Conditional VAR and Expected Shortfall: A New Functional Approach

We estimate two well-known risk measures, the value-at-risk (VAR) and the expected shortfall, conditionally to a functional variable (i.e., a random variable valued in some semi(pseudo)-metric space). We use nonparametric kernel estimation for constructing estimators of these quantities, under general dependence conditions. Theoretical properties are stated whereas practical aspects are illustrated on simulated data: nonlinear functional and GARCH(1,1) models. Some ideas on bandwidth selection using bootstrap are introduced. Finally, an empirical example is given through data of the S&P 500 time series.     

Factor screening in nonregular two-level designs based on projection-based variable selection

In this paper, we focus on the problem of factor screening in nonregular two-level designs through gradually reducing the number of possible sets of active factors. We are particularly concerned with situations when three or four factors are active. Our proposed method works through examining fits of projection models, where variable selection techniques are used to reduce the number of terms. To examine the reliability of the methods in combination with such techniques, a panel of models consisting of three or four active factors with data generated from the 12-run and the 20-run Plackett–Burman (PB) design is used. The dependence of the procedure on the amount of noise, the number of active factors and the number of experimental factors is also investigated. For designs with few runs such as the 12-run PB design, variable selection should be done with care and default procedures in computer software may not be reliable to which we suggest improvements. A real example is included to show how we propose factor screening can be done in practice.     

本科实验教学模块建设与运行相关问题探讨

介绍了《材料性能实验教学模块》的概况及其总体规划思路,回顾了其建设与运行情况,以《材料性能实验教学模块》为实例,从实践和理论2个方面对本科实验教学模块建设、运行等相关问题进行了探讨,并总结了近年来的教学实践经验。     

论案件事实信息的法律属性

诉讼证据中蕴涵的案件事实信息的收集、运用、识别和认定都应当符合法律规定的原则和程序。诉讼中要突出案件事实信息的法律属性,必须强化民事诉讼中的原被告双方或者刑事诉讼中的控辩双方的具有对抗性的举证和质证、分析和反驳,同时,法官应着重审查原被告或控辩双方举示的证据是否符合法律规定的条件,并对诉讼证据中蕴涵或留存的案件事实信息是否真实,以及这些案件事实信息是否就是证据事实,这些证据事实是否能够足以证明(即恢复或还原)案件事实,作为定案的根据等进行识别和认定。     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

Bioecological Implications of Narrative Exposure Therapy in Low‐Resource Settings: Individual,Family, Community,and Socio‐Political Contexts

Traumatic stress can have detrimental effects on individuals, families, and communities. Narrative exposure therapy (NET) is an evidence‐based intervention for decreasing individuals’ post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and has been tested in some of the most challenging contexts, such as in post‐conflict refugee camps. Although the focus of NET is on reducing individual PTSD symptoms, the impact of NET can be seen beyond the individual level. The purpose of this paper is to examine some of the ecological implications of using NET with trauma‐affected populations in low‐resource settings. We describe the implications of NET at the family, community, and sociopolitical levels using several case examples. Finally, we outline limitations and future directions for improving the delivery of NET in settings with limited resources.     

反贪侦查中非法证据排除规则的现实应对

新刑事诉讼法在总结实践经验的基础上进一步规范和完善了我国非法证据排除规则。该规则的确立和应用将对反贪侦查工作带来巨大的影响和挑战,也将对办案人员的素质提出更高的要求。要保障反贪侦查工作依法、持续、健康开展,就必须对非法证据排除规则进行理智辩证的对待、认真细致的研究和积极主动的应对。以章国锡受贿案为透视,提出了在反贪侦查工作中,严格执行收集证据的禁止性规定,全面落实全程同步录音录像制度,提高侦查人员出庭作证的应对能力,建立非法证据排除的预警机制和做好证据的事后补正等应对非法证据排除规则之对策。     

刑事自由裁量权存在的问题及规制——对法官在证据审查、事实认定、定罪量刑阶段裁量行为的分析

通过对刑事自由裁量权的具体表现进行分析,指出刑事自由裁量权运行中存在的一些问题,进而提出了规制法官刑事自由裁量权的具体内容,即加强司法能力建设,多措并举提高法官素质;明确自由裁量的原则和方法,使其在合理范围内运行;改革判决书制作模式,增加对裁量行为的说理;完善刑事法律及司法解释,实现立法及司法控制;建立健全监督制约机制,实现自律与他律相结合。     

律师执业权利的法律思考

律师的权利,是律师依法独立执业的基本保障。律师只有享有法律赋予的必要的、充分的执业权利,其“保护人权、实现社会正义”的职业使命才有可能实现。尽管我国现有立法中对律师的权利有相应的法律规定,但由于立法规定的简略、笼统或不适当,导致律师的阅卷权、会见权、调查取证权这些重要的权利在适用过程中阻力重重。必须在立法上完善我国律师的阅卷权、会见权、调查取证权,使我国律师在法律上获得充分的权利,以维护律师的执业形象,促进我国民主、法制建设的进程。     

内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响研究

从防范和应对的角度研究内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响,有利于促进企业内部审计制度的发展和完善,提高反倾销会计信息证据效力,为我国企业的国际化战略提供有力支持。以2007-2012年间遭受反倾销诉讼的上市公司的数据为样本,检验了内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响。实证结果显示：内部审计质量越高,企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据越有效力;内部审计质量一定的情况下,内部控制有效的企业,内部审计与内部控制的互动能够提高反倾销会计信息证据效力。