A Bayesian ordinal logistic regression model to correct for interobserver measurement error in a geographical oral health study

Summary.  We present an approach for correcting for interobserver measurement error in an ordinal logistic regression model taking into account also the variability of the estimated correction terms. The different scoring behaviour of the 16 examiners complicated the identification of a geographical trend in a recent study on caries experience in Flemish children (Belgium) who were 7 years old. Since the measurement error is on the response the factor 'examiner' could be included in the regression model to correct for its confounding effect. However, controlling for examiner largely removed the geographical east–west trend. Instead, we suggest a (Bayesian) ordinal logistic model which corrects for the scoring error (compared with a gold standard) using a calibration data set. The marginal posterior distribution of the regression parameters of interest is obtained by integrating out the correction terms pertaining to the calibration data set. This is done by processing two Markov chains sequentially, whereby one Markov chain samples the correction terms. The sampled correction term is imputed in the Markov chain pertaining to the regression parameters. The model was fitted to the oral health data of the Signal–Tandmobiel^® study. A WinBUGS program was written to perform the analysis.     

利用习题课教学促进大学生数学认知结构的发展与优化

习题课教学是高等数学教学不可分割的部分,在学生建构良好的数学认知结构过程中发挥着重要作用,对数学学习影响极大．目前习题课教学中存在的问题主要有：知识点的简单罗列;解题过程缺乏探索;忽视解题后的反思．为发挥习题课的特殊功能,对概念小结,例题讲解,解题后反思进行了重新审视．     

案例教学法在法学高教改革中的命运抉择

在中国法学高等教育教学方法的改革浪潮中,案例教学法成风靡之势。但综观当下中国法学推行的案例教学法在认识和运用中却存在四大误区。在中国的法学教育环境中,案例教学法无法取代传统的讲授教学法有其内在的原因和外在的制约,因而对案例教学法不能顶礼膜拜。在具有浓厚的大陆法系传统的国情下,对法学高教方法的改革,更新、提升传统的讲授教学法并使之现代化,远比盲目、歪曲地追随案例教学法更有意义、更有价值。     

Acquired immunity: immunosenescence and physical activity

Several lines of evidence indicate that infectious diseases, cancer, and autoimmune disorders occur more frequently in elderly people, thus suggesting that altered function of immune organs and cells, such as thymus and T and B lymphocytes are of primary importance in the pathogenesis of these diseases. Furthermore, old subjects are less responsive to vaccine than younger because of immune changes. The most common changes accompanying the adaptive immune system include decrement of T and B cells proliferation, repertoire degeneracy, increase of the memory cell type, decreased numbers of naive cells, and shift from T helper₁ (Th1) to T helper₂ (Th2) response. Regular exercise in the elderly may improve the alterations in acquired immunity which follow the physiological process of aging, allowing a major resistance against external pathogens and a better quality of life.     

浅议体育活动对大学生心理健康的促进

体育是一种大学生心理健康的积极有效的调适方法,体育对大学生心理健康的作用表现在大学生不良情绪的宣泄、增进交往提高社会适应能力、促进大学生形成良好的意志品质、形成良好的个性、心理治疗效应、培养竞争意识和协作精神等方面。为此,通过贯彻健康第一的思想,构建有效的体育课程模式,营造健康的校园体育文化环境,加强体育与健康课程的建设和管理,注重体育与心理咨询相结合,强化体育与心理健康教育的结合,将有利于大学生心理健康状况的改善。     

课外体育锻炼影响大学生自我发展的理论分析

在大量查阅分析关于身体自我的研究、形体感知偏差及流畅体验研究结果的基础上,采用文献资料法、逻辑分析法,对课外体育锻炼通过调节自我,增进大学生的心理健康机制进行了理论探讨和分析,并试图进一步解释大学生课外体育锻炼的心理健康效应。     

论高等学校处分权的行使及规范

高等学校依法享有自主管理的权利,对本校违纪学生给予一定的处罚是十分必要的。学校执行纪律的结果必然会对学生的权益和前途产生相应的影响。以前,我们只考虑学校行使维持校园秩序的权利是十分必要的,应当被支持和尊重,却很少研究和思考学校行使权利的方法和程序是否合法、是否公正。伴随着中国民主与法治建设的发展和提高,我们在从事高校学生管理工作的过程中,越来越清醒地认识到,高等学校行使权利,必须以合法、公正为前提,否则也会导致权利的滥用。     

Estimating the turning point location in shifted exponential model of time series

We consider the distribution of the turning point location of time series modeled as the sum of deterministic trend plus random noise. If the variables are modeled by shifted exponentials, whose location parameters define the trend, we provide a formula for computing the distribution of the turning point location and consequently to estimate a confidence interval for the location. We test this formula in simulated data series having a trend with asymmetric minimum, investigating the coverage rate as a function of a bandwidth parameter. The method is applied to estimate the confidence interval of the minimum location of two types of real-time series: the RT intervals extracted from the electrocardiogram recorded during the exercise test and an economic indicator, the current account balance. We discuss the connection with stochastic ordering.     

体疗健身术溯源

从原始社会史、翔实的古代文献和最新考古发掘的成果,综合论述了我国体疗健身术的渊源,并分析了其形神气和谐协调的锻炼特点,它具有养生保健和祛病疗疾的双重作用,完全符合当今卫生经济学的原则要求,所以值得我们加以继承和发扬。     

运动导致延迟性肌肉酸痛探微

人体从事大强度或不习惯运动后产生的延迟性肌内酸痛,长期以来困扰着运动训练和大众体育健身活动的顺利进行.本文从运动生理学的视角,对产生延迟性肌肉酸痛的原因进行了探讨;提出了预防与消除延迟性肌肉酸痛的手段.旨在为运动训练和全民体育健身活动提供一点借鉴.