略论传统伦理道德的发展规律和历史命运-传统伦理道德思想论纲之一

中华民族在血缘宗亲的群体关系中,高度地发挥着人的本性,随着孝养的制度化,传统伦理道德思想从其原生期、形成期逐渐走入成熟期,发展出以三纲五常为主体的政治性伦理思想和以仁义说为核心的品格性伦理思想.前者借专制集权主义而大行其道,渐趋极端,压制着后者,扭曲着人性.后者顽强地抗争,熔铸着民族的精神,培养着"民族的脊梁".二者既对立又统一,既冲突又融合,共同构成传统伦理道德思想.这个矛盾的统一体循其矛盾规律而发展,从不中断,绝不消亡,在经过漫长的成熟期的五个阶段后,必然迈入自己的高级期.     

人对自然的伦理关系何以可能

人对自然是否有伦理关系?这一提问内蕴着三个方面的问题一是人对自然是否可能有伦理关系?二是人对自然具有怎样的伦理关系?三是人对自然是否应该有伦理关系?人对自然的确具有伦理思维与伦理实践的能力,但其伦理关系的内容应是最有利于人类利益的生态平衡规律.它与人与人之间的伦理关系既有联系又有区别.     

Selection of resilient supply portfolio under disruption risks

This paper deals with the optimal selection and protection of part suppliers and order quantity allocation in a supply chain with disruption risks. The protection decisions include the selection of suppliers to be protected against disruptions and the allocation of emergency inventory of parts to be pre-positioned at the protected suppliers. The decision maker needs to decide which supplier to select for parts delivery and how to allocate orders quantity among the selected suppliers, and which of the selected suppliers to protect against disruptions and how to allocate emergency inventory among the protected suppliers. The problem objective is to achieve a minimum cost of suppliers protection, emergency inventory pre-positioning, parts ordering, purchasing, transportation and shortage and to mitigate the impact of disruption risks by minimizing the potential worst-case cost. As a result a resilient supply portfolio is identified with protected suppliers capable of supplying parts in the face of disruption events. A mixed integer programming approach is proposed to determine risk-neutral, risk-averse or mean-risk supply portfolios, with conditional value-at-risk applied to control the risk of worst-case cost. Numerical examples are presented and some computational results are reported.     

Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with competing risks for failure from exponential distribution under Type-II censoring

In reliability analysis, accelerated life-testing allows for gradual increment of stress levels on test units during an experiment. In a special class of accelerated life tests known as step-stress tests, the stress levels increase discretely at pre-fixed time points, and this allows the experimenter to obtain information on the parameters of the lifetime distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. Moreover, when a test unit fails, there are often more than one fatal cause for the failure, such as mechanical or electrical. In this article, we consider the simple step-stress model under Type-II censoring when the lifetime distributions of the different risk factors are independently exponentially distributed. Under this setup, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown mean parameters of the different causes under the assumption of a cumulative exposure model. The exact distributions of the MLEs of the parameters are then derived through the use of conditional moment generating functions. Using these exact distributions as well as the asymptotic distributions and the parametric bootstrap method, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the parameters and assess their performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the methods of inference discussed here with an example.     

我国高等教育大众化的道德原则探寻

高等教育大众化有其自身的价值预设,这种价值预设需要道德原则的引导。伦理作为一种软约束力量,对个人与群体的作用效果显然是不够的,它缺乏强制性。把相对抽象的伦理要求、道德命令具体化为群体成员所必须遵循的一系列可操作的道德规范和道德原则,形成一种伦理制度,它就具有群体性、他律性与强制性的特点。因此,从道德这一维度入手,我们需要重新构建高等教育大众化的伦理基础,这种伦理基础就是以教育公平、教育正义原则为圭臬,以人道主义与共享原则为内容,以个性发展原则为最终目标,这些原则的和谐统一就是高等教育大众化的伦理品质。     

《周易》的人格类型与伦理价值导向

《周易》提出了一系列的人格类型，其人格类型基本上划分为二大类一类是肯定型的人格类型，即君子一类；一类是否定型的有待教化的人格类型，即小人一类。“君子”是《周易》所追求的理想人格，而“小人”则是君子所要教化的对象。     

论寿险经营风险的防范和控制

寿险经营 ,实质上是一种负债经营 ,而且由于寿险风险具有隐藏性、累积性、爆发性和危害性的特点 ,一旦爆发 ,就可能造成严重的社会后果 ,这就需要寿险公司及其监管机构及早识别寿险经营中存在的风险 ,进行防范和控制 ,以维持寿险经营的稳定。本文从防范和控制寿险经营风险的必要性出发 ,分析了寿险经营中存在的各种风险 ,尝试运用财务分析法中的各种指标测试来识别这些风险 ,提出了监管机构、寿险公司和自律组织在寿险经营风险防范和控制中应采取的各种措施。     

重读“孝悌为仁之本”

本文试从“人我”关系亦即我与他人或他者的关系这一角度 ,重读孔子和儒家传统有关孝的思想 ,以期重新接近这一观念所蕴含的深刻伦理意义。孝这一观念所强调的是一个作为能够承担责任的伦理主体的我对他人的无可推卸的伦理责任。虽然从表面上看孝仅仅规定我与作为父母的这一特殊他人的特殊关系 ,但是 ,这是我与“第一”他人所发生的“第一”关系。作为我的第一他人的父母在某种意义上已经是一切他人的“原型”,而我与父母的伦理关系已经是我与其他一切人的伦理关系的“原型”。本文从分析孔子所说的敬开始 ,孔子对孝中之敬的强调表明 ,孝远非某种自然感情 ;敬作为我对他者之敬蕴含着他者的某种“超越”性和我作为我的“主体”性 ,一种“我而为他”的主体性。最后 ,对作为孝的构成部分的“事死如事生”亦即为父母居丧守孝以及祭祀的意义进行了分析     

论鲁迅的儿童观

鲁迅站在人类本位的高度认为父子关系是一种自然的伦理关系 ,是平等的。父母对子女负有不可推卸的责任。在教育儿童方面 ,他也有独到的见解。这些见解在今天仍然具有很大的启发和教育作用