发展玉米生产 确保稳粮增收

阐述了绵阳及四川玉米生产与需求现状,分析了玉米低产的原因,从调整粮食作物布局、加强基础设施建设、增大科技投入、推广玉米配套栽培技术和玉米开发利用等方面提出了发展玉米生产,确保稳粮增收的途径。     

油菜新品种高产稳产性分析方法比较

用高稳系数 (HSC)法分析了 1 995～ 1 997年度通过四川省油菜区域试验的参试品种的高产稳产性 ,并与通用统计分析方法得出的结论进行了比较和相关分析 ,结果表明HSC值与 x和CV值都呈显著相关关系 ,说明高稳系数法能综合分析油菜新品种 (系 )的高产稳产性     

Parametric Analysis for Matched Pair Survival Data

Hougaard's (1986) bivariate Weibull distribution with positive stable frailties is applied to matched pairs survival data when either or both components of the pair may be censored and covariate vectors may be of arbitrary fixed length. When there is no censoring, we quantify the corresponding gain in Fisher information over a fixed-effects analysis. With the appropriate parameterization, the results take a simple algebraic form. An alternative marginal (independence working model) approach to estimation is also considered. This method ignores the correlation between the two survival times in the derivation of the estimator, but provides a valid estimate of standard error. It is shown that when both the correlation between the two survival times is high, and the ratio of the within-pair variability to the between-pair variability of the covariates is high, the fixed-effects analysis captures most of the information about the regression coefficient but the independence working model does badly. When the correlation is low, and/or most of the variability of the covariates occurs between pairs, the reverse is true. The random effects model is applied to data on skin grafts, and on loss of visual acuity among diabetics. In conclusion some extensions of the methods are indicated and they are placed in a wider context of Generalized Estimating Equation methodology.     

地缘视角下新疆稳定发展的多元因素分析

影响新疆稳定发展的因素较多,包括政治、经济、体制等多方面的因素。该文从民族学的角度对影响新疆稳定的区位、民族、宗教、文化等因素进行分析,剖析利弊,并提出了相应的对策,即在上海合作组织的框架下,促进跨界民族"和平跨居",加强"四个认同"的宣传教育,提升民族凝聚力,坚决打击"三股势力",以期为新疆经济发展提供稳定的环境。     

以农村专业合作经济组织为依托促进四川退耕农民可持续增收

在退耕还林各项政策既定的条件下,要保证退耕还林成果不反弹,关键是要保证退耕农民收入的可持续增长。在四川,可以通过发展农村专业合作经济组织,提高农户进入市场的组织化程度,推进农业产业化经营,增强农林产品的竞争力。从而加强退耕农户自身的“造血”功能,以保证其收入的可持续增长。     

The evolution of awareness

We consider an evolutionary approach to how awareness is determined in games where players are not necessarily aware of all possible strategies. We begin with the standard notion of evolutionarily stable equilibrium, in which potential players pursue a fixed strategy. This constitutes a minimal level of awareness, since players are not required to know anything about the game or to reason about their opponents. We then consider the introduction of players with greater awareness.     

制度变迁的演化博弈分析——以医疗改革为例

有限理性的行为主体不能获得自己及其他人的全部策略或收益的信息,各行为主体在相互的利益博弈过程中观察他人的策略,通过学习模仿选择高收益的策略。选择高收益策略的人数比例逐步增大,经过一段时期的策略调整达到稳定均衡状态。因此,制度的变迁就是行为主体在博弈过程中为最大化,其自身收益不断调整策略而渐进演化的过程。     

品种稳定性参数和高稳系数在北方春玉米区试中的应用与分析

用品种稳定性参数和高稳系数法分析了 1994～ 1995年度全国北方春玉米区试材料 ,同时对几种方法的准确性作了比较分析。结果表明 :品种间回归系数的大小能较准确地反映出品种稳定性差异的程度 ,其对稳定性的代表性要比其它稳定性参数准确 ;用回归系数坐标分析法较为详细准确 ,但较繁琐。用高稳系数法分析品种高产稳产性简便可行 ,结果可靠。分析结果与生产实际相吻合。     

中国农业水利基本建设资金配置的实证研究

本文结合我国农业水利基建资金配置的实践,采用全国的数据,对农业水利基本建设资金配置的总量变化趋势、来源结构、项目结构、地区结构进行了实证研究。结果表明,农业水利基建资金总量呈快速增长之势,但这种增长又具有明显的阶段性;农业水利基建资金正逐步形成以政府为主的多渠道、多层次的来源格局,并在各类水利工程之间的安排也体现了一定的均衡性;随着西部大开发战略的实施,东、中、西部地区之间资金配置不均衡的状况有一定改善。