县域经济竞争力的评价与分析

县域经济综合竞争力评价的对象是县域社会经济发展的整体状况,评价方法是综合性的,评价必须准确可靠,兼顾适用性和动态性.评价指标体系应遵循完备性、可比性、代表性、可行性等原则,选取能反映县域经济发展水平、发展活力和发展潜力的指标.采用综合因子分析方法,对安徽省2004年各县域经济27个指标进行评价分析,发现安徽省县域经济竞争力整体偏弱.     

文化研究视野下的社会流动研究

社会流动现象及相关问题在中国内地日渐突出.其间的原因是多方面的,其影响是多层次的.包括文化研究在内的诸多人文及社会科学,纷纷踏上社会流动研究的快车,广泛关注和讨论以农民工为代表的底层流动和迁徙,在中国引发了一股社会流动研究的热潮.中国内地学者对社会流动的研究正开始呈现出良好势态,并且已然取得一些值得肯定的成果,但客观地讲,他们的研究还并非成熟与完善.由于社会流动的内涵是什么、如何进行社会流动研究等一系列问题仍未得到很好的解答,中国内地的社会流动研究在一定意义上还处于盲动或者混乱之中,参与其间的学者难以进行有效对话,社会流动研究的意义难以得到彰显.     

中国旅游服务贸易竞争力的影响因素分析

改革开放以来,我国旅游服务贸易保持了快速、健康的发展,中国旅游服务贸易竞争力越来越强,但与世界旅游强国相比仍有很大差距.实证分析的结果表明:我国旅行社数量对提高旅游服务贸易竞争力有促进作用.旅游交通对我国旅游出口收入有显著影响,其影响力要大于旅游产业组织的影响.我国的旅游人力资源状况对于旅游服务贸易竞争力的影响不显著.     

充分发挥家庭因素在大学生就业过程中的作用

大学生就业竞争日趋激烈,影响大学生就业过程的因素很多,其中家庭因素对大学生就业能力的塑造不可忽视,家庭因素对大学生就业质量、就业观念、就业行为有较大影响当前应合理利用家庭因素促进大学生就业.     

由情感因素看教师角色的转换

情感因素在现代教育特别是现代外语教育中的地位越来越突出.积极情感可显著提升教学质量,积极情感的养成需要教师对其角色进行调整.具体来讲,教师要通过尊重学生的个性化选择、以诚相待和培养学生自信心等方法,实现自身由"讲师"向"导师"的角色转换.     

Intergenerational class mobility in contemporary Britain: political concerns and empirical findings

In Britain in recent years social mobility has become a topic of central political concern, primarily as a result of the effort made by New Labour to make equality of opportunity rather than equality of condition a focus of policy. Questions of the level, pattern and trend of mobility thus bear directly on the relevance of New Labour's policy analysis, and in turn are likely be crucial to the evaluation of its performance in government. However, politically motivated discussion of social mobility often reveals an inadequate grasp of both empirical and analytical issues. We provide new evidence relevant to the assessment of social mobility - in particular, intergenerational class mobility - in contemporary Britain through cross-cohort analyses based on the NCDS and BCS datasets which we can relate to earlier cross-sectional analyses based on the GHS. We find that, contrary to what seems now widely supposed, there is no evidence that absolute mobility rates are falling; but, for men, the balance of upward and downward movement is becoming less favourable. This is overwhelmingly the result of class structural change. Relative mobility rates, for both men and women, remain essentially constant, although there are possible indications of a declining propensity for long-range mobility. We conclude that under present day structural conditions there can be no return to the generally rising rates of upward mobility that characterized the middle decades of the twentieth century - unless this is achieved through changing relative rates in the direction of greater equality or, that is, of greater fluidity. But this would then produce rising rates of downward mobility to exactly the same extent - an outcome apparently unappreciated by, and unlikely to be congenial to, politicians preoccupied with winning the electoral 'middle ground'.     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

英语专业基础阶段听力课教学中的困难因素与对策

本文根据第二语言习得理论并结合教学实践 ,着重探讨英语专业基础阶段听力课教学中的困难因素和提高听力课教学质量的主要基本技能。     

影响英语听力理解的若干因素及教学措施

本文分析了影响英语听力理解的若干因素 ,重点从知识、情感、文化和预测能力等方面进行了探讨 ,并在此基础上提出“促进知识的迁移 ,提高识别语言的能力”等若干教学措施 ,将教学设计的方法用于听力教学过程。     

Asymptotic Bias in Parameter Estimation of AR-Processes Using Recursive Least Squares with Exponential Forgetting

The recursive least squares technique is often extended with exponential forgetting as a tool for parameter estimation in time-varying systems. The distribution of the resulting parameter estimates is, however, unknown when the forgetting factor is less than one. In this paper an approximative expression for bias of the recursively obtained parameter estimates in a time-invariant AR( n_a ) process with arbitrary noise is given, showing that the bias is non-zero and giving bounds on the approximation errors. Simulations confirm the approximation expressions.