Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

对培养学生英语自主学习能力的实践与思考

分析了由于长期的应试教育带来学生自主学习的能力较差的状况,结合英语教学实践,提出通过培养学生预习习惯,改变学生对学习英语的态度,引导和教会学生阅读技巧及方法,激发学生阅读兴趣,从而提高他们的阅读速度和阅读理解能力,促进自学能力的提高。     

信度函数在政府形象评价模型中的应用

在分析政府形象效能评价系统和信息置信度的基础上,建立了基于信度函数的政府形象评价模型。运用该函数建模分析了政府形象评估中的理念识别系统、行为识别系统、视觉识别系统、环境识别系统以及个人识别系统等五大不确定性评价问题。经过理论分析,该函数对政府形象的评估有较大的参考价值。此外,该函数也可以用于对其他类似复杂性系统的效能评估,具有普遍适用性。     

图书馆在加强大学生信息素质教育中作用初探

信息素质是大学生整体素质的重要组成部分,高校图书馆在加强大学生信息素质教育方面拥有很多优势,承担着重要责任,要充分发挥高校图书馆在信息资源提供、信息检索查询、信息网络保障、信息人才支持等方面的独特作用,做好大学生的信息素质教育工作。     

Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series

Summary.  Many long instrumental climate records are available and might provide useful information in climate research. These series are usually affected by artificial shifts, due to changes in the conditions of measurement and various kinds of spurious data. A comparison with surrounding weather-stations by means of a suitable two-factor model allows us to check the reliability of the series. An adapted penalized log-likelihood procedure is used to detect an unknown number of breaks and outliers. An example concerning temperature series from France confirms that a systematic comparison of the series together is valuable and allows us to correct the data even when no reliable series can be taken as a reference.     

图书馆特色化与学科建设

探讨了高校图书馆特色化建设与学科建设之间的互动性关系，提出了高校图书馆特色化建设的具体途径与方法，并指出在特色化建设时应注意的三个问题：层次定位、类型标准和精品战略。     

保函在国际承包工程中的运作方式——商贸英语教学中应介绍的一课

保函是国际商务活动,尤其是国际工程承包业务中被普遍接受的一种担保形式.本文主要介绍涉外商贸活动中常用的几种保函及运作方式.指出在商贸英语教学中向学生教授此类专业知识的必要性.     

日本的道德教育及高校德育改革

日本强国的成功,与其强大的教育、尤其是优秀文化传统和良好道德教育的强有力支撑分不开。如清明、正直善良同情吃苦勤劳节俭之心的传统美德;德育过程中的并重个性、协作、传统、劳动、人生观教育,强调学生主体、群体意识、异域优秀文化、道德实践,国家利益至上的完美结合。但日本朝野各界现都确认正视,全球化大深入背景下的日本高校德育危机已经出现不少大学生脱离政治;无远大理想;贪图生活安逸;个人主义倾向严重等。全方位的日本高校德育改革正在进行;德育成为学校教育的首位;最重要的德育目标仍然坚持民族精神与爱国思想;内容从共同价值观扩展至宗教、伦理、纪律、法制、民主、人道消费、环保等人类生活诸方面;正规课程与非正规课程结合;形式社会化、网络化与开放性整合。     

管理案例教学法的探析

管理案例教学法是现代管理学教育中不可替代的重要方法 ,是目前大学教育中弥补学生管理实践不足、锻炼提高学生学会管理本领的重要手段 ,同时也是促进教师素质提高的重要途径。本文对此试作探析。     

浅谈英语教学的改革与创新

通过对英语教学现状的分析 ,对英语教学的改革与创新做了初步的探讨 ,说明了教学改革势在必行 ,并提出了今后教学改革的思路。