民事司法鉴定性质的证据法理分析

在德国、日本及我国台湾地区的民事证据理论上，将鉴定人视为证据方法存在不妥之处。鉴定本质上是法官在鉴定人之辅助下，以被鉴定之物为证据方法、原则上须依当事人申请而启动的证据调查之职权行为。鉴定结论为证据资料。我国学界对司法鉴定之性质的界定有欠准确，因而导致民事司法鉴定外延泛化、混同鉴定之独立性与中立性、对鉴定结论之性质认识错误以及忽视鉴定实施过程中对当事人的程序权利保障等缺陷。     

律师伪证罪的困境与出路

《刑法》第306条有关律师伪证罪的规定一直面临着悖逆民心的困境，但其原因并非实体内容不公正，而是欠缺程序上的合理限制，由此导致它沦为检察机关实施职业报复的工具。将律师纪律处分或行政处罚程序作为刑事诉讼程序的程序性前提，把取消会员资格的行业处分或吊销律师职业证书的行政处罚作为刑事诉讼的实体性前提，并限制刑事侦查的调查范围，可以合理地限制检察机关的偏见和恣意，带领该规定走出当前的困境。     

On bias reduction estimators of skew-normal and skew-t distributions

A particular concerns of researchers in statistical inference is bias in parameters estimation. Maximum likelihood estimators are often biased and for small sample size, the first order bias of them can be large and so it may influence the efficiency of the estimator. There are different methods for reduction of this bias. In this paper, we proposed a modified maximum likelihood estimator for the shape parameter of two popular skew distributions, namely skew-normal and skew-t, by offering a new method. We show that this estimator has lower asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood estimator and is more efficient than those based on the existing methods.     

An improved alternative estimation procedure for current population mean in presence of positively and negatively correlated auxiliary variables in two-occasion rotation patterns

Abstract

The present study confirms the influential role of a positively and a negatively correlated auxiliary variables in enhancing the precision of estimates of current population mean in two occasion rotation (successive) sampling. Exponential-type estimators of current population mean have been proposed for three different situations: (i) the information on a positively correlated auxiliary variable is readily available on both occasions (ii) the information on a negatively correlated auxiliary variable is readily available on both occasions and (iii) the information on both positively and negatively correlated auxiliary variables are readily available on both the occasions. The characteristics of the proposed estimators have been explored and their efficacious performances are compared with the natural and recent contemporary estimators. Optimum replacement strategies of the proposed estimation procedures have been formulated. Simulation and empirical studies are carried out to justify the proposition of the proposed estimators and appropriate recommendations have been put forward to the survey practitioners.     

损失厌恶、后悔厌恶与沉没成本效应的关联性分析

以往研究认为沉没成本效应的产生与损失厌恶和后悔厌恶相关,但对其相互关系的探讨较少考虑货币性沉没成本和非货币性沉没成本的不同影响.文章选取证券监管者和证券市场投资者作为被试对象,通过有情境因素的调查问卷对损失厌恶、后悔厌恶与沉没成本效应之间的关联性进行验证.实证结果发现,与证券市场投资者相比,证券监管者的损失厌恶倾向要显著更低,而二者的后悔厌恶和沉没成本效应则无显著差异;证券监管者的数据结果表明,后悔厌恶与沉没成本效应之间存在显著的相关性,而损失厌恶与沉没成本效应之间不存在显著的相关性;相比之下,证券市场投资者的数据结果则表明,损失厌恶与沉没成本之间存在显著的相关性,而后悔厌恶与沉没成本之间则不存在显著的相关性.     

证券分析师性别、盈余预测偏差与纠偏能力

证券分析师个人特征是其能力的重要表征.文章选取2007-2014年我国资本市场相关数据,研究了证券分析师的性别对盈余预测偏差的影响,以及盈余预测偏差的时间序列特征,实证结果显示:第一,整体上男性分析师的盈余预测偏差大于女性分析师;第二,男性分析师对于盈余预测偏差的纠正能力高于女性分析师;第三,随着对公司跟踪时间的增加,男性分析师的盈余预测偏差下降速度更快.研究结果说明,对于分析师跟踪时间较短的公司,女性分析师的盈余预测偏差较小,而对于受分析师长期跟踪的公司,男性分析师的盈余预测结果更准确.研究结论对投资者依据分析师性别判定其盈利预测准确性具有重要意义.     

论案件事实信息的法律属性

诉讼证据中蕴涵的案件事实信息的收集、运用、识别和认定都应当符合法律规定的原则和程序。诉讼中要突出案件事实信息的法律属性,必须强化民事诉讼中的原被告双方或者刑事诉讼中的控辩双方的具有对抗性的举证和质证、分析和反驳,同时,法官应着重审查原被告或控辩双方举示的证据是否符合法律规定的条件,并对诉讼证据中蕴涵或留存的案件事实信息是否真实,以及这些案件事实信息是否就是证据事实,这些证据事实是否能够足以证明(即恢复或还原)案件事实,作为定案的根据等进行识别和认定。     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

The Limits of Black Politics in the Post–Civil Rights Era

Pluralist theorists have long contended that to exercise power and influence in the American political system, blacks should come together like any other organized interest group, form coalitions with other like-minded people (white liberals), and advocate for policy reforms. Beginning during the “Black Power” era, the goal of putting black faces in high places to help address black concerns became a driving force in black politics. The deteriorating social and economic status of many in the black community, however, has not been prevented by either the political incorporation of more than 11,000 black elected officials or even the election of the nation’s first black president. This article will show how the inherent limitations of the pluralist interest-group strategy and a growing white backlash fueled by an awareness of changing demographics in the country has spawned an economic and political crisis in black America.