Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

《一报还一报》的伦理混乱与秩序重构中的悲喜命运转向

莎士比亚《一报还一报》一剧以克劳狄奥与朱丽叶的婚前私通为主要伦理线,展示了维也纳法治下个人私通和公共淫乱两类人的跌宕命运,着重探讨了维也纳城的伦理混乱,以及在主政者的伦理秩序重构中个人私通者由悲而喜和公共淫乱者由喜而悲的命运转向,旨在指出在西方前现代社会中,对基督教伦理规范的认同与否决定着个人的命运转向。     

李杭育寻根小说的文化认同

李杭育是新时期寻根小说的代表作家之一,其"葛川江系列小说"对民族文化中的下述正面因子进行了呈现并给予了赞许、认同的价值立场:搏击凶险、抗争自然、捍卫生命并由此喷薄强力、意志力的生存品格,执拗、倔强、坚韧的生命特质,血气、野性、自由自在、率真的生命形式,重情义、守孝道、讲仁爱、善良的伦理操守。     

历史人物伦理思想的指认依据--以梁漱溟为例

堪称伦理思想者，当有指认依据在。以梁漱溟为例，提出伦理思想的三个指认依据：一是基本稳定的形上基础；二是相对系统的伦理主张；三是较为广泛的实际影响。只有坚持论从史出，我们才有可能靠近历史人物伦理思想的历史真实和价值真实。     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

网红直播带货的伦理审视

随着网络直播的兴起和网红经济的发展,"网红直播带货"成为一种新的重要营销方式,它不仅能满足人们个性化的物质需求,而且能满足个体的社交化情感诉求,但其中所潜藏的诚信缺失和个体消费成瘾等伦理失范问题较为突出。加强个人义利观教育、完善社会诚信监督机制,丰盈个体精神生活、净化社会消费风气,则是解决这些伦理问题的可行性路径。     

我国学前教育地方立法研究

学前教育地方立法是我国学前教育立法体系的有机组成部分，截至2020 年1 月，我国现行有效的学前教育地方性法规 规章共61 部，呈现出立法时间跨度大，立法主体覆盖面广，立法模式体例多样等特征。地方立法一定程度上规范着地方学前 教育的有序开展，但也存在部分省市立法机关对当地学前教育立法关注度不高、部分立法难以满足当前学前教育发展需求、表 达不规范、可操作性欠佳、缺乏地方特色以及冲突与越位等问题。对此，应从科学确定学前教育地方立法内容、建立地方性法 律适时更新制度、健全学前教育地方立法调研制度、加强地方立法专业化制度建设等方面予以优化。     

Completing the Circuit: Routine,Reflection, and Ethical Consumption

Efforts to explain why some people incorporate ethical concerns into everyday shopping for food and household goods, while many do not, have so far left significant variation in “ethical consumption” unexplained. Seeking to move beyond explanations that rely mainly on differences in consumers' social class, gender, and political engagement, I draw on concepts associated with “practice theory” to argue that ethical consumption is closely tied to people's willingness and ability to spend time, while shopping, on distinct activities associated with breaking old routines and establishing new ones. The central insight of practice theory is that most consumption is the product of unconscious routine. And it is precisely because consciously departing from routine is, according to my study, a fundamentally time‐consuming process, that lack of time emerges as a crucial obstacle to translating abstract ethical concerns into concrete action as a consumer.     

数字化生存的道德风险与信息崇拜的伦理考辨

当代人尤其是青年人面临诸多现实世界中自我难以解决的矛盾和困惑时,期许能在电子＂伊甸园＂中找回自我价值和精神皈依。然而,虚拟空间并非想象中的天堂,类似＂面具＂的交流形式遮蔽着许多本真的存在,消解了现实世界的核心价值;游离在虚拟和现实之间的自我与社会脱离;对网络的过渡依赖性导致人格的异化;方向感的迷茫和自我定位的偏差,使得价值追求从崇高滑向流俗甚至恶俗。数字化生存方式正颠覆着传统生活方式和现实生活世界的诸多价值标准,而信息崇拜的推波助澜,更使人们产生了一种莫名的幸福被剥夺的感觉。     

Ethical living: relinking ethics and consumption through care in Chile and Brazil

Mainstream conceptualizations of ‘ethical consumption’ equate the notion with conscious, individual, market‐mediated choices motivated by ethical or political aims that transcend ordinary concerns. Drawing on recent sociology and anthropology of consumption literature on the links between ordinary ethics and ethical consumption, this article discusses some of the limitations of this conceptualization. Using data from 32 focus groups conducted in Chile and Brazil, we propose a conceptualization of ethical consumption that does not centre on individual, market‐mediated choices but understands it at the level of practical outcomes, which we refer to as different forms of ‘ethical living’. To do that, we argue, we need to depart from the deontological understanding of ethics that underpins mainstream approaches to ethical consumption and adopt a more consequentialist view focusing on ethical outcomes. We develop these points through describing one particular ordinary moral regime that seemed to be predominant in participants’ accounts of ethics and consumption in both Chile and Brazil: one that links consumption and ethics through care. We show that the moral regime of care leads to ‘ethical outcomes’, such as energy saving or limiting overconsumption, yet contrary to the mainstream view of ethical consumption emphasizing politicized choice expressed through markets, these result from following ordinary ethics, often through routines of practices.