通过心理安全感对知识隐藏行为产生负向影响,辱虐型领导通过心理安全感对知识隐藏行为产生正向影响。此外,动机氛围起到调节作用,其中绩效氛围正向调节员工心理安全感与其知识隐藏行为之间的关系,掌控氛围负向调节员工心理安全感与其知识隐藏行为之间的关系。本研究从领导力视角深化了对于员工知识隐藏行为诱因的认识,从情境视角为心理安全感和知识隐藏的关系构建了边界条件,进一步丰富了领导力、组织行为管理等理论;同时,本研究也为企业知识隐藏行为管理提供了一条清晰的解决思路。为了最大限度抑制知识隐藏行为,企业领导者需要多展示谦卑型的特质,对员工观点持开放态度,愿意吸纳和听取他人意见;要培养员工的心理安全感,让员工在知识分享中能够毫无顾忌;采用鼓励竞争的方式营造团队氛围,提升团队的绩效氛围等。未来将进一步采用多变量来源、多样化情境进行验证,将相关研究结论从中国科技型企业推广到其他研究情境中,从而提高研究结论的外部有效性。     

改革目标和企业风险度测定─—现代企业制度建设的关键

在建立现代企业制度的探索中,原有的“承包制”在实践中已暴露它的不足,与改革的深入不相适应。企业的生机在于竞争和风险。在商品经济条件下,企业经营实际上就是经营者运用创新手段,将受损风险转化为超额收获。而企业生产经营所存在的诸多不确定因素,可以通过概率论中的中心极限定理和经验,借鉴计划评审法（ＰＥＲＴ）中概率估算法对企业的经验风险度作出有价值的测定。     

De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

The Limitations and Opportunities of Business Process Re-engineering in a Politicized Organizational Climate

This paper is concerned with the organizationalchange and project management issues raised by theimplementation of a business process re-engineering(BPR) approach in the politicized hospital context. This is a report of research in progress,focusing on the issues arising at the problem definitionand project planning stages of a BPR application in anoperating theaters department experiencing problems with scheduling and delays. The research designrelies on a case study approach, with the researcher asparticipant observer, as both an adviser to the projectteam and as field interviewer. The paper argues that an ambitious BPR agenda is compromised inat least two regards. First, the lack of precisionsurrounding the focus and methodology of BPR givespolitically motivated actors considerable influence with respect to defining terms of reference in wayswhich will shape potential outcomes in their favor.Second, the complexity and indeterminacy of the businessprocess or patient trail can also diluteredesign attempts. The principal limitations of theapproach thus concern the impracticality of embarking onrapid and radical change working from a blanksheet of paper with respect to organizational and job design. BPR, unlike other organizationdevelopment interventions, is not a contextsensitive approach. The role of project manageris critical in establishing a working balance betweenindividual, occupational, and organizational goals in a manner perceivedto be legitimate in the context. Effective BPR projectmanagement thus requires a combination of political andprocess analysis skills. The principal opportunities of BPR derive from its process orientation,which brings a fresh perspective to a traditionally andfunctionally fragmented organizational setting, andwhich presents a potentially valuable platform for anevolutionary approach to process improvement.     

Comparative probability for conditional events: A new look through coherence

We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation ·, coherence conditions on · are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of ·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence.     

Financial management: Development of scales

This study is a contribution to the development of family resource management scales, specifically financial management scales. Principal axis factor analysis, with varimax rotation, is used to assess underlying relationships in 23 family resource management variables related to time and money resources. Reliability and content, construct, and criterion-related validity of the scales are assessed. Two scales that are reliable and have some degree of validity are developed: frequency of financial problems and frequency of financial management. The scales could be used in future research, teaching, or counseling to organize financial management concepts.Preparation of this research was supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station. Data were collected in conjunction with the cooperative regional research project NC-182, Family Resource Utilization as a Factor in Determining Economic Well-Being of Rural Families. Cooperating states are Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois; her current research interests include gender roles, family financial management, and economic well-being.Her current research interests include family financial management and consumer bankruptcy. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri.Her current research interests include the economic well-being of various family forms. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. Her research interests are economic well-being and quality of life.