美元、日元、英镑的中长期汇率预测方法研究

文章运用组合预测方法对中长期汇率走势进行分析 ,并根据贝特斯 (Bates)和格朗格 (Granger)提出的组合预测方法 ,对美元兑日元、美元兑英镑的中长期汇率进行了预测 ,提出组合预测为一种较好的方法。     

"祝颂"言语行为的汉英对比

汉英“祝颂”言语行为及“祝颂语”在词汇、句法、语体、语境、话语结构和文化背景等方面均存在共性与差异。实施“祝颂”言语行为时常出现“语用语言失误”和“社交语用失误” ,其根源在于文化差异 ,即英美文化的基督教信仰、个体主义、自我价值和汉文化的贬己尊人等传统观念之间的差异。     

中国创新活动和经济增长的关系——一个基于协整理论的初步研究

内生经济增长理论告诉我们,创新活动作为技术进步的主要来源能够持续推动经济增长。但是中国现阶段经济发展条件下创新对经济增长的推动作用到底有多大,创新活动对于经济增长的影响机制如何,现有的研究并没有给出一个令人信服的答案。本文采用协整理论和误差修正模型研究了经济增长和创新活动之间的关系。研究结果显示,我国创新活动对于经济增长短期内具有显著影响,但其影响程度与长期影响相比还存在着较大差距;从长期看各种创新活动中基础研究能够实现对经济增长更大的推动作用。     

Collapsing the Boundaries? Fatherhood,Organization and Home‐Working

In the modern western world, the discursive construction of fatherhood and everyday fathering practices has been underpinned by the spatial separation of work from home, of public from private. However, increasing numbers of employees are now working from home and a disproportionate number of these are men with young children. This article draws on new empirical research to examine the implications for fathers and for organizations as home‐working disrupts earlier spatial configurations of fatherhood and fathering practices. The article concludes that as the spatial boundaries between home and work collapse, new accommodations between fatherhood/fathering and organization are emerging. However, these are underpinned by a traditional gender division of labour in the household. More broadly, these findings confirm the inadequacy of static distinctions between public and private, showing that while such distinctions are still used to mark space and time, this is relational, contingent and unstable.     

中国外汇储备增长下的货币政策调控困境

外汇储备是体现和制约货币政策有效性的重要因素。在开放经济条件下,外汇储备与货币政策内在的逻辑联系;外汇储备变动会对我国货币政策调控产生冲击,引起汇率政策与货币政策的冲突。我国应改革现行的外汇管理制度,加大公开市场业务操作力度,促进国际收支结构平衡,以提高货币政策实施的自主性和灵活性。     

Monitoring and evaluation of loveLife's AIDS prevention and advocacy activities in South Africa, 1999–2001

loveLife is the largest effort ever launched in South Africa to change adolescent sexual behaviour with the aim of reducing the rate of HIV infection among 15–20 year olds by 50%, reducing other STIs, and reducing the incidence of teenage pregnancy. loveLife combines high-powered media awareness and education, development of adolescent-friendly reproductive health services, and outreach and support programmes. The 5-year research and evaluation plan includes a multi-year comprehensive observational study, tracking change in a range of behavioural indicators and in sexual health outcomes. In its first 2 years, loveLife reached more than 4 million youth. Sixty-two percent of youth and 59% of their parents/guardians recognize the brand, while the vast majority of parents (97%) and youth (89%) exposed to loveLife, identified loveLife as being positive. Challenges in the next years are the continued roll out of the programme, and the development of institutional support and behaviour change.     

Zimbabwe's AIDS action programme for schools

AIDS education started very early in Zimbabwe and is now compulsory in all schools. This evaluation documents the development of the primary and secondary school AIDS Action Programme from 1991 to 1998. Six programme aspects were evaluated: programme start-up, planning and management, development of syllabi and materials, teacher training, research, monitoring and evaluation, and co-ordination. The Programme drew on resources from within the existing educational system. Due to broad-based consultation and participation, it was supported by Government and partners. Flexible management ensured implementation of mid-course corrections. It was concluded that school AIDS programmes should stress participatory teaching and learning methods and life-skills training. Curriculum writers and teachers needed training and supervision in participatory techniques. Cluster workshops between district and school levels were needed to strengthen the cascade model of teacher training that had been adopted. Systematic research, monitoring and evaluation were essential, including follow-ups to baseline surveys. The Zimbabwean programme was well-designed, relatively inexpensive and replicable.     

The Role of Cancer Risk in the Regulation of Industrial Pollution

The extent of carcinogen regulation under existing U.S. environmental statutes is assessed by developing measures of the scope and stringency of regulation. While concern about cancer risk has played an important political role in obtaining support for pollution control programs, it has not provided the predominant rationale for most regulatory actions taken to date. Less than 20% of all standards established to limit concentrations of chemicals in various media address carcinogens. Restrictions on chemical use are more frequently based on concerns about noncancer human health or ecological effects. Of the chemicals in commercial use which have been identified as potential human carcinogens on the basis of rodent bioassays, only a small proportion are regulated. There is an inverse relationship between the scope of regulatory coverage and the stringency of regulatory requirements: the largest percentages of identified carcinogens are affected by the least stringent requirements, such as information disclosure. Standards based on de minimis cancer risk levels have been established for only 10% of identified carcinogens and are restricted to one medium: water. Complete bans on use have affected very few chemicals. The general role that carcinogenicity now plays in the regulatory process is not dramatically different from that of other adverse human health effects: if a substance is identified as a hazard, it may eventually be subject to economically achievable and technically feasible restrictions.     

量子阱光电子开关器件(一)

量子阱半导体结构可使诸如光调制器和开关等光电子器件做得更小、更快、效率更高。它所具有的逻辑特性使其在并行高速互连的电子集成电路的集成度上具有良好的潜力。光电子器件能采用波导,也能采用二维并行阵列制作。其集成规模可达2048个单元,可工作的光逻辑和存贮器件的阵列得以实现及运行,所有单元都可由自由空间光(free-space optics)进行外部并行访问。本文概述了量子阱器件的运行机理及其发展前景。     

Evaluation of HIV/AIDS peer education projects in Zambia

This 1998 evaluation assessed the peer education programmes of HIV/AIDS projects run by four non-governmental organisations. A mini-case study approach was used and analysis was based on cross-case itemistic variables. The projects were assessed only in terms of immediate developmental outcomes to target groups rather than on long-term impact. The study concluded the following: (1) The projects had raised community awareness of HIV/AIDS; (2) Basic knowledge of HIV/AIDS was for the most part accurate; (3) There was anecdotal evidence of behavioural changes in terms of partner-reduction as reported by the projects, though the evidence was sometimes conflicting; and (4) There was evidence that certain traditional practices, which contributed to the spread of the virus (e.g. sexual cleansing and scarification), were becoming modified over time. The programmes were also instrumental in protecting human rights and enabling people living with HIV/AIDS to maintain human dignity.