论稳健的财政政策与稳健的货币政策

中国经济在2002年底走出通货紧缩的阴影后,又从2003年8月起进入了温和的通货膨胀时期,如何保持国民经济的平稳较快发展,是宏观经济管理需要解决的重大课题。2004年12月3日中央经济工作会议决定在2005年及其以后相当长一段时间内实行稳健的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,是消除当前经济运行中不稳定不健康因素、巩固改革开放成果、推动经济社会持续发展而作出的重大决策。只有认真分析这个决策产生的时代背景,科学地认识这个政策的深刻内涵,创造性地探索出实施这个政策的具体办法,才能达到预期的宏观调控的目的。     

一个三阶拟线性方程解的局部存在性

本文应用半群无穷小生成算子稳定族所构造的发展系统讨论较广一类Kdv方程Cauchy问题解的局部存在性。     

基于演化博弈的建设用地集约利用制度研究

基于演化博弈方法对城市化地区和农业地区建设用地利用互动行为进行分析并结合经验数据仿真模拟发现:不同区域经济增长和耕地保护的考核比重差异化须足够大才能减少不同资源禀赋地区间的非合作用地行为;“大棒”政策有利于促进地方政府间的合作,基于“大棒”政策基础上的“胡萝卜”政策则效果更为明显.地方政府利用双边垄断的土地一级市场进行经济增长的竞次竞争行为和征地补偿价格非市场化不利于地方政府间土地集约利用上的合作.因此促进建设用地集约利用需着眼于:短期内将用地指标配置与不同地区的土地利用效率指标、资源禀赋和经济发展实际挂钩;在此基础上建立惩罚机制上的土地集约利用激励机制并实现结余土地指标充分市场化流转.推动征地补偿价格市场化和集体土地入市改革,针对不同地区实施足够大的差异化政绩考核体系.长期看,当以土地用途的分区管制代替指标管控并辅之以转移支付、户籍改革、税收补贴等举措,在促进建设用地集约利用的同时促进耕地保护和区域的差异城镇化发展.     

把高校建设成为安定团结的模范之地

习近平总书记十九大讲话中明确提出建设平安中国,加强和创新社会治理,维护社会和谐稳定,确保国家长治久安、人民安居乐业。作为高校一定要按照十九大的精神,做好高校稳定安全全方位的工作,确保学校稳定安全,把高校建设成为安定团结的模范之地。保持高校政治稳定,师生思想稳定,秩序稳定,风清气正和示范引领作用;建立维护高校和谐稳定和安全的制度体系并加大制度的执行力;建立健全高校和谐稳定和确保安全的责任制并加大考核力度;创新体制机制并应全力抓好落实;加强对师生的生命教育、心理健康教育和安全教育;加大人防、物防、技防建设,提高快速反应处置能力;有效维护国家安全,加强校园及周边治安环境的综合治理,保证校园周边和谐稳定安全;果断处置影响高校稳定的事件,保持高校和谐稳定。     

Multi-modal tempered stable distributions and prosses with applications to finance

Abstract

The assumption of underlying return distribution plays an important role in asset pricing models. While the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing is the unimodal distribution, numerous studies which have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets use multi-modal distribution. We introduce a new parsimonious multi-modal distribution, referred to as the multi-modal tempered stable (MMTS) distribution. In this article we also generate the exponential Lévy market models and derive the value-at-risk (VaR) induced from them. To demonstrate the advantages, we will present the results of the parameter estimation and the VaRs for financial data.     

Stable growth in native‐dependent multistate population dynamics

Users of multistate life tables and projections have recognized that the Markovian assumptions underlying such models are unduly restrictive and should be relaxed whenever data permit. Efforts to include the influences of previous occupancies have included the incorporation of place‐of‐birth dependence. This paper addresses the stable growth properties of such generalized multistate models. It shows how place‐of‐birth‐specific stable growth measures can be calculated without projection simply by solving the characteristic equation. An example using Canadian data illustrates the argument.     

Monitoring of autocorrelated general linear profiles

A collection of quality data represented by a functional relationship between response and explanatory variables is called a profile. In the literature, the errors of profiles are often assumed to be independent. However, quality data often exhibits time correlations in real applications. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate a general linear regression model with a between-profile autocorrelation. We propose a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average chart for monitoring shifts in the regression parameters, and an exponentially weighted moving average chart for monitoring shifts in the standard deviation. A simulation study reveals that our proposed schemes outperform competing existing schemes based on the average run length criterion. An example is used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme.     

基于资源协同的企业能力提升机理研究

将协同学理论应用于企业资源及其能力的研究,通过对哈肯协同学原理的分析及扩展研究,构建资源相互匹配与不匹配时的协同模型,来分析企业各资源要素之间协同状况对其发挥效能程度的影响,以此提出资源要素是企业能力的基础,资源协同是促进企业能力提升的源动力。由探讨可知,资源匹配程度与资源协同稳定点之间存在逻辑关系,阐释了资源效能发挥和企业能力提升之间的关系。     

Statistical control charts for monitoring the mean of a stationary process

Recently statistical process control (SPC) methodologies have been developed to accommodate autocorrelated data. A primary method to deal with autocorrelated data is the use of residual charts. Although this methodology has the advantage that it can be applied to any autocorrelated data it needs time series modeling efforts. In addition for a X residual chart the detection capability is sometimes small compared to the X chart and EWMA chart. Zhang (1998) proposed the EWMAST chart which is constructed by charting the EWMA statistic for stationary processes to monitor the process mean. The performance of the EWMAST chart the X chart the X residual chart and other charts were compared in Zhang (1998). In this paper comparisons are made among the EWMAST chart the CUSUM residual chart and EWMA residual chart as well as the X residual chart and X chart via the average run length.     

新冠疫情下我国人力资源服务效率分析

新型冠状病毒疫情给我国国民经济生产带来巨大影响,国家多措并举稳步推进企业复工复产,人力资源服务发挥着至关重要的作用。运用DEA和Malmquist指数方法分析疫情状态下我国人力资源服务的效率发现:综合效率整体表现良好,部分时间段内投入冗余致使资源浪费以及产出不足影响了服务效率,技术变化对全要素生产率造成较大影响,迁出人口、规模以上企业复工率和疫情环境对服务效率的影响最大。总结此次经验,将有助于完善我国人力资源服务模式、提升信息化水平和推动公共就业服务均等化进程。