Smooth tail-index estimation

The two parametric distribution functions appearing in the extreme-value theory – the generalized extreme-value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution – have log-concave densities if the extreme-value index γ∈[?1, 0]. Replacing the order statistics in tail-index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from the distribution function that is based on the estimated log-concave density ? f _n leads to novel smooth quantile and tail-index estimators. These new estimators aim at estimating the tail index especially in small samples. Acting as a smoother of the empirical distribution function, the log-concave distribution function estimator reduces estimation variability to a much greater extent than it introduces bias. As a consequence, Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean-squared error.     

修正衰减曲线法在低渗气藏动态分析中的应用

摘要：压力是气井和气藏生产动态分析的灵魂，很多动态分析方法都与压力有着直接的联系。然而，由于致密低渗透气藏产量低、压力下降快、关井压力恢复缓慢等生产特征，以及生产方式的限制，在生产过程中很难获得气井或气藏地层压力资料。压降法、产量不稳定分析法和产量递减曲线分析方法是气藏常用的气井生产动态分析方法，但由于地层压力资料缺乏，压降法和产量不稳定分析法也都受到了很大的限制，在衰减递减曲线分析方法的基础上对其进行修正，摆脱了压力资料的限制，通过和压降法对比分析，验证了修正衰减曲线分析方法在生产动态分析中的可靠性。     

基于同城化视角的人口空间动态与区域经济发展耦合关联机理研究

人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关系是同城化区域间共同面对的重要课题。本文在解构人口空间动态维度主体的基础上,将人口空间动态的诉求机制与动因机理架构于更低交易费用的利益诉求之上,解析人口空间动态的模式选择,深入探讨人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关联性。在此基础上,提出引导人口流动与合理分布的策略。研究成果将有助于更好地理解同城化态势下人口空间演变的动因机理,为同城区域的经济发展、城市规划、文化交融等方面的科学设计提供重要参考。     

Bilateral Donors' Efforts to Assess and Manage UN Agencies' Effectiveness: Seeking a Balance between Paris Principles and Domestic Accountability

Since the turn of the century, results orientation and performance measurement have become buzzwords in development aid. Bilateral donors are increasingly concerned about the effectiveness of core‐funded UN specialised agencies, funds and programmes, through which they channel a substantial part of their funds. While the logic for increased monitoring is clear, it is less evident how to assess this information for purposes of accountability, performance‐based funding and governance. This article describes the general evolution in this area and discusses two major initiatives to harmonise and align bilateral assessments, using case‐study material from three bilateral donors (Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK) with clearly diverging performance‐management cultures, and exploring the extent to which they rely upon joint and aligned initiatives.     

人力资源管理与企业战略、绩效关系研究的演进——基于企业环境的变化

高度动态化的环境作为当前企业面临的最大问题,导致不可预测性的增强。这将直接影响战略的制定和执行。因此,这一环境下的企业如何保持战略实施有效性和竞争优势可持续性成为企业发展道路上的关键。而在战略与绩效的关系中,人力资源作为企业关键的战略性资源是企业运作的基础,其管理起了非常重要的作用。本文通过对已有文献的详细梳理,概括出两类研究类型:战略和人力资源的匹配;人力资源的配置管理与实现绩效的关系。柔性化思想的提出,使人力资源研究有了新的方向。在环境变动这一前提下,人力资源柔性化的管理区别于传统意义上的管理。本文以动态环境的背景,围绕人力资源、战略、绩效三者的关系提炼出整合的演进框架,以更好地指导未来人力资源相关的研究。     

中国—东盟政治合作机制研究

本文根据中国—东盟区域合作发展的政治合作机制的概念及呈现的多维特性,运用政治合作的目标分解和构成要素,对政治合作机制进行综合的结构分析。通过利益泛化(低度)、制度分化(中度)和价值固化(深度)生成的三个阶段性使命目标(和睦共享、和平共处与和谐共荣)合作过程的剖析,对中国—东盟政治合作机制建设的结构性问题进行探讨,以此助推区域政治合作机制的改进和优化。     

Estimating ordered quantiles of two exponential populations with a common minimum guarantee time

The problem of estimating ordered quantiles of two exponential populations is considered, assuming equality of location parameters (minimum guarantee times), using the quadratic loss function. Under order restrictions, we propose new estimators which are the isotonized version of the MLEs, call it, restricted MLE. A sufficient condition for improving equivariant estimators is derived under order restrictions on the quantiles. Consequently, estimators improving upon the old estimators have been derived. A detailed numerical study has been done to evaluate the performance of proposed estimators using the Monte-Carlo simulation method and recommendations have been made for the use of the estimators.     

Complementary person-supervisor fit: An investigation of supplies-values (S-V) fit,leader-member exchange (LMX) and work outcomes

By applying the supplies-values (S-V) fit approach from the complementary person-environment (P-E) fit literature to the leader-employee perspective, and drawing upon social exchange theory, we examine how fulfillment of different work values is related to Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) and work outcomes. First, polynomial regression analyses combined with response surface analysis of data collected at two time points (N = 316) showed that LMX (Time 2) was higher the more the leader fulfills the employee's work values (Time 1). Second, LMX (Time 2) was higher when leader supplies (Time 1) and employee work values (Time 1) were both high than when both were low. Third, analyses of data from a sub-sample of matched leader-employee dyads (N = 140), showed that LMX (Time 2) played a mediating role on the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and work outcomes (Time 2). Specifically, we found eight out of 10 relationships between S-V fit (Time 1) and leader-rated task performance and OCB (Time 2) to be fully mediated by LMX (Time 2). LMX (Time 2) partially mediated the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and job satisfaction (Time 2) as only two out of five relationships were fully mediated.     

幼儿园表演区游戏开展中存在的问题及解决对策——以某幼儿园大班表演区游戏《小熊请客》为例

现如今大多数幼儿园将表演游戏融入区域活动中，作为表演区游戏开展活动之一，这一转变，在实践层面上有许多值得研究的问题。文章通过对某幼儿园大班表演区游戏的观察研究发现，表演区游戏在开展中存在场所设置不合理、材料投放单一高控、游戏参与积极性低等问题。为此提出相应的解决对策：游戏前准备适宜的场地、丰富的内容、多样的材料；游戏中细心观察，适时引导，指导过程中注意重游戏轻表演；游戏后共同分享交流，解决游戏中出现的问题，以此更好地发挥表演区游戏的实际效用。     

Impact of an Overt Response System on Staff Performance and Maintenance of Computer-Based Instruction

Interactive Computer Based Instruction (CBI) systems involve teaching strategies to facilitate greater response opportunities during training in an effort to improve learner performance. The current study investigated the effect of online staff training videos with and without overt response requirements on posttest and maintenance test scores across six block-randomized instructional modules for four employees of a university located in the southeastern region of the United States. The overt response consisted of multiple-choice questions administered throughout select teaching modules using an alternating treatment design. Findings suggest that learning occurred as a result of the CBI training; however, the effectiveness of the overt response system varied across individuals, with no discernible differentiation between learning gains associated with response requirements. Other areas of research for expanding the efficacy of CBI and overt response systems are highlighted.