资源税对区域财政收入差距影响的实证分析

采用泰尔指数测度1998-2011年我国四大经济区域财政收入差距,分析了1998-2011年各省、四大经济区域以及全国的资源税贡献率,并对泰尔指数的对数时间序列和全国资源税贡献率的对数时间序列进行ADF单位根检验、EG协整检验,并使用双对数回归模型以及误差修正模型演算。结果表明资源税对区域财政收入差异确实具有一定的协调作用,在此基础上提出完善我国资源税制的相关建议,以促进区域财政收入均衡发展。     

复杂性科学革命与演化经济学的发展

复杂性科学革命实质上是演化科学的革命,演化经济学的先驱也是复杂性科学革命的先驱。从方法论角度把复杂性科学定义为整体论科学是不全面的,整体论只是复杂性科学的层级因果论的有机组成部分。与目前复杂性科学流行的做法不同,演化经济学需要发展自身的复杂性研究方法。应当指出的是,应用数学、计量经济学和计算机模拟只是其经验研究方法的一部分,而另一部分则是由更复杂的方法即历史的、比较的、制度的和解释学的方法所构成。自然科学中的复杂性科学革命为演化经济学的发展提供了丰富的灵感来源,但借鉴其成果必须从经济实在自身的复杂性出发。     

Measuring Seat Value in Stadiums and Theaters

We study how the seat value perceived by consumers attending an event in a theater/stadium depends on the location of their seat relative to the stage/field. We develop a measure of seat value, called the Seat Value Index, and relate it to seat location and consumer characteristics. We implement our analysis on a proprietary data set that a professional baseball franchise in Japan collected from its customers, and provide recommendations. For instance, we find that customers seated in symmetric seats on left and right fields might derive very different valuations from the seats. We also find that the more frequent visitors to the stadium report extreme seat value less often when compared with first‐time visitors. Our findings and insights remain robust to the effects of price and game‐related factors. Thus, our research quantifies the significant influence of seat location on the ex‐post seat value perceived by customers. Utilizing the heterogeneity in seat values at different seat locations, we provide segment‐specific pricing recommendations based on a service‐level objective that would limit the fraction of customers experiencing low seat value to a desired threshold.     

A NONPARAMETRIC TEST OF CHANGING CONDITIONAL VARIANCES IN AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME SERIES

A nonparametric test for detecting changing conditional variances in stationary AR(p) time series is proposed in this paper. For AR(1) models, the test statistic is a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic and the asymptotic theory is developed under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. For AR(p) models (p ≥ 2), an approximate test procedure is proposed. The empirical upper percentage points for our test are tabulated for both p = 1 and p = 2 cases and a bootstrap procedure is suggested for the p ≥ 3 case. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the test has very good powers for finite samples under both normal and non-normal errors.     

Bayesian semiparametric models for nonignorable missing mechanisms in generalized linear models

Semiparametric models provide a more flexible form for modeling the relationship between the response and the explanatory variables. On the other hand in the literature of modeling for the missing variables, canonical form of the probability of the variable being missing (p) is modeled taking a fully parametric approach. Here we consider a regression spline based semiparametric approach to model the missingness mechanism of nonignorably missing covariates. In this model the relationship between the suitable canonical form of p (e.g. probit p) and the missing covariate is modeled through several splines. A Bayesian procedure is developed to efficiently estimate the parameters. A computationally advantageous prior construction is proposed for the parameters of the semiparametric part. A WinBUGS code is constructed to apply Gibbs sampling to obtain the posterior distributions. We show through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation experiment that response model coefficent estimators maintain better (when the true missingness mechanism is nonlinear) or equivalent (when the true missingness mechanism is linear) bias and efficiency properties with the use of proposed semiparametric missingness model compared to the conventional model.     

Asymptotic equivalence between two empirical mean residual life processes

There are two mean residual life estimates for right censored data. One is based on the Kaplan-Meier estimate, the other, based on the Susarla-Van Ryzin estimate for survival function. In this paper, we define the empirical mean residual life process for right censored data and show that the two empirical mean residual life processes based on the Kaplan-Meier and Susarla-Van Ryzin estimates are asymptotically equivalent uniformly on an interval under some conditions. Also we discuss the case which the asymptotic equivalence might fail.     

The Block Empirical Likelihood Method of the Semivarying Coefficient Model with Application to Longitudinal Data

In this article, we consider a semivarying coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to semivarying coefficient longitudinal data model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks' theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.     

Convergence rates for empirical bayes estimators of parameters in linear regressin models

In this paper, the convergence rates of the EB estimators of the regression coefficients and the error variance in a linear model are obtained. The rates can approximate to O(n¹) arbitrarily. The convergency of the EB estimators of the regression coefiicients and the variance components in a variance component model is also investigated. The investigation makes use of the results concerning the convergence rates of the EB estimators of the parameters in multi-parameter exponential families.     

自然化现象学视角的“生活世界”变迁

胡塞尔、哈贝马斯、德雷福斯三位哲学家观点具有相通性,他们的共同方向是以公共性理论为切入点,来批判现代科学以实证科学为主导的机械性:胡塞尔从现象本身,来介入"主观体验"的认知科学,哈贝马斯让认知科学与实证科学构成相对独立的科学体系共同促进人类社会的发展,德雷福斯最终完成以自然化现象学的视角来解释生活中的问题,发挥现象学理论的优势,最终让现象学这一哲学理论介入认知科学的发展,令认知科学与实证科学构成相对独立的科学体系。