基于人体膳食均衡视角下的我国果蔬消费趋势预测与结构优化

水果和蔬菜是为人体提供矿物质、维生素、膳食纤维等营养元素的重要农产品,我国居民饮食中普遍存在着能量相对过剩、果蔬摄入量不足的问题。以人体膳食均衡为研究视角,研究我国果蔬消费趋势和结构优化问题,结果表明：按照当前的消费趋势发展,我国居民营养摄入不足与过剩同在的问题依然无法得到解决;我国政府在制定水果和蔬菜战略布局的决策中,应综合考虑人体的膳食营养均衡和未来市场营养需求,以实现我国果蔬产业布局优化;消费者在进行水果和蔬菜消费购买行为时,应在营养膳食均衡的基础上进行合理消费。     

顾客非理性消费行为机理探析

非理性消费已经成为零售企业利润的重要来源,得到学术界的普遍关注。认为顾客非理性消费行为是受到内在的、最本质的特殊顾客需要驱使而产生的不合理行为,揭示了驱动顾客非理性消费行为的顾客需要,并探讨了情绪状态因素调节顾客需要与顾客非理性消费行为关系的作用机理。基于416份问卷的调查结果,社交需要、释压需要和求廉需要是驱使顾客产生非理性消费行为的主要内在动因,情绪对特殊的顾客需要具有不同的调节作用。旨在丰富顾客非理性消费行为的知识,为商家实施目标营销、新服务开发提供重要理论支持。     

中国对中亚能源投资的法律问题及对策

中国与中亚在能源方面合作不断加强,逐步形成了更加紧密的能源安全共同体,然而在双方投资与合作过程中诸多相关法律问题也不断涌现,使中国对中亚地区的能源投资风险加大。文章对中亚能源投资中对投资的界定、投资准入、政治风险及环境保护等相关投资法律问题进行研究与分析,提出中国在中亚投资与合作过程中的相应对策,将对中国能源投资规避风险、保护投资利益大有裨益。     

我国居民文化消费影响因素探析

运用我国1983—2012年的数据,通过实证分析考察了可支配收入、教育水平、金融发展和政府文化事业支出对我国居民文化消费的影响。长期均衡分析结果表明,教育水平和金融发展对我国居民文化消费具有显著的促进作用;教育水平提高1%,居民文化消费增加0.454%;金融机构信贷提高1%,居民文化消费增加0.363%;可支配收入和政府文化事业支出对居民文化消费的影响不显著。脉冲响应分析结果表明,可支配收入冲击对居民文化消费的影响在短期由正向转为负向,教育水平冲击和金融发展冲击对居民文化消费短期具有正向影响,政府文化事业支出冲击对居民文化消费短期具有负面影响。根据实证分析的结论,文章提出了扩大我国居民文化消费的政策建议。     

能效标识对节能产品选择的引导效用分析——基于京东家电线上销售的实证检验

搜集冰箱、洗衣机、空调三种大家电的线上销售数据,通过描述性分析、组间差异比较、多元回归分析等方式分析能效标识的市场引导效果。结果显示消费者对不同等级家电产品的选择量存在差异,但不同能效等级间消费者满意度并无明显差异,能效等级并非是影响消费者选择和满意度的显著因素。     

The changing practice of eating: evidence from UK time diaries, 1975 and 2000

This paper examines some central themes about change in consumption behaviour through an empirical investigation of the practice of eating. It analyses patterns of food consumption in the UK using time diary data from 1975 and 2000. The practice of eating is decomposed into four component activities which are used to explore systematically the inter-relationships between social processes - such as commodification and temporal fragmentation - and ways of providing and consuming food. It charts the expansion of eating out, the degree to which it substitutes for other eating activities, and the implications of its development for social relations and the temporal organization of daily life. Analysis reveals that food consumption continues to be differentiated along established lines of social division, although the content of those divisions has changed and varies across components of the practice. Increasing commodification of the food chain is documented, but without appearing to have a corrosive impact on household organization or social relationships. While tendencies indicative of temporal fragmentation are revealed, counter-tendencies exist which suggest that the practice of eating is resilient to many forms of external pressure. Finally, the application of a practice-based analytical approach permits critical evaluation of theories of social transformation.     

中国居民自有住房虚拟租金的一个估算

居民自有住房服务价值应纳入GDP核算,但各国对自有住房服务虚拟租金的估算方法存在差异,当前主要的核算方法为市场租金法和使用成本法。采用使用成本法对中国居民自有住房虚拟租金重新估算,发现2004—2012年间居民自有住房虚拟租金年均达3.2万亿元,最近三年年均达到4万亿。中国统计部门基于建筑成本估算的虚拟租金大大低估了居民居住支出,2004—2012年间年均低估达2.3万亿元,近三年年均低估达3万亿元。调整后的居住消费占GDP比重达到11%~14%,高于官方6%的统计数据,仅自有住房虚拟租金的重新调整就提高了4%~5%的居民消费率,随着居民收入提高,城市化进程加快,居住消费支出还将增长。     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from cointegration and co-feature analysis

The paper investigates the causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Nigeria during the period 1980–2006. The results of our estimation show that real gross domestic product (rGDP) and electricity consumption (ele) are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption (ele) to (rGDP). Then we applied Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the rGDP and electricity consumption (ele) series. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trend and the cyclical components of the two series, which seems to suggest that the Granger causality is possibly related with the business cycle. The paper suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency in the supply and use of electricity can further stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. The results should, however, be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of loss in power associated with the small sample size and the danger of omitted variable bias that could result from the use of bi-variate analysis.     

Efficacy of Risk-Based, Culturally Sensitive Ogaa (Walleye) Consumption Advice for Anishinaabe Tribal Members in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has produced Ogaa (walleye— Sander vitreus ) consumption advisories since 1996 for Anishinaabe from GLIFWC member tribes in the 1837 and 1842 ceded territories of Wisconsin. GLIFWC's advisory maps were revised in 2005 to address cultural sensitivities (to protect tribal lifeways), to utilize recent mercury exposure information, and to incorporate changes in advisory levels for methyl mercury. Lake-specific, risk-based, culturally sensitive consumption advice was provided on color-coded maps for two groups: children under age 15 years and females of childbearing age, and males 15 years and older and females beyond childbearing age. The maps were distributed to, and a behavioral intervention program developed for, the six GLIFWC member tribes in Wisconsin as well as member tribes in Minnesota and the 1842 ceded territory of Michigan. Tribal fish harvesters, tribal health care providers, women of childbearing age or with young children, tribal leaders, elders, and children were targeted specifically for the behavioral intervention. The efficacy of the behavioral intervention was assessed using surveys of 275 tribal fish harvesters from Wisconsin, 139 tribal harvesters from Michigan and Minnesota, and 156 Wisconsin women of childbearing age. Significant increases in the percentage of survey participants who indicated awareness of advisory maps occurred among Wisconsin harvesters (increase from 60% to 77%), Michigan and Minnesota harvesters (29% to 51%), and women of childbearing age in Wisconsin (40% to 87%). A significant increase in preference for smaller Ogaa occurred among tribal harvesters in Wisconsin (41% to 72%) and tribal harvesters in Michigan and Minnesota (49% to 71%), although not among women of childbearing age. The GLIFWC map-based advisory program did not adversely affect tribal harvest of Ogaa, which increased from 63,000 to 88,000 fish in the three states after the intervention.