A general long-term aging model with different underlying activation mechanisms: Modeling,Bayesian estimation,and case influence diagnostics

In this paper we propose a general cure rate aging model. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms which lead to the event of interest. The number of competing causes of the event of interest is assumed to follow a logarithmic distribution. The model is parameterized in terms of the cured fraction which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis for the proposed model. Moreover, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given, as well as case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the ψ-divergence, which has several divergence measures as particular cases, such as the Kullback–Leibler (K-L), J-distance, L₁ norm, and χ²-square divergence measures. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real malignant melanoma data.     

Internet risks and expert views: a case study of the insider perspectives of youth workers in Hong Kong

This study collects and analyses the viewpoints of front-line youth workers regarding the notion of ‘Internet risks’. Previous studies have examined and discussed various dangers of the Internet. Parental, school, and governmental interventions are often called for by those concerned. The implicit assumption is that these are the people who possess the expertise to tackle the problems at hand. Through participation in three forums focusing on ‘Internet risks’, and in-depth interviews with 10 such ‘experts’ in Hong Kong, the study examines if this is a valid assumption. It finds that experts perceive Internet risks rather differently. In addition to the more conventional views about content, contact and conduct risks, our interviewees are aware that a new order is quickly emerging in the new media environment. Despite being considered as ‘experts’, they do not necessarily know how to tackle the so-called ‘youth-at-risk’. Rather, they are exploring how they would capitalize on the opportunities offered by the developments. The key findings highlight the need to critically review the notion of ‘Internet risks’. As with other risk frameworks, the ultimate aim is to develop intervention programmes. In this regard, risks are often treated as concrete problems that can be solved. Youth experts, however, find that the changing scope, speed and persistence of communication in today's information society present the biggest challenge in youth work. The existing framework of risks was unable to describe and account for such risks. In response, Internet risk has to be reconceptualized so that more updated, relevant and imaginative intervention can be introduced.     

抗争、民主与治理:全球治理下的抗争政治研究

随着20世纪60年代西方社会运动的兴起,西方国家的国内政治由此发展出有别于常规制度、正式政治的独特政治形态——抗争政治。诸多的理论认为,这一政治形态对其国内政治的民主和治理都具有积极的促进作用。本文通过对抗争政治历程的研究,指出:一方面,全球化及反全球化运动、全球风险社会都使得全球政治和治理发生大转型,由此引发全球社会运动,抗争从国内走向国际;而另一方面,抗争功能也具有局限性。同时认为,国内和国际层面上的抗争政治,关注全球抗争与民主、治理的关系,呈现出与常规政治不同的性质、特点和功能,具有重大的理论和实践价值。     

Ratio-Scale Measurement with Intransitivity or Incompleteness: The Homogeneous Case

In the homogeneous case of one-dimensional objects, we show that any relation that is positive and homothetic can be represented by a ratio-scale and a unique and constant biasing factor. This factor may favor or disfavor the preference for an object over another. In the first case, preferences are complete but not transitive and an object may be preferred even when its value is lower. In the second case, preferences are asymmetric and transitive but not negatively transitive and it may not be sufficient for an object to have a greater value to be preferred. In this manner, the biasing factor reflects the extent to which preferences may depart from a maximization process.     

Conjuncture and cultural reproduction in the process of embedding: social work practice in the context of government purchase of services in China

This paper focuses on the Chinese government’s policy of purchasing social services and discusses how relevant organisations provide social work and develop it within local socio-political and cultural contexts. An ethnographic research method was adopted for the study by the first author while participating in social work development in Q City. We argue that the policy of purchasing social services succeeded in achieving “embedded development” but also created a “conjuncture structure” in cultural reproduction. However, due toprofessional social workers in China have, in practice, passively responded to the conjuncture there has been a failure to reproduce professional values of social work in the Chinese cultural context. Therefore, further development of social work in China needs to strengthen cultural reflection in practical actions, focus on the exploration of cultural connections between social work practice and local communities, and enhance the cultural capacity of social workers in the local cultural context.     

论责任意识——我国警察文化的伦理基础

我国警察文化是社会主流文化与警察职业生活过程各种要素相互影响并长期积淀的结果,它有不同于社会其他亚文化的伦理诉求。能使警察将此伦理诉求转化为现实职业行为的精神力量,便是警察的责任意识。在警察文化的发展过程中,警察责任意识与警察文化的职业价值观核心问题、警察制度文化,以及警察文学艺术的创作与演绎相互作用、相互影响,从而推动警察文化进一步发展。     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

风险刑法理论研究中的错位与检讨

社会风险不能等同于刑法危险,但二者存在动态交叉关系,社会风险可以通过刑事政策转变为刑法中的危险。风险刑法首先是现代刑法应对风险过程中自觉的结果,是现代刑法体系的同质组成部分。从贝克划分社会形态的时间考虑,我国早已进入风险社会,且是全面而非局部风险社会。我国社会主要矛盾的转变使我国社会风险在质上表现为严重危害公共安全和公共利益,在量上表现为风险的相对增多,从刑法的应对上来看,似乎只能选择刑法提前介入。风险刑法理论的中国展开应该从实然和应然两个层面出发,前者旨在突出风险刑法的教义学研究,后者需要从社会风险自身的特点出发,有针对性地调整刑法体系,以期防控风险、创造安全。     

基于DEA理论的ANP/BOCR方案评价值综合集成新方法

网络分析法(ANP)是一种能够有效处理复杂决策问题的多准则决策方法。然而现有ANP文献在对收益、机会、成本、风险(统称为BOCR)评价值综合集成时会因评价值之间的不匹配而可能得出错误的方案排序结果和绩效表示。为克服上述缺陷,本文基于数据包络分析理论提出一种新的针对ANP/BOCR评价值的综合集成方法,使用摆幅置权区间估计方式反映出了决策者在判断BOCR相对权重时所面临的不精确性和模糊性。实例验证结果表明,所提方法对BOCR评价值的处理更符合实际情况。     

Morality and Nuclear Energy: Perceptions of Risks and Benefits,Personal Norms,and Willingness to Take Action Related to Nuclear Energy

We examined factors underlying people's willingness to take action in favor of or against nuclear energy from a moral perspective. We conducted a questionnaire study among a sample of the Dutch population (N = 123). As expected, perceptions of risks and benefits were related to personal norms (PN), that is, feelings of moral obligation toward taking action in favor of or against nuclear energy. In turn, PN predicted willingness to take action. Furthermore, PN mediated the relationships between perceptions of risk and benefits and willingness to take action. In line with our hypothesis, beliefs about the risks and benefits of nuclear energy were less powerful in explaining PN for supporters compared to PN of opponents. Also, beliefs on risks and benefits and PN explained significantly more variance in willingness to take action of opponents than of supporters. Our results suggest that a moral framework is useful to explain willingness to take action in favor of and against nuclear energy, and that people are more likely to protest in favor of or against nuclear energy when PN are strong.