Optimality Of Some Two-Stage Sampling Methods

Two-stage sampling plans in which the estimator is computed from the second sample only, and has a guaranteed precision irrespective of the parameter value, are considered. We prove the following optimality property for existing strategies in binomial and Poisson populations: there exists no other

strategy, of the same form, that guarantees the same precision, without increasing the expected sample size for some parameter valucs. The method of proof is illustrnted by proving a similar result for normal populations     

证据损害理论：潜伏性毒物致害侵权诉讼中的可选择理论

在潜伏性毒物致害侵权诉讼中,由于经历时间久远、证据缺失以及造成损害结果的事实不确定等因素,对诉讼裁判的准确性造成极大困难。不确定性的存在以及后来法庭无法对事实进行裁定,有时是由于当事人的不当行为所致。这些不当行为人才应该对案件事实的不确定性以及相应的致错风险承担责任。是否应该让这些当事人承担这种证据损害的责任、其法律标准应该如何设置以及对于那些遭受证据损害者法律应该给予他们何种救济都是这种特殊侵权诉讼中可选择理论———证据损害理论所要探讨的重大议题。     

以正当程序来审视瑕疵证据的补正和合理解释

正当程序理念是英美法系法律思想、法律传统的体现,是公民个人所享有公平的最低限度标准,也是人类对正义理想的追求。从正当程序角度审视瑕疵证据的补正和合理解释,通过分析我国司法实务中对瑕疵证据的补正和合理解释的适用情形,说明在立法和司法上对正当程序的偏离,进而回归瑕疵证据本身,以后来看其对正当程序的影响。     

A note on nonlinear regression for the autoregressive moving average with non-hd errors

Estimation by nonlinear regression of the parameters for the stationary and invertible autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model with mixing or martingale difference errors is considered. Simple proofs of consistency and asymptotic normality for the nonlinear least squares estimator are given by exploiting results from nonlinear estimation theory and mixing and mixingale theory.     

论刑事证据的法律分类

本文对刑事证据的“种类”、“分类”之称谓进行辨析,认为两者实质含义一致,进而提出采 用“法律上的分类”与“理论上的分类”的观点。作者立足我国刑事证据的立法分类,分析其规定不足, 建议重新分类,特别指出刑事证据分类应注视一、二审的转化问题和与今后将建立的证据规则相衔接 问题。     

The probabilistic analysis of testimony

The probabilistic analysis of testimony is surveyed. The coverage is not comprehensive; attention is focused on several problems of particular interest or complexity. The theory often contains implicit assumptions, and some attempt is made to clarify the role these play. The theory originally arose in an attempt to understand the logic of belief. It was not empirically grounded, however, and later died out in the 19th century when its conclusions became largely self-evident, and its non-empirical background suspect.     

从适用到规范——论民事诉讼中的“策略取证”

民事诉讼中"陷阱取证"这一概念存在较大争议,用"策略取证"将其替代,并对"策略取证"进行严格界定,通过对其源起、概念、可行性及价值诉求作详细的探究,为此概念及相关制度顺利移植到民事诉讼中创造了条件.     

The Statistics of Simulating Chaos

When simulating a dynamical system, the computation is actually of a spatially discretized system, because finite machine arithmetic replaces continuum state space. For chaotic dynamical systems, the discretized simulations often have collapsing effects, to a fixed point or to short cycles. Statistical properties of these phenomena can be modelled with random mappings with an absorbing centre. The model gives results which are very much in line with computational experiments. The effects are discussed with special reference to the family of mappings f (x)=1-|1-2x|,x [0,1],1,<,,<,. Computer experiments show close agreement with predictions of the model.     

刑事诉讼法违法证据排除法则的分析

通过对违法证据排除法则的概念、英美法律中该法则发展状况的分析和论证,提出我国刑事诉讼法也应适用该规则,并应采用既注重内容、又兼顾形式的“部分排除”原则。     

On sources and narratives in historical social science: a realist critique of positivist and postmodernist epistemologies

Critics of the interdisciplinary enterprise of historical sociology commonly contend that the narrational accounts of past social phenomena provided by historians are inadequate to the task of theory-building and testing. In support of this negative assessment, opponents will adduce informational deficiencies in the available data (the standard positivist appraisal of historical evidence), or cite the interpretive anarchy that seemingly prevails at the narrative phase of emplotment (the skeptical, postmodernist contention that historiographic texts 'construct' rather than veridically represent the events they artfully contrive to signify). Both of these lines of criticism are unbalanced, and therefore seriously misleading as regards the epistemic foundations of historical-sociological inquiry. The 'social authenticity' and 'informational density' of historical evidence does allow for veridical reconstructions of the past, while the reflexive interpretive protocols of source criticism and the sociology of knowledge can be deployed to provide warrant for discriminating arbitrations between competing theories and narratives. The various epistemological deformations in the study of human affairs that have been encouraged by the old idiographic-nomothetic polarity - chronic ahistoricism within the social sciences, the atheoretical predilections of much conventional historiography - are rectifiable through the consolidation of a fully integrated sociological history, a unified and inclusive historical social science.