Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

农产品网购意愿影响因素及作用机理研究——基于参照效应视角的分析

以整合型科技接受和使用模型(UTAUT)和价值接受模型(VAM)为基础,通过构建参照群体、参考价格、积极在线评论与感知价值、感知风险以及购买意愿之间的关系模型,从参照效应视角实证分析了农产品网购意愿的影响因素及作用机理,并探讨了消费者农产品质量与安全意识在参照效应影响网购意愿中的调节作用.结果表明:参照效应对农产品网购意愿有显著影响;感知价值和感知风险在参照效应影响网购意愿中均发挥了中介作用,但感知价值的中介作用显著大于感知风险;消费者农产品质量与安全意识在参照效应影响网购意愿中部分地发挥了调节效应.其中,对参照群体和积极在线评论的调节效应显著,即网购过程中,消费者越是重视农产品质量与安全,参照群体的意见和积极在线评论对其网购意愿的影响就会越凸显.     

Rational-experiential thinking style and rational intergroup cooperation: the moderating role of intergroup conflict / Estilos de pensamiento racional-experiencial y la cooperación intergrupal racional: el rol modulador del conflicto intergrupal

Cooperative relationships between groups are difficult because of the high human capability to differentiate between in-group vs. out-group members. This obstacle exists even when the groups can obtain benefits for themselves from cooperation with other groups (rational cooperation). Based on an interactionist approach, the authors propose that personal (individual differences) and situational (conflicts) factors contribute to rational intergroup cooperation. The authors conducted a preliminary correlational study (Study 1) and an experimental investigation (Study 2). In Study 1, the authors examined, with 105 participants, the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Rational–Experiential Inventory (REI), measuring individual differences in information processing. In Study 2, the authors conducted an experimental investigation with 141 participants, testing the role of individual differences and conflict in intergroup rational cooperation. Findings of Study 1 showed that the scale has adequate psychometric properties. Results of Study 2 confirmed that the existence of both manipulated and perceived intergroup conflict reduces the magnitudes of the relationships between rational ability and rational cooperation. In addition, perceived intergroup conflict increased the magnitude of the links from experiential ability and experimental engagement to rational cooperation. Both individual differences and previous conflict have a role in predicting rational intergroup cooperation. According to the interactionist approach, personal and situational factors should be considered in the understanding of intergroup relationships.     

网络条件下基层图书资料室的建设与服务

在网络条件下,科研单位研究所一级的基层图书资料室仍然具有不可替代性,但必须在资料来源、储存、整理、检索、效能等方面转型,资料的配置要有明确的目标,服务方式要实现现代化.     

Social mobility and demand for redistribution in Europe: a comparative analysis

The literature on preferences for redistribution has paid little attention to the effect of social mobility on the demand for redistribution and no systematic test of the hypotheses connecting social mobility and preferences for redistribution has yet been done to date. We use the diagonal reference model to estimate the effect of origin and destination classes on preferences for redistribution in a large sample of European countries using data from the European Social Survey. Our findings are consistent with the logic of acculturation in the sense that newcomers tend to adapt their views to those of the destination class at early stages and that upward and downward mobility do not have distinctive effects on the formation of political preferences. However, even though social origins seem to have a limited impact on preferences for redistribution, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that mobile and non‐mobile individuals are alike. We also find that the effect of social origin on preferences varies largely across countries. The empirical evidence leads to the conclusion that the effect of social origin on preferences for redistribution increases in contexts of strong familism.     

Income Comparison as a Determining Mechanism of Class Identification: A Quantitative and Simulation Study Using Japanese Survey Data

This paper questions whether personal income comparison explains the distributive gap between income and class identification by exploring the following two issues: empirical validity of income comparison as the determinant of class identification, and theoretical validity of income comparison for the distributive gap. For the first issue, we conduct a statistical analysis using data from the Social Stratification and Social Mobility surveys (1975–2005), and the Stratification and Social Psychology-I survey (2010). We find that the criteria for choosing reference groups changed historically from residential proximity to occupational equality. In addition, income comparison with sensitive to lower-income possessors and a distorted perception of income difference significantly affected class identification, except for the year of 1985. The simulation analysis employed to examine the second issue clarified that income comparison with the above-mentioned features yields a less skewed distribution compared to that of class identification. The data also indicates that the empirical conditions of income are satisfied for realization of this result. Thus, we could ascertain empirical and theoretical validity of income comparison as explanation for the distributive gap between income and class identification.     

Reference Groups,Mob Mentality,and Bystander Intervention: A Sociological Analysis of the Lara Logan Case1

Despite that it involves mobs, bystanders, and political theater—three classic concepts in social psychology—academics have neglected analyzing the Lara Logan sexual assault case through these lenses. I explore how the case has been discussed in the media and suggest that analysis of the mob and bystanders has been, oddly, lacking. I argue that the best reference group to use when discussing this case is not other journalists or even other women who have survived assaults, but is instead enemy women who have survived politically motivated wartime gang sexual assaults. Most observers have overlooked the relevant reference group due to focusing on the traits of the victim, rather than on the context of the event itself. I argue that the case conforms to important dimensions: (1) the sociological norm that gang violence involves premeditation, (2) an agreement of values among perpetrators, and (3) that the violence itself lacked cultural and social legitimacy. Logan was likely targeted because she was a “stranger”; she was saved, in part, for the same reason. The case illustrates known patterns of mob mentalities and bystander intervention, yet it is unlike most cases of both nonwartime gender violence and violence against journalists.     

A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices

This paper sets out to identify the abilities that a person needs to be able to successfully use an experimental device, such as a probability wheel or balls in an urn, for the elicitation of subjective probabilities. It is assumed that the successful use of the device requires that the person elicits unique probability values that obey the standard probability laws. This leads to a definition of probability based on the idea of the similarity between the likeliness of events and this concept is naturally extended to the idea that probabilities have strengths, which relates to information about the likeliness of an event that lies beyond a simple probability value. The latter notion is applied to the problem of explaining the Ellsberg paradox. To avoid the definition of probability being circular, probabilities are defined such that they depend on the choice of a reference set of events R which, in simple cases, corresponds to the raw outcomes produced by using an experimental device. However, it is shown that even when the events in R are considered as having an “equal chance” of occurring, the values and/or strengths of probabilities can still be affected by the choice of the set R.     

Bayesian approach to estimation of intraclass correlation using reference prior

For the balanced variance component model when the intraclass correlation coefficient is of interest, Bayesian analysis is often appropriate. Berger and Bernardo’s (1992a) grouped ordering reference prior approach is used to analyze this model. The reference priors are developed and compared for the posterior inference with real and simulated data. We examine whether the reference priors satisfy the probability-matching criterion. Further, the reference prior is shown to be good in the sense of correct frequentist coverage probability of the posterior quantile.     

Kernel estimation of a distribution function

A distribution function is estimated by a kernel method with

a poinrwise mean squared error criterion at a point x. Relation- ships between the mean squared error, the point x, the sample size and the required kernel smoothing parazeter are investigated for several distributions treated by Azzaiini (1981). In particular it is noted that at a centre of symmetry or near a mode of the distribution the kernei method breaks down. Point- wise estimation of a distribution function is motivated as a more useful technique than a reference range for preliminary medical diagnosis.