Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

外语教学与情商培养

作者结合自己在成人外语教学中的实践阐述了外语教学与情商培养之间的辩证关系 :在此基础上对如何培养情商与提高外语教学质量 ,谈了自己独到的见解。     

谈体育教学中的创新人才培养

面对21世纪的人才竞争,体育教学必须培养创新型人才,教师应努力营造良好的教学创新氛围,激发学生主动创新的意识,发展学生的个性,培养其创新人格,提高审美能力,把"要我学"的被动选择变成"我要学"的主体行为。     

关于国有企业经理人员激励机制的思考

建立国有企业经理人员的激励机制是完善现代企业制度和促进国有企业改革的重要举措。文章从管理学和经济学的角度,探讨国有企业经理人员的激励机制,分析了报酬机制、声誉机制和市场竞争机制对经理人员的激励作用、实施方式以及应注意的问题。     

Quality certification, institutions and innovation in local agro-food systems: Protected designations of origin of olive oil in Spain

This article examines the interrelations between establishment of territorial quality certification systems (Protected Designations of Origin or PDOs), diffusion of innovations through local agro-food chains, and the role of the institutions overseeing geographical designations. Empirical analysis is applied to olive oil PDOs in Spain and entails a detailed case study of the “Sierra Mágina” PDO in Andalusia. Making use of the neoinstitutional concept of ‘organised proximity’—and focussing specifically on the problematic of organizational quality—the article assesses characteristics that support the competitive positions of local certified-product production systems. In particular, the authors find that collective organisation and coordination between PDO agents who are locally responsible for quality assurance and protection can enhance local competitiveness. Three hypotheses are confirmed. First, PDO labels can, through the action of PDO regulators, become quality assurance systems for distributors. Second, PDO Regulatory Boards can enhance and coordinate local inter-professional activities, particularly with respect to the diffusion of quality-enhancing innovations and knowledge. Third, the study indicates that local certified-product systems are starting to incorporate quality attributes linked to the environment and sustainable development, although much remains to be accomplished in this regard.     

Seroadaptive Strategies of Vancouver Gay and Bisexual Men in a Treatment as Prevention Environment

British Columbia’s treatment as prevention policy has provided free access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to all HIV-positive provincial residents since 1996. One outcome is an increase in HIV-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM) with suppressed viral loads. Previous cross-sectional analyses indicated that some Vancouver GBM now recognize condomless anal sex with men on HAART who report a suppressed viral load as a seroadaptive strategy. To test the hypothesis that this new strategy, termed viral load sorting (VLS), is recognized and used among by GBM in the Momentum Health Study, we analyzed longitudinal data for HIV-negative/unknown (n = 556) and HIV-positive (n = 218) serostatus participants. Analyses indicated that both groups reported VLS, and that serostatus and Treatment Optimism Scale scores were significant determinants in frequency and use. Results exemplify the medicalization of sex and Rogers’ Diffusion Of Preventative Innovations Model, and they have important implications for HIV research and GBM sexual decision-making.     

论我国区域旅游合作进程中的协调机制创新

随着区域经济合作的不断发展,近年来我国的区域旅游合作取得了一定的进展,但仍然存在着一些问题。为实现区域旅游合作可持续发展,需要建立以政府为主导、以旅游企业为主体、以行业协会为纽带的合作模式,并在此基础上推动合作中协调机制的创新。新的机制主要包括建立跨区域的权威协调机构、完善利益分享和补偿机制、建立区域性旅游集团、打造区域旅游产业集群、提供旅游公共信息等。     

经济全球化背景下的企业技术竞合模式

在经济全球化的背景下,领先企业在继续保持技术创新的前提下,通过“次领先技术”的转移,不仅不会影响其核心竞争力,更会“套牢”技术追随者。而追随企业如能采取正确的策略不仅能摆脱被技术“套牢”的命运,更能加快技术创新的步伐。因此追随企业应在与领先企业形成有效的竞合关系的基础上,制定长期的技术竞争战略。     

福建省城市社区管理体制改革研究

深化城市社区建设的关键在于推进社区管理体制的改革创新。主要指理顺区、街、居关系 ,打破条块分割 ,突出街道社区的作用 ;建立新型的社区财力机制 ,强化社区居委会的自治权 ,改变目前“社区行政化”的倾向 ,真正实现社区自治的目标     

On the probability distribution of economic growth

Three important and significantly heteroscedastic gross domestic product series are studied. Omnipresent heteroscedasticity is removed and the distributions of the series are then compared to normal, normal mixture and normal–asymmetric Laplace (NAL) distributions. NAL represents a skewed and leptokurtic distribution, which is in line with the Aghion and Howitt [1 Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. 1992. A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60: 323–351. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]] model for economic growth, based on Schumpeter's idea of creative destruction. Statistical properties of the NAL distributions are provided and it is shown that NAL fits the data better than the alternatives.