不确定环境下考虑风险厌恶的生产-分销网络优化模型及试验设计

考虑上游生产和下游需求不确定性，研究了由工厂、分销中心及终端市场构成的生产-分销网络优化设计问题。针对上游生产不确定性，考虑产生故障和无故障两种状态；针对下游市场需求不确定性，考虑其具有低、中和高三种状态。由于生产发生故障可能导致不合格品的产生，进一步考虑了在上游生产环节是否实施产品监测问题。综合网络运作成本和由不确定性导致的绩效风险，建立了由风险厌恶水平和悲观系数刻画的基于均值-条件风险值（CVaR）准则的生产-分销网络两阶段随机规划模型。特别地，针对由网络潜在节点数众多所导致的不确定情景规模过大的问题，采用情景缩减技术进行了情景筛选，降低了所建模型的求解难度。最后，进行了数值计算，分析了相关参数对网络运作绩效的影响，并给出了期望成本和条件风险值两个目标权衡的帕累托有效前沿。进一步，通过回归试验设计检验了决策者风险厌恶水平和悲观系数对所设计的生产-分销网络绩效的影响程度。结果表明，相对于决策者的风险厌恶程度，悲观系数对网络运作绩效的影响更大。     

A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices

This paper sets out to identify the abilities that a person needs to be able to successfully use an experimental device, such as a probability wheel or balls in an urn, for the elicitation of subjective probabilities. It is assumed that the successful use of the device requires that the person elicits unique probability values that obey the standard probability laws. This leads to a definition of probability based on the idea of the similarity between the likeliness of events and this concept is naturally extended to the idea that probabilities have strengths, which relates to information about the likeliness of an event that lies beyond a simple probability value. The latter notion is applied to the problem of explaining the Ellsberg paradox. To avoid the definition of probability being circular, probabilities are defined such that they depend on the choice of a reference set of events R which, in simple cases, corresponds to the raw outcomes produced by using an experimental device. However, it is shown that even when the events in R are considered as having an “equal chance” of occurring, the values and/or strengths of probabilities can still be affected by the choice of the set R.     

微观计量经济学中的实验设计法——期望“计量经济（学）设计与分析”的出现

 摘　　要:本文论述了实验设计思想在微观计量经济分析中的重要作用。从实验设计三大原理局部控制、随机化和重复出发，重新诠释微观计量经济学（特别是“因果链”分析）中有关方法论的问题，预期实验经济学和微观计量经济学将通过实验设计的思想方法而互相促进，并期望“计量经济（学）设计与分析”一类读物的出现。     

高校实验教学示范中心建设中的问题与成果初探

文章介绍了高校实验教学示范中心的主要建设内容与评审指标体系,分析了其反映的人才培养方面的深层意义;阐述了我校电工电子实验教学示范中心的建设思路、特色与成效,并对存在的问题进行了讨论。     

Optimal experimental design criterion for discriminating semiparametric models

This paper studies the optimal experimental design problem to discriminate two regression models. Recently, López-Fidalgo et al. [2007. An optimal experimental design criterion for discriminating between non-normal models. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 69, 231–242] extended the conventional T-optimality criterion by Atkinson and Fedorov [1975a. The designs of experiments for discriminating between two rival models. Biometrika 62, 57–70; 1975b. Optimal design: experiments for discriminating between several models. Biometrika 62, 289–303] to deal with non-normal parametric regression models, and proposed a new optimal experimental design criterion based on the Kullback–Leibler information divergence. In this paper, we extend their parametric optimality criterion to a semiparametric setup, where we only need to specify some moment conditions for the null or alternative regression model. Our criteria, called the semiparametric Kullback–Leibler optimality criteria, can be implemented by applying a convex duality result of partially finite convex programming. The proposed method is illustrated by a simple numerical example.     

氨水鼓泡吸收强化实验中的倒吸现象及存在机理分析

设计和建立了纳米流体氨水鼓泡吸收强化的实验系统．实验中倒吸现象影响着实验系统的稳定性和实验结果的真实性．实验发现：在氨气定流量条件下，在敞开式鼓泡吸收实验时，不容易发生倒吸现象，在吸收器真空状态吸收实验时，容易发生倒吸现象；在定压实验且压力为130kPa以上的真空吸收实验时，不容易发生倒吸现象．结合实验现象，从化学动力学角度，对倒吸现象发生可能存在的机理进行了分析．同时发现，纳米流体对氨水与氨气的化学反应转化速率并没有多大影响，说明纳米流体对氨水的强化吸收是一种物理现象．     

一道物理试题的教学反思及矫正策略

本文从一道物理试题的错因出发，对该部分的教学进行反思，并提出了相应的矫正策略．     

动物营养课程体系实验教学的改革与创新

改革实验教学内容,精选优化实验项目,采用新的教学模式和手段,改变实验指导方法,加强实践性的综合设计实验,增设创新性研究实验,提高了实验教学效果,对培养应用与创新型人才的效果明显。文中主要介绍了在动物营养课程体系实验教学过程中内容和模式的改革与创新取得的成效。     

浅谈机械计算机辅助设计实验室的管理与实验教学工作

机械计算机辅助设计(CAD)实验室是面对本科生扩招规模不断增大的现状所建立的校级实验室,主要完成本科教学中的相关机械类CAD课程的实验教学工作。文章重点阐述了实验室的实验教学及日常管理工作,并对实验室的创新发展提出了看法。     

基于FPGA的多功能实验板的设计与实现

设计和实现了一个以Altera FPGA的Cyclone件EP1C6Q240C8核心的多功能实验板．它分为核心板和扩展板，用户可以结合QuartusⅡ集成开发环境，使用vHDL语言、Verilog HDL语言或原理图，进行编辑、综合和仿真，通过本实验开发板加载配置并进行设计验证，经过测试验证了实验板的可行性和稳定性，能够满足教学和科研的需要．