脚气本义与腺鼠疫史话

晋唐“风毒脚气”是与鼠疫有关的急症。19~20世纪之交的鼠疫流行与同期发现的beriber或Vitamin B1缺乏病,经有关学术团体“帝国医疗”(impirial medicine)、“殖民地医学”(colonial medicine)的误导而指鹿为马,将其误释为营养不良的慢性病。我们依此为中医史、疫病流行史、中医灸刺法起源和中医理论的渊源找到了新的切入点,也为研究东西方医学交流和近代中日鼠疫流行史提供了新的佐证。     

Ecological Bias: Use of Maximum-Entropy Approximations

The focus of geographical studies in epidemiology has recently moved towards looking for effects of exposures based on data taken at local levels of aggregation (i.e. small areas). This paper investigates how regression coefficients measuring covariate effects at the point level are modified under aggregation. Changing the level of aggregation can lead to completely different conclusions about exposure–effect relationships, a phenomenon often referred to as ecological bias. With partial knowledge of the within‐area distribution of the exposure variable, the notion of maximum entropy can be used to approximate that part of the distribution that is unknown. From the approximation, an expression for the ecological bias is obtained; simulations and an example show that the maximum‐entropy approximation is often better than other commonly used approximations.     

ABSTRACTS OF The 2nd Asian ISSAM Meeting on the Aging Male Taipei,Taiwan March 6–9, 2003

Background.?It is of interest to understand whether impaired physical function is associated with health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL). We examined upper and lower body physical function and its relationship with two domains of HRQOL among men.

Methods.?We conducted a population-based observational study of musculoskeletal health among Boston, MA residents, the Boston Area Community Health/Bone Survey. Participants were 1219 randomly-selected Black, Hispanic, and White males (30–79 years). Upper body function was measured using hand grip strength, while lower body function was measured by combining a timed walk and a chair stand test. HRQOL was measured using the physical (PCS-12) and mental health (MCS-12) component scores of the SF-12. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate the association between poor function and HRQOL.

Results.?There was a significant association of poor upper body physical function with the MCS-12 (β coefficient:??4.12, p?=?0.003) but not the PCS-12 (β coefficient: 0.79, p?=?0.30) compared to those without poor function. Those with poor lower body physical function had significantly lower PCS-12 scores (β:??2.95, p?=?0.007), compared to those without poor function, but an association was not observed for MCS-12 scores.

Conclusions.?Domains of physical function were not consistently related to domains of HRQOL.     

Hierarchical Bayesian bivariate disease mapping: analysis of children and adults asthma visits to hospital

In spatial epidemiology, detecting areas with high ratio of disease is important as it may lead to identifying risk factors associated with disease. This in turn may lead to further epidemiological investigations into the nature of disease. Disease mapping studies have been widely performed with considering only one disease in the estimated models. Simultaneous modelling of different diseases can also be a valuable tool both from the epidemiological and also from the statistical point of view. In particular, when we have several measurements recorded at each spatial location, one can consider multivariate models in order to handle the dependence among the multivariate components and the spatial dependence between locations. In this paper, spatial models that use multivariate conditionally autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension are considered. We study the patterns of incidence ratios and identify areas with consistently high ratio estimates as areas for further investigation. A hierarchical Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is employed to simultaneously examine spatial trends of asthma visits by children and adults to hospital in the province of Manitoba, Canada, during 2000–2010.     

专业课教师素质与教学质量

在高等学校推行教学评估,全面提高教学质量的社会大背景下,全方位提高专业教师的素质,充分激发学生学习热情,提高教育质量是我们目前急需解决的课题。本文结合植物保护专业的培养目标,阐述了植物病害流行学课教师应具备的素质以及植物保护专业提高教学质量的方法与途径。     

Bayesian estimation of logistic regression with misclassified covariates and response

Measurement error is a commonly addressed problem in psychometrics and the behavioral sciences, particularly where gold standard data either does not exist or are too expensive. The Bayesian approach can be utilized to adjust for the bias that results from measurement error in tests. Bayesian methods offer other practical advantages for the analysis of epidemiological data including the possibility of incorporating relevant prior scientific information and the ability to make inferences that do not rely on large sample assumptions. In this paper we consider a logistic regression model where both the response and a binary covariate are subject to misclassification. We assume both a continuous measure and a binary diagnostic test are available for the response variable but no gold standard test is assumed available. We consider a fully Bayesian analysis that affords such adjustments, accounting for the sources of error and correcting estimates of the regression parameters. Based on the results from our example and simulations, the models that account for misclassification produce more statistically significant results, than the models that ignore misclassification. A real data example on math disorders is considered.     

Statistical issues in epidemiologic studies of the health effects of ambient acid aerosols

Although the ecologic effects of acid rain have been widely reported, relatively little is known about the effects of acidic air pollution on human health. Some epidemiologic and animal studies suggest, however, that acidity is an important determinant of the respiratory health effects of aerosols. This paper reviews some of that evidence and discusses its implications for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies. We contrast two types of exposure patterns: peak exposures associated with air pollution episodes, and chronic exposures resulting from persistently high levels of air pollutants. Recent work on the analysis of repeated categorical outcome variables provides new methods for the analysis of episode studies. Studies of long-term exposure require comparisons among population groups, and these comparisons can be subject to the design effects characteristic of multistage sample surveys. We examine the implications of these design effects for epidemiologic studies. Finally, the paper discusses the measurement errors induced by the use of outdoor measurements to quantify personal exposure to air pollutants. Recent work on methods for errors-in-variables problems may aid in assessing the effects of such errors on conventional analyses of air-pollution studies.     

美沙酮维持治疗者的社会网络特征与维持状况的研究

目的：了解受艾滋病和社会歧视双重威胁的美沙酮维持治疗者的社会网络的构成、特征．并探讨其与维持状况之间的关系。方法：以方便抽样方式获得样本并以结构式访问收集资料，对进入无锡市美沙酮维持治疗门诊的277名吸毒者进行社会流行病学调查；采用SPSS与质性研究方法进行分析。结果：该人群普遍感到社会歧视的存在，其社会交往和社会支持网络仅限于父母、家人、朋友等非正式群体；与社会间互动的缺失以及吸毒者的标签化导致社会支持网络中的正式群体在其治疗、维持及社会救助中未起到主要作用。结论：美沙酮维持治疗者社会网络的特征将影响维持治疗的效果．加强该人群与正式社会网络的互动对恢复其家庭和社会功能具有重要意义。     

Two-Patch Transmission of Tuberculosis

For a two-patch transmission of tuberculosis (TB), the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction rate ?₀ are computed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction rate is less than one. The model can have one or more endemic equilibria. The increased progression rate from latent to active TB in one population may play a significant role in the rising prevalence of TB in the other population. The increased migration from the first to the second population increases the prevalence level of TB in the second population and decreases the TB prevalence in the first population.     

Aging male's symptoms in a Southern Brazil population: lifestyle effects after the age of 40

Background.?The interest of epidemiological research about male's aging increased in recent years along with the need to evaluate health-related quality of life. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to identify the prevalence of aging male's symptoms (AMS) and factors associated to this condition.

Methods.?The study included 421 men aged 40 years or older, living in the urban area of Pelotas, Southern Brazil. The questionnaire covered sociodemographic, behavioral, and health variables, and to verify the aging male's symptoms, the AMS Scale was used.

Results.?Moderate/severe male's symptoms was considered positive (AMS scores equal or above 37 points) in 20% of men (95% CI 16.1; 24.3). After controlling for confounders, the AMS was significantly associated with aging, self-perceived health status and smoking. The symptoms were more severe among physically inactive men.

Conclusions.?Our findings support the necessity to maintain healthy behaviors like not smoking and regular physical activity since such changeable behaviors could reduce the AMS acceleration and increase life quality and expectancy.