中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的实证研究

在环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的基础上,选用30个省域2000—2009年数据,运用空间面板计量经济模型研究碳排放与经济增长的关系,结果表明:利用空间相关性指标检验出经济发展与碳排放之间存在显著的空间效应;利用空间面板自回归和误差模型发现,中国碳排放与经济增长存在倒U形关系,转折点在8.167亿元至11.025亿元人均GDP之间;工业结构比重对碳减排有消极影响,而技术进步、FDI与碳排放之间存在显著的正效应,这说明通过降低工业结构比重、促进新能源技术的革新以及引进外资等能减少中国的碳排放。     

开放经济对碳排放的影响 ——-基于中国地区与行业面板数据的实证检验

研究开放经济下外商直接投资、对外直接投资以及国际贸易对我国碳排放的影响具有十分 重要的现实和理论意义。研究发现,外商直接投资的增长可以减少我国的碳排放,对外直接投资也有助 于降低国内的碳排放量,而出口贸易则会在一定程度上带来国内碳排放量的增长。但开放经济对碳排放 量的影响在不同的地区和行业呈现出不同的特征,地区间碳排放差异显著,与当地的经济发达程度和主 导产业相关,另外行业特性也决定了碳排放量的高低。因此,政府应不断提高环境保护标准,监督企业遵 照执行,改善国内生态环境,还要加大经济结构调整力度,对高排放类行业实施严格的环境管理政策,促 使企业改进生产技术,减少排放。     

基于历史排放参照的碳配额分配机制研究

将行业内企业按单位产品碳排放水平分为高排企业和低排企业两类,并将"共同但有区别的责任原则"引入行业内部,构建基于双寡头竞争市场的碳配额分配策略。通过建立基于分配策略的古诺模型,研究减排目标、分配策略和单位产品碳排放水平对企业的利润差、产量和碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,减排策略对单位产品碳排放水平具有较强的敏感性;当行业中的企业存在单位产品碳排放水平差异时,对低排企业宽松的碳配额分配策略具有更强的减排激励效用,利于企业主动实施低碳技术改造;阶段式递进减排机制对"共同但有区别责任原则"在行业内应用,企业低碳技术改造的激励效用以及减排政策的稳步推进有积极的作用;同时研究表明准确核实企业单位产品碳排放水平的重要性。     

Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality: Time‐Related Factors in Exposure and Risk

To develop a quantitative exposure‐response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC‐associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure‐response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA.     

Reanalysis of the DEMS Nested Case‐Control Study of Lung Cancer and Diesel Exhaust: Suitability for Quantitative Risk Assessment

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2012 upgraded its hazard characterization of diesel engine exhaust (DEE) to “carcinogenic to humans.” The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort and nested case‐control studies of lung cancer mortality in eight U.S. nonmetal mines were influential in IARC's determination. We conducted a reanalysis of the DEMS case‐control data to evaluate its suitability for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Our reanalysis used conditional logistic regression and adjusted for cigarette smoking in a manner similar to the original DEMS analysis. However, we included additional estimates of DEE exposure and adjustment for radon exposure. In addition to applying three DEE exposure estimates developed by DEMS, we applied six alternative estimates. Without adjusting for radon, our results were similar to those in the original DEMS analysis: all but one of the nine DEE exposure estimates showed evidence of an association between DEE exposure and lung cancer mortality, with trend slopes differing only by about a factor of two. When exposure to radon was adjusted, the evidence for a DEE effect was greatly diminished, but was still present in some analyses that utilized the three original DEMS DEE exposure estimates. A DEE effect was not observed when the six alternative DEE exposure estimates were utilized and radon was adjusted. No consistent evidence of a DEE effect was found among miners who worked only underground. This article highlights some issues that should be addressed in any use of the DEMS data in developing a QRA for DEE.     

低碳背景下政府行为及供应链合作研发博弈分析

研究了在低碳化背景下,考虑政府征收碳税的纵向供应链最优减排问题。通过建立供应链无减排研发、单独减排研发以及合作减排研发三种模型,采用逆向求解法,首先制造商制定最优减排量,然后供应链参与者决定各自的价格并得到各自的最优利润。通过对均衡结果分析得出,供应链合作研发的最优减排量大于单独研发最优减排量;供应链最优减排量与研发成本系数成负向关系,与分担比例成正向关系。最后用数值分析法证明了,制定合理碳税税率不仅促使最优减排量达到最大值,并且有利于供应链合作减排研发。最后联系实际为政府制定合理碳税税率,以及企业如何实现节能减排供应链协调提出了建议。     

臭氧技术在柴油机中的应用

通过对柴油发动机臭氧助燃机理分析,设计了臭氧发生器,并将其用于6135型柴油发动机台架试验中。试验结果证明：臭氧参与柴油发动机的燃烧过程起到了节油和降低排放的双重效果。     

印刷车间再热的热回收节能策略

针对夏季印刷车间空气处理过程中,由于控制室内温湿度波动而采取再热措施造成冷热抵消的能源浪费现象, 根据空气处理过程焓湿图分析了西安某印刷车间夏季空气处理产生再热的原因,并在对印刷产生有机废气采用局部排 风进行有效收集处理的基础上,针对性地提出了利用热回收以补偿再热负荷的思路。比较了几种常见热回收装置的特 点,根据对印刷有机废气催化处理后排放尾气的温度,选择了热管式显热回收方式,进而分析了其传热量及显热回收效 率的计算过程,突出了其节能优势,最终达到充分利用废热节能的目的。     

资源消耗对碳排放的驱动机制研究

借鉴环境影响随机模型,构建了碳排放驱动模型,分析结果表明,在以重工业为主导的背景下,在政府发展经济和居民提高生活水平的双重驱动下,城市化、居民消费增长、经济发展等都是碳排放增加的主要动因,而能源消耗结构优化才对碳排放具有抑制作用。因此,要减少碳排放只有倡导低碳生活、改善能源消耗结构,大力发展循环经济,才能切实、有效地实现减排目标。     

Risk–risk governance in a low-carbon future: Exploring institutional,technological, and behavioral tradeoffs in climate geoengineering pathways

Deliberations are underway to utilize increasingly radical technological options to help address climate change and stabilize the climatic system. Collectively, these options are often referred to as “climate geoengineering.” Deployment of such options, however, can create wicked tradeoffs in governance and require adaptive forms of risk management. In this study, we utilize a large and novel set of qualitative expert interview data to more deeply and systematically explore the types of risk–risk tradeoffs that may emerge from the use of 20 different climate geoengineering options, 10 that focus on carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas removal, and 10 that focus on solar radiation management and reflecting sunlight. We specifically consider: What risks does the deployment of these options entail? What types of tradeoffs may emerge through their deployment? We apply a framework that clusters risk–risk tradeoffs into institutional and governance, technological and environmental, and behavioral and temporal dimensions. In doing so, we offer a more complete inventory of risk–risk tradeoffs than those currently available within the respective risk-assessment, energy-systems, and climate-change literatures, and we also point the way toward future research gaps concerning policy, deployment, and risk management.