The Potential for Reducing Mortality in Russia

This article attempts to assess current national and regional reserves for reducing the mortality rate in Russia. It explores the potential to reduce the mortality rate in comparison to comparable international benchmarks in rates of growth and gains in life expectancy at birth, identifies a range of circumstances that have an adverse impact on the population’s health in post-Soviet Russia, and shows that the main reserve for reducing mortality remains the “lost health capital” that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union and continued in the 1990s. Finally, it assesses the current regional potential for lowering the mortality rate, which is “hidden” in differences between regions leading in life expectancy (with the exception of extremes) and the country’s remaining territories. The conclusion presents data revealing the life expectancy of men and women.     

论社科文献交流的障碍与对策

本文从社会、语言、交流系统和时间等方面论述了祉科文献在交流过程中存在的障碍，并对此提出了相应的解决对策．     

Discriminant analysis of survey data

We consider the problem of the effect of sample designs on discriminant analysis. The selection of the learning sample is assumed to depend on the population values of auxiliary variables. Under a superpopulation model with a multivariate normal distribution, unbiasedness and consistency are examined for the conventional estimators (derived under the assumptions of simple random sampling), maximum likelihood estimators, probability-weighted estimators and conditionally unbiased estimators of parameters. Four corresponding sampled linear discriminant functions are examined. The rates of misclassification of these four discriminant functions and the effect of sample design on these four rates of misclassification are discussed. The performances of these four discriminant functions are assessed in a simulation study.     

试析宋代风俗画产生发展的原因

宋代风俗画的产生发展与宋代的政治、经济制度及阶级关系的变化有密切关系 ,也与民间审美情趣被广泛认可和市民生活的需求有密切关系。而其中特别是士大夫与市民互为发明的关系 ,对风俗画的产生和发展尤为重要 ,这些关系 ,不仅共同构筑了宋代的风俗艺术思想框架 ,也共同构筑了“风俗画”的摇篮。     

Cardiac measures of stress in British prison officers

This paper considers the experience of stress in British prison officers and in particular the physiological effect of work activity on those individuals. It reviews the evidence provided by some international studies as well as the recent occupational mortality statistics produced by the OPCS (1986). In particular, the paper concentrates on the benefits of using ambulatory measures of heart rate as a measure of stress and illustrates this with the initial data of a study carried out at HM Prison, Gartree. Results are described in terms of mean heart rate by time and by work activity.     

试论白菖蒲利用的可行性

不同季节的白菖蒲,用白菖蒲的不同部位,并采用不同的提取方法,对白菖蒲油的产率有不同的影响,在我国农村推广种植白菖蒲具有一定的经济价值.     

ASSESSING ERROR RATE ESTIMATORS: THE LEAVE-ONE-OUT METHOD RECONSIDERED

Many comparative studies of the estimators of error rates of supervised classification rules are based on inappropriate criteria. In particular, although they fix the Bayes error rate, their summary statistics aggregate a range of true error rates. This means that their conclusions about the performance of classification rules cannot be trusted. This paper discusses the general issues involved, and then focuses attention specifically on the leave-one-out estimator. The estimator is investigated in a simulation study, both in absolute terms and in comparison with a popular bootstrap estimator. An improvement to the leave-one-out estimator is suggested, but the bootstrap estimator appears to maintain superiority even when the criteria are adjusted.     

标准伽玛分布族参数的EB估计的收敛速度

本文构造了标准伽玛分布族参数的EB估计，并给出了该估计的收敛速度。在适当的条件下，该速度可以分别充分接近于1／2和1。     

A SEMI-MARKOV MODEL FOR EAR INFECTION

A recent study of the prevalence of middle ear infection among Australian aborigines reports, for different age groups, the number currently infected, the number currently not infected and the number who are currently not infected but have scarring of the ear drum showing evidence of a previous infection. Incidence and recovery are modelled by a semi-Markov model in which incidence of the infection is allowed to be nonstationary.