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41.
于宏威 《石家庄铁道学院学报(社会科学版)》2014,(3):90-94,108
考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素,采用在“四阶段法”运量预测基础上改进而成的“三阶段法”进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测,然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担,最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例,采用“三阶段法”预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。 相似文献
42.
Eunju Hwang 《Statistics》2017,51(4):844-861
This paper studies the stationary bootstrap applicability for realized covariations of high frequency asynchronous financial data. The stationary bootstrap method, which is characterized by a block-bootstrap with random block length, is applied to estimate the integrated covariations. The bootstrap realized covariance, bootstrap realized regression coefficient and bootstrap realized correlation coefficient are proposed, and the validity of the stationary bootstrapping for them is established both for large sample and for finite sample. Consistencies of bootstrap distributions are established, which provide us valid stationary bootstrap confidence intervals. The bootstrap confidence intervals do not require a consistent estimator of a nuisance parameter arising from nonsynchronous unequally spaced sampling while those based on a normal asymptotic theory require a consistent estimator. A Monte-Carlo comparison reveals that the proposed stationary bootstrap confidence intervals have better coverage probabilities than those based on normal approximation. 相似文献
43.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(2):273-289
The weighted kappa coefficient of a binary diagnostic test is a measure of the beyond-chance agreement between the diagnostic test and the gold standard, and is a measure that allows us to assess and compare the performance of binary diagnostic tests. In the presence of partial disease verification, the comparison of the weighted kappa coefficients of two or more binary diagnostic tests cannot be carried out ignoring the individuals with an unknown disease status, since the estimators obtained would be affected by verification bias. In this article, we propose a global hypothesis test based on the chi-square distribution to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients when in the presence of partial disease verification the missing data mechanism is ignorable. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the type I error and the power of the global hypothesis test. The results have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary disease. 相似文献
44.
Mixed-Weibull distribution has been used to model a wide range of failure data sets, and in many practical situations the number of components in a mixture model is unknown. Thus, the parameter estimation of a mixed-Weibull distribution is considered and the important issue of how to determine the number of components is discussed. Two approaches are proposed to solve this problem. One is the method of moments and the other is a regularization type of fuzzy clustering algorithm. Finally, numerical examples and two real data sets are given to illustrate the features of the proposed approaches. 相似文献
45.
To enhance modeling flexibility, the authors propose a nonparametric hazard regression model, for which the ordinary and weighted least squares estimation and inference procedures are studied. The proposed model does not assume any parametric specifications on the covariate effects, which is suitable for exploring the nonlinear interactions between covariates, time and some exposure variable. The authors propose the local ordinary and weighted least squares estimators for the varying‐coefficient functions and establish the corresponding asymptotic normality properties. Simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite‐sample performance of the new methods, and a real data example from a recent breast cancer study is used as an illustration. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 659–674; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada 相似文献
46.
We introduce a new approach to hospital-acquired disease risk assessment from public health databases. In a spirit similar to actuarial risk theory, we define an adjustment coefficient that can quantify the risk associated with a hospital department, allowing comparisons of similar departments. The adjustment coefficient characterizes the tail of the distribution of the total patient length of stay in a department before the first disease event occurs. We show that this coefficient is the solution of a Lundberg-like equation, and we provide a nonparametric estimation procedure for this measure, based on a Cramér-Lundberg approximation for the tail of the distribution. Using simulations, we provide evidence of the robustness of the approximation to various individual risk models. In addition, we illustrate the relevance of this approach by evaluating the risk associated with a standard patient safety indicator in 20 hospitals of southeastern France. 相似文献
47.
M. Safiul Haq 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(9):857-866
The location-scale model with equi-correlated responses is discussed. The structure of the location-scale model is utilised to genera-te the prediction distribution of a future response and that of a set of future responses. The method avoids the integration procedures usually involved in derivation of prediction distributions and yields results same as those obtained by the Bayes method with the vague prior distribution* Finally the re-suits have been specialised to cover the case of the normal intra-class model. 相似文献
48.
ABSTRACTOn the basis of Csiszar's φ-divergence discrimination information, we propose a measure of discrepancy between equilibriums associated with two distributions. Proving that a distribution can be characterized by associated equilibrium distribution, a Renyi distance of the equilibrium distributions is constructed that made us to propose an EDF-based goodness-of-fit test for exponential distribution. For comparing the performance of the proposed test, some well-known EDF-based tests and some entropy-based tests are considered. Based on the simulation results, the proposed test has better powers than those of competing entropy-based tests for the alternatives with decreasing hazard rate function. The use of the proposed test is evaluated in an illustrative example. 相似文献
49.
Omondi-Odhiambo 《Population studies》2013,67(1):29-40
At the beginning of the 1930's Sweden had one of the lowest reproduction rates in Europe, and a decline in population was regarded as imminent. Since then, however, developments have shown a different trend and the natural increase has become higher, the fears about a decrease in population thus being considerably lessened or entirely removed. 相似文献
50.
This paper considers the maximum and minimum of a pair of log-normal variables with equal mean. It shows that either order statistic has a smaller coefficient of variation than the two original log-normal variables provided the latter are of equal variance. When the variances are unequal, as the variance ratio increases, the minimum (maximum), has a smaller coefficient of variation if the correlation coefficient of the log-normal variables is small (small) and the variances are large (small). 相似文献